Makroökonomische Daten : 16- 20 Januar 2012 (Englisch)

Gen 13, 2012

Minute Read

This week in the euro area the calendar of events is very poor indeed. Data releases are only due on Tuesday, and consist of the second inflation rate estimate (expected to be down by two– tenths to 2.8% y/y in December)…….…

and of the first January confidence index, the German ZEW (which we expect to prove less pessimistic, thanks to easing turbulence on the financial markets, the effects of the measures announced by the ECB, and the steps made towards a new “fiscal compact” at the European level).

This week a host of data releases are due in the United States, and should prove generally positive. The first January manufacturing sector surveys are expected to show an improvement.
December industrial output, housing starts and sales of existing homes should all be up sharply.
December CPI and PPI data should show moderation in terms of the headline indices, thanks to lower petrol prices. The core CPI will probably be affected by higher rents and airline fares, and record a further year-on-year rise.

Tuesday 17 January

Euro area

– Germany. The ZEW index is expected to show a slight recovery in confidence, on the back of easing turbulence on the financial markets in the past month, following the measures announced by the ECB and the first, cautious steps taken towards the definition of a “new fiscal compact” at the December EU Summit. We expect the forward-looking index to rebound to -49 from -53.8 (historical average: 24.6). The current situation index is expected to level off at 24, down from 26.8, but still above the long-term average.
– Eurostat’s detailed estimates should confirm euro area inflation at 2.8% y/y in December. The rate would be consistent with a 0.3% m/m rise in prices. The underlying trend should stay below the ECB target at 1.7% (from 1.6% previously). For the time being, the only risks to the inflation trend are posed by administered prices and indirect taxes, while the significant slack still present in the economy should help contain pressures on costs and wages.

United States
– The NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to follow up on its autumn normalisation path in January, rising to 13.5 from 9.53 in December. Last month’s survey index was positive, with orders, deliveries and employment all on the rise, and brightening expectations. The ISM was back close to its June levels, while the Empire is still well below values that would be compatible with the current expansion phase. In the months ahead the NY Fed’s survey is expected to show further improvements.

Wednesday 18 January
United States

– The December PPI is forecast stable in terms of the headline index, and up slightly at the core level (+0.1% m/m). The price of petrol should make a negative contribution to the monthly trend, despite the increase in oil prices at the end of the year. Auto prices are also expected to slow (after rising by 0.6% m/m in November), together with pharmaceuticals (after two consecutive +0.9% m/m increases). The price trend is expected to slow in the months ahead, thanks to the strengthening of the dollar and to the global slowdown, and despite tensions on the oil front.

– Industrial production in December is forecast to be up by 0.4% m/m, after rising only slightly in November (-0.2% m/m). The manufacturing sector should show a more upbeat trend (+0.6% m/m) in light of positive data on the production component of the ISM (59.9) and on working hours, as surveyed by the employment report. Utilities are expected to suffer a drop in production due to especially mild weather in December. Capacity utilization is forecast to increase to 78%, in line with the October rate.

Thursday 19 January
United States

– The December CPI should be up only very slightly, with the headline index on the rise by 0.1% m/m, and the core index by 0.2% m/m. The overall index will reflect the drop in petrol prices for the third consecutive month. The trend of the core component should be in line with November, driven by sharp rent increases, by a widespread upswing of the entire housing item (excluding energy prices), and by significant airline fare increases. On a year-on-year basis, the core CPI is forecast to be up by 2.3% y/y, from 2.2% y/y in November, probably hitting a peak before starting a decline that should last throughout most of 2012.

– The January Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to 11.5 from 10.3 in December. The survey has almost closed the gap vs. the ISM; December indications were positive, with both orders and employment on the rise. Manufacturing sector growth seems set to continue.

Friday 20 January
United States
– In December, housing starts are estimated to have grown to 695k from 680k in November.

The employment report highlighted an increase in the number of employed people in the construction sector (+17k, after two negative months), also thanks to favourable weather conditions. The multifamily segment of the construction sector should continue to grow at a sustained pace. The December construction company confidence survey scored a third consecutive monthly rise, to 21. The index is now on levels last recorded in May 2010, with all the components showing improvements, outlining a moderately positive future trend for the construction industry. Building permits are estimated to increase to 690k from 680k in November.

– Existing home sales are expected to increase to 4.75 million units in December, from 4.42 million in November. Sales contracts scored two strong consecutive rises, after three negative months, and point to accelerating sales in December, for the third month in a row.

Appendix
Analyst Certification
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.

Important Disclosures
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgement.
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (“Research Policy”). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com).
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and/or representatives and/or employees and/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).

Valuation Methodology
Trading Ideas are based on the market’s expectations, investors’ positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.

Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer’s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A’s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI’s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.

Source: BONDWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo – Research Department

Normal 0 14 MicrosoftInternetExplorer4

Newsletter