Makroökonomische Daten – 03-07 Oktober 2011 (Englisch) .…
In the Euro area the markets will be focused on developments in the debt crisis and the ECB meeting. The handful of economic data due out will confirm the fall in the PMI indices in September and will show a contraction both in Euro area retail sales and in industrial production in Germany in August. However, it is only with the “hard” data for September/October that it will be possible to assess the actual size of the current Euro area slowdown, leaving aside the summer volatility and the effects of the financial crisis on the surveys.
The coming week is packed with data in the United States, bringing the main September indicators. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM should remain broadly steady at just above 50, while auto sales are expected to accelerate. The employment report should show improving payrolls growth, although the unemployment rate should rise to 9.2%.
Monday 3 October
Euro area
_ The final reading of the September PMI manufacturing should confirm a further fall to 48.4 after the index slipped below 50 in August for the first time in almost two years. The first estimate of the Italian PMI might show a dip to 46 from 47. The level of the PMI index is now consistent with stagnation of economic activity in industry.
United States
_ Construction spending is expected to be down 0.1% mom in August. Residential building should contract slightly in light of the negative data on new starts and the stability of the NAHB confidence index. Commercial building should continue the recent positive trend, while spending the public sector should continue to shrink.
_ The manufacturing ISM should be little changed in September, slipping to 50.1 from 50.6 in August. The regional surveys were generally weak, showing corrections for the Empire and the Chicago PMI and an improvement in the Philly Fed, although it had plunged in August (September gain to -17 from -30 in August). The August survey breakdown was generally weak, with new orders at 49.6 vs. 49.2 in July, and export orders easing to 50.5 from 54. The ISM remains consistent with GDP growth of between 2% and 2.5%.
_ Auto sales should provide the only genuinely positive development in the September macroeconomic data. Dealership indications as recorded by JD Power are positive: sales should accelerate to 12.7M units ann. in September, in the wake of the improvement in dealers’ auto inventories and demand freed up by the ongoing fall in household debt and financial commitments. Auto sales should help lift consumption in 3Q11.
Tuesday 4 October
Euro area
_ Producer prices should be down two-tenths in August, giving a year-on-year PPI slowing from 6.1% to 5.8%. The easing of pressures at the upstream end of the production chain is expected to continue through the coming months.
Wednesday 5 October
Euro area
_ The final reading of the composite PMI for September might confirm the flash estimate of 49.2 (first value below 50 in over two years), vs. 50.7 in August. The crisis should have hit the service sector harder than manufacturing in September (given the pressures on the banking sector). In general, the level of the composite PMI is now consistent with Euro area GDP growth of close to zero.
Retail sales are expected to be down -0.8% mom in August, after +0.3% mom in July. The contraction would reflect the increased volatility of sales in Germany over the summer (+4% mom in June, +0.3% mom in July, -2.9% mom in August). In any event, the recent decline in consumer confidence, which is starting to be impacted by the effects of the fiscal tightening, signals that the sales trend will remain subdued for a long time to come.
United States
_ The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the private sector should be roughly stable at 91k in September (from 90k the previous month).
_ The non-manufacturing ISM should correct to 52.5 in September from 53.3 in August. The index surprisingly rose in August: the survey breakdown was quite positive, showing gains in orders and activity expanding for 10 out of 15 subsectors. Most sectors should continue to expand in September, although the growing uncertainty and the correction in the markets should put downward pressure on the activity indicators.
Thursday 6 October
Euro area
_ Germany. Factory orders might bounce by an estimated half a point in August after falling by -2.8% mom in July. Year-on-year, orders would slow to 5.4% from 8.7%, consistent with the less benign international environment (the uncertainty surrounding the outlook as a result of the debt crisis is probably starting to hold back several business investment decisions).
Friday 7 October
Euro area
_ Germany. Industrial production is expected to be down -1.5% mom in August after the exceptional +4% mom recorded in July. Year-on-year, output would slow from 10.1% to 7.3% (retaining a more than acceptable growth rate). The surveys also signal, looking forward, less vigorous industrial activity in Germany, although it remains in better shape than in other countries and is certainly not set on a recession path.
United States
_ The September should show non-farm payrolls growth of 70k. The weekly claimant figures showed a small correction in the September recording week vs. the corresponding week in August, but the overall dynamic should be bolstered by the return of 46k Verizon workers who went on strike in August. The public sector should continue to shed workers: the private sector is expected to have added 105k jobs last month. The worsening market crisis in the last month has made businesses more cautious, slowing employment growth which was already subdued before the summer. The unemployment rate might rise to 9.2% from 9.1% in August: the Conference Board consumer confidence survey for September showed a further small deterioration in the view of the labour market and suggests a fresh rise in the unemployment rate. In addition, the employment data derived from the individual states were generally more negative than the nationwide report showed and signal the risk of downward revisions to August. Hourly wags should pick up 0.2% mom after slipping by -0.1% mom in August. In general, the labour remains extremely weak and the overall situation will help persuade Congress to allow several income-support measures in 2012, despite the aggressive anti-deficit rhetoric of the Republicans.
Appendix
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