Makroökonomische Daten: 15 – 19 Oktober 2012 (Englisch)

Ott 15, 2012

Minute Read

The week will be a rather quiet one in terms of economic data releases, and focus will be mostly on the outcome of the European Council meeting of 18-19 October, which is expected to yield a roadmap on the banking union process……

The most important release due in the week is the German ZEW index (first confidence index for October), which should build on the rebound recorded in September. Euro area inflation will be confirmed at 2.7% in September, with the core index staying lower than the ECB target.

Busy calendar of data releases this week in the United States. Regional manufacturing sector surveys should rise back in October, closing in part the gap versus the ISM. Retail sales should be up in September, in part due to price increases, and in part driven by demand for autos and electronics; manufacturing output should come in broadly flat, whereas existing home sales are expected to decline. The CPI should mark another sharp rise in September, driven by gasoline
and food.

Monday 15 October
United States
– The NY Fed Empire index should climb back in October to -1 from -10.4 in September. The regional surveys were much poorer than the ISM over the summer, and there is room for a narrowing of the differential: the correlation between the ISM and Empire indices points to a 8.3 reading for the Empire. Summer data have been extraordinarily weak over the past three years, and may reflect seasonal adjustment difficulties, following the huge corrections
recorded during the recession. In any case, the underlying indications, beyond the volatility of sub-periods, remain compatible with a very modest growth in activity, only just better than stagnation.

– Retail sales should be up in September by 1% m/m, from +0.9% m/m in August. The aggregate is expected to be driven by autos, gasoline, and electronics (iPhone), as opposed to widespread weakness elsewhere, based on the information provided by weekly sales. Auto sales were surprisingly strong in the month (+2.9% m/m), and a portion should support consumption. Gasoline prices have increased in October, and should contribute to driving up sales, albeit less so than in August (5.5% m/m). Retail sales net of autos are forecast to be up by 0.8% m/m, as in the previous month. October data, even net of autos and gasoline, should lead to a modest acceleration in consumption growth, although the contribution of the electronics sector is temporary, and we do not expect household spending to exceed 2% in real terms in the next few quarters.

Tuesday 16 October
Euro area
– September inflation in the euro area is expected to be confirmed at 2.7% y/y, from 2.6% y/y in August. The detailed estimate should show a +0.7% m/m increase, in parte due to pressures from energy and food prices, and to the VAT rate hike in Spain. Underlying core inflation as monitored by the ECB (net of energy and fresh food prices) should stay at 1.7% y/y, excluding energy, tobacco and food prices, inflation is forecast stable at 1.5% y/y. In the months ahead, euro area inflation should progressively ease back towards 2%, although further tensions on energy and food commodities will slow the downtrend. Additional pressures could come from indirect taxation and administered prices, given the urgency of the fiscal consolidation process.
– Germany. In October, the ZEW confidence index of analyst and institutional investor expectations referred to the German economy should continue to show easing pessimism, thanks to slackening tensions on the financial markets. The expectations component, after recovering to -18.2 in September (from -25.5 in August), could improve further, to -14; assessments of the current situation are also expected to brighten, after worsening unexpectedly in September, and the index could rise to 15 from 12.6.

United States
– The CPI is estimated to be up by 0.5% m/m in September, driven by gasoline price increases and accelerating prices in the food sector. The core rate is estimated at +0.2% m/m, following two +0.1% m/m changes. Clothing & apparel, education, and hotel prices should reaccelerate after moderate changes or slight contractions; the upward thrust from the shelter component (in particular rents and imputed rents) observed in the past year and a half should stabilise.
Core inflation should climb back to 2% y/y, from 1.9% y/y in August.
– Industrial production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in September. The employment report drew a weak picture of work hours in the manufacturing sector in September; activity in the auto sector dropped. Manufacturing sector output is estimated to have contracted in the month, balanced by a modest expansion in mining and utilities.
– The NAHB builders’ confidence index is estimated to rise further in October, to 41 from 40 in September.

Wednesday 17 October
United States
– Housing starts are expected to rise to a 770k in September, from 750k in August; the multifamily segment is estimated to recover, after contracting sharply in August. Work hours in the construction sector increased in September, and builders’ confidence is still on a solid uptrend.
Permits should rise to 805k from 801k in August, keeping up the moderately positive trend recorded since June 2011.

Thursday 18 October
Euro area
– The European Council meeting will discuss the state of the project to strengthen the economic and monetary union, and especially the proposals on a single banking supervision mechanism. The meeting will extend to Friday 19th.

United States
– The Philadelphia Fed index is forecast on the rise to 2 in October from -1.9 in September. The regional surveys were much poorer than the ISM throughout the summer, opening a persistently wide gap. As for the Empire, the Philly Fed index is expected to converge back towards levels in line with the historical relationship with the national index, rising back into marginally positive territory. In the closing months of the year, the manufacturing sector should experience positive growth, albeit extremely moderate.

Friday 19 October
Euro area
– The producer price index in Germany could slow down in September, staying flat vs. the previous month after rising by 0.5% in August; the year on year rate would be 1.4%, from 1.6% in August. Energy price moderation may have guided the slowdown at the end of the summer.

United States
– Existing home sales are estimated to have grown to 4.7 million ann. in September, from 4.82 million in August. Pending home sales were down in August, signalling a correction in final September sales, after the sharp increase seen in August. Sales will keep growing at a positive rate in any case, in line with all the other residential real estate sector indicators.

Appendix

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