Makroökonomische Daten – 19-23 September 2011 (Englisch) .…
Monday 19 September
United States
Tuesday 20 September
Euro area
Owing to the marked turbulence in the markets and the considerable uncertainty, the ZEW index is expected to fall to -48 from -37.6 before, virtually the pre-Lehman levels. The index of the present situation should fall to 48 from 53.5 and there is scope for a further correction in the coming months since the indicator is still above the long-term mean.
New starts are expected to fall to 580k in August from 604k in July. The August employment report recorded a fall in payrolls in the construction sector, lending weight to the forecast of weak data on starts. In July starts were virtually steady, showing a sizeable contraction in the single-family segment offset by growth in multi-family homes. August should show a correction in multi-family units and a slight recovery in single homes. Permits should also be down, slipping to 585k from 601k in July. The data are consistent with a lack of trend in the sector.
Wednesday 21 September
United States
Sales of existing homes are expected to rise to 4.8M units ann. in August, following the fall to 4.67M in July. According to this forecast, sales should return to the June levels. Pending home sales were positive and point to sales returning to the 2Q11 sales average. However, the sharp fall in confidence since August, coupled with weak mortgage application data, likely point to increased caution in the sector.
The FOMC meeting should end with another step forward on the path to further monetary stimulus. The vote should again show a broad split, with three explicit dissenters. The committee should announce a programme of long-end securities purchasing vs. sales at the short-end. The effectiveness of the programme to stimulate growth would be modest and partly depends on the Treasury’s debt management stance. The adoption of a QE3 programme is contingent on a further deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and the fiscal policy indications, and in any case it would not be considered until year-end.
Euro area
Factory orders should be up 0.5% mom in July given the vigour of the German numbers. The PMI and confidence surveys signal a slowdown in orders as of August. A clearer view of the underlying trend in European industry will only be possible after the summer.
Household confidence might worsen further in September, falling to -17.7 from -16.5. The market turbulence and the see-saw newsflow on the crisis are depressing household sentiment, pushing back spending plans.
Friday 23 September
Euro area
The composite PMI might fall to 50.3 in September from 50.7 before. The index is thus nudging stagnation. After correcting sharply last month, the manufacturing PMI might remain broadly steady at 49.0, while services might slip to 51.0 from 51.5. Only the real data for September will afford insight into the actual extent of the cycle slowdown; at this time the sentiment surveys might over-react in the wake of the financial crisis.
France. The manufacturing business confidence index is expected to fall to 102 in September from 105 before (the figure relates to July since INSEE does not publish the survey in August).
Specifically, we expect a downward revision to output expectations for the coming months. The index would still remain above the long-term mean of 99.
In Belgium economic confidence is expected to fall to -8.9 from -7.8. The manufacturing survey breakdown will be of interest, particularly the trend in export orders; a steep fall might foreshadow a correction in the IFO due out on 26 September.
Appendix
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