Makroökonomische Daten – 10 – 17 Juni 2011 (Englisch)

Giu 10, 2011

Minute Read

The coming week is relatively thin on data in the Euro area. The figures on Italy and the whole Euro area will complete the round of industrial production data for April: we expect a small contraction but not the start of a cycle reversal. …

Inflation in France and across the entire Eurozone in May should be confirmed as slowing thanks to the cooling of fuel prices; but further falls from the current levels will be very slow over the coming months. Euro area employment will continue to improve gradually.

A slew of data is due out in the United States. The first June surveys should moderate the corrections seen in May. The May PPI and CPI should show moderation thanks to the fall in energy prices, but the core indices will continue to trend gradually up. May retail sales will be held back by the sharp correction in the auto sector. Industrial production should grow in May after stagnating in April.

Monday 13 June

Euro area

Italy. Industrial production is expected to be broadly stagnant in April (we estimate -0.1% mom) after expanding by four-tenths in March. Year-on-year, output would slow further, turning negative (-2.1% yoy) in raw terms owing to fewer working days; adjusted for this effect, the slowdown would be less pronounced (1.8% from 3.1%). In any event, production would be on track for appreciable growth in the current quarter, after small contractions in the previous two quarters. In general, we expect the recovery, albeit modest, to continue in industry in the months ahead.

Tuesday 14 June

United States

The PPI is expected to be up 0.1% mom in May, after average changes of 0.8% mom between September and April. The headline index should show a very negative contribution from energy, amid a still substantial and positive rise in food. The core PPI should be up 0.2% mom, roughly in line with the recent trend of between 0.2% and 0.3%. The core index should continue to show a robust price dynamic in the auto sector, possibly accelerating in the wake of the post-earthquake inventories problems

Retail sales should be down 0.1% mom in May, driven down by the correction in the auto sector and the petrol price. Ex auto, sales should be up 0.4% mom. The price of petrol has fallen by 4% since the start of May. Even though auto sales fell heavily in May according to dealership data (-10.5%), the fall will only be partly made up by a likely upward price effect. The weekly sales data remain moderately positive. The Beige Book reported a slowdown in sector activity on account of temporary factors (weather, high prices in the previous, auto sector supply-side issues). Sales ex auto and petrol should be slightly positive in nominal terms and should thus accelerate in real terms on the previous months.

Wednesday 15 June

Euro area

Industrial production in the Euro area is expected to be down -0.4% mom in April after -0.1% mom in March. This would be small beer after the average gains of 0.7% mom seen between October and February. Year-on-year, output would slow from 5.7% to 4.6% yoy. April production fell both in core countries like Germany, France, Holland and Austria and in peripherals like Greece, Spain and Portugal. Industry might make no contribution to growth this quarter, which signals the risk of a marked slowdown in GDP from 0.8% qoq in 1Q11.

France. Consumer prices are expected to rise by just one-tenth in May after 0.3% mom in April. Inflation would thus fall one-tenth to 2% yoy (2.2% on the harmonised index). The fall in fuel prices during the month was crucial. Looking to the coming months, France should keep inflation below the Euro area average.

United States

The CPI should be unchanged month-on-month in May. The core index should be up 0.2% mom, the third gain of this size in four months, confirming the uptrend in core inflation. Energy and food prices should make a negative contribution to the monthly dynamic, for the first time in 11 months, although trend growth should be up again (to 3.3% yoy from 3.2% yoy in April). The core index will continue to show a positive contribution from notional rents and rents, with a possible acceleration in the latter item. Auto prices are still rising. Core inflation should continue the uptrend initiated in November 2010, accelerating to 1.4% yoy from 1.3% yoy in April.

The NY Fed Empire survey should fall to 11 in June, after tumbling to 11.9 in May (-9.9 points). The May manufacturing data were uniformly weak, and according to the Beige Book the NY district recorded a slowdown in growth vs. steady expansion in most other areas. A further correction in orders and activity is likely, although they should stay positive. Prices paid should also be down, while prices received should continue the uptrend stretching back to mid-2009.

Industrial production is expected to be up 0.2% mom in May, after remaining steady in April. Output will be held back by a decline in activity in utilities owing to temperatures below the seasonal mean. The manufacturing sector, on the other hand, should show solid growth in light of the increase in hours worked in the sector recorded in the employment report. The auto sector correction seen in May owing to the effects of the Japanese earthquake should already be over and production should rise slightly in May, followed by a more substantial bounce in the following months. Capacity utilisation should rise to 77% from 76.9% in April, close to the average for the last ten years (77.2% since start-2000).

Thursday 16 June

Euro area

Euro area inflation should be confirmed down one-tenth at 2.7% yoy in May. Prices should have remained steady in the month. The core dynamic is expected to edge higher, from 1.6% to 1.8% yoy. The cooling of fuel prices in recent weeks has allayed the risks surrounding CPI. However, inflation will fall extremely slowly and will return in line with the ECB target between February and March.

Euro area employment is expected to be up slightly in 1Q11, expanding by one-tenth vs. 0.2% qoq in 4Q10. The year-on-year change, which turned positive at end-2010 for the first time after two years, would further improve to 0.4% from 0.2%. Despite the persistence of a wide gap between core and peripheral countries, Euro area employment is expected to improve further in the coming months, albeit only slightly.

United States

New starts are expected to rise to 535k in May (+2.3% mom) from 523k in April (which corresponded to a correction of -10.6% mom). The recovery should be robust in the multifamily unit segment, which is now set on an uptrend (+6.6% yoy) owing to the more vigorous rental demand and a stock of occupied units closer to the available total. The single-family segment should also record a gain after plunging 5.1% mom in April, whilst remaining on a very negative trend. Permits should fall to 555k from 563k (revised from 551k), confirming the stabilisation of activity in a narrow range since year-end 2009, at between 535k and 575k units.

The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to 5 in May from 3.9 in April. The index has fallen violently from 43.4 in March. Even though the Beige Book reports weak activity for the district, there is scope for a small improvement. Prices paid should continue to fall (from 48.3 in May) and orders should pick up after falling to 5.4 in May. The employment component should stick close to the level seen in May (22.1). The manufacturing sector should accelerate from July.

Friday 17 June

United States

Household confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan should rise slightly to 75 in June (preliminary) from 74.3 (final) in May. The survey should show a slight increase in both the view of the present situation and expectations.

Appendix
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