Makroökonomische Daten: 06 – 10 Mai 2013

Mag 6, 2013

Minute Read

In the euro area, March industrial output data will shed some light on the state of health of the economy. We expect output to drop slightly in France and Italy, and to stagnate in Germany. On the whole, industrial output in the opening months of 2013 recovered compared to the end of last year, but indications from surveys point to a slowdown early in the Spring….……

This will be a very quiet week in terms of economic data releases and events in the United States. The only new developments will come from the release of labour flow data, which the Fed has added to the variables to be monitored in assessing the evolution of the labour market scenario.

Monday 6 May
Euro area

The second estimate of the composite PMI could bring an upward revision to 46.6 from a preliminary index of 46.5, as the PMI manufacturing was upgraded by two tenths; on the contrary, there are downside risks on the PMI services as the EU Commission’s survey outlined a weaker trend in April. In our view, the slowdown in business confidence in March and April will prove temporary, as it reflects a hiatus in the ongoing recovery of domestic demand.

Retail sales are expected to drop slightly in March: -0.2% m/m, from -0.3% m/m the previous month. Sales were down in Germany and Spain, but rose by 0.7% m/m in France. The March rate, if confirmed, would leave sales growth at +0.1% q/q in 1Q 2013, from -1.5% q/q. Beyond quarterly volatility, the underlying trend of consumption remains weak, due to labour market conditions and to sluggish nominal wages growth.

Tuesday 7 May
Euro area

France Industrial output is forecast down by 0.2% m/m in March, from +0.7% m/m in February. Manufacturing sector output should prove stagnant, after increasing by +0.8% m/m the previous month. The production of energy is expected to drop by 1.4%m/m, after rising in the two previous months. The March drop would confirm output at -0.2% q/q from -2.6% q/q at the end of 2012. Thanks to the positive contribution of the energy component, industrial output should remain unchanged on average, after declining by -1.9% q/q in 4Q 2012. Therefore, industry’s contribution to GDP growth is estimated to have been zero, however, sentiment surveys point to a slowdown in value added in the services sector, therefore we expect GDP to contract by -0.2% q/q, following a -0.3% q/q rate at the end of 2012. The INSEE survey highlighted a slowdown in the manufacturing sector in April, and we do not rule out a further drop in GDP in the Spring. The average French GDP growth rate in the year is forecast at -0.1%.

Germany. Orders of manufactured goods are forecast to increase further in March, albeit at a slower pace in (+0.6% m/m) than in February (+2.3% m/m). Up to March, the IFO and PMI surveys outlined an improvement in the orders trend. Given the weak start to the year, orders should be down by -0.1% q/q in 1Q 2013, after rising by +1.0% q/q in December 2012. April surveys detected a slowdown in demand.

United States

The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release March data on “Job Openings and Labour Turnover” (JOLTs). The data provide a monthly update on openings, hirings and separations (layoffs and quits). The Fed has indicated that it considers these data an important integration of the contents of the employment report. The February JOLT report recorded an increase in openings, to levels in line with May 2008 (+11.3% from February 2012, and +8.7% vs. January 2013), with indications consistent with a likely acceleration in hirings in the following months. March data may outline a retreat due to the reductions in positions tied to Defence
Department contracts and related to the public spending cuts.

The House Energy subcommittee will discuss US policy on energy exports: this is an important topic for the future trends of the oil and natural gas markets, as well as for economic growth at large. In the months ahead Congress will have to express its views on the possibility to export crude energy commodities; a report published in the autumn had given a favourable opinion on the export of oil and natural gas, blocked for now for reasons of national interest. Congress’s decisions on this front will be crucial, not only for the development of the energy sector, but also for economic growth and for the evolution of the trade deficit in the medium term.

Wednesday 8 May
Euro area
Germany. Industrial output is seen unchanged in March, after rising by +0.5% m/m in February. In the quarter, output should be lower by -0.1% q/q, marking a recovery from – 2.6% q/q at the end of 2012. Therefore industry is estimated to have made a zero contribution to GDP growth. We expect an acceleration in value added in the services sector, as the services PMI and IFO indices in the opening three months of this year recovered significantly compared to the previous two quarter. The construction component trend is still clouded with uncertainty, as it may have been held back by adverse weather conditions. On the whole, we stick to our forecast for +0.1% q/q growth in German GDP at the beginning of 2013, from -0.6% q/q in 4Q 2012 (first estimate due out on 15 May).

Friday 10 May
Euro area

Industrial output could drop again in March, by -0.3% m/m in our estimation, from – 0.8% m/m in February. In year-on-year terms, output would worsen to -10.3% in unadjusted terms, and to -7.5% adjusted by working days (one less in March than in the same month last year). As a result, the distance from the pre-crisis peak in activity (April 2008) would be – 24.2%. In any case, output would close 1Q 2013 showing a stabilisation (-0.1% q/q), after crashing (-2.2% q/q) at the end of 2012. However, a further decline in the present quarter is more than likely, as the forward-looking indices available so far do not point to an exit from recession in the months ahead.

Appendix

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