Makroökonomische Daten: 28 – 01 Juni 2012 (Englisch)

Mag 25, 2012

Minute Read

In the euro area, the economic confidence index will confirm the deterioration of the economic picture on a monthly basis. Business confidence is expected to worsen in Italy as well…..

Unemployment should be stable in Germany, as opposed to a rise to 11% in the euro area, and to 9.9% in Italy. Retail sales should prove sluggish in France in May, and in Germany in April.
Inflation is expected stable at 2.6% y/y in the euro area, and at 3.7% y/y in Italy, as opposed to slight increases in Germany, to 2.3% y/y, and in Spain (to 2.2% y/y). The trend of the M3 aggregate could pick up in April, to 3.5% y/y.

The main May data will be released next week in the US. The Employment Report should show a modest acceleration in the employment growth, after the significant slowdown recorded in March and April; the unemployment rate should be unchanged at 8.1%. The manufacturing ISM is expected to be down, after two consecutive increases, while the Chicago PMI is forecast to recover slightly. Consumer spending and personal income, and construction spending, should be moderately higher. Auto sales in May are expected to increase further. The second estimate of Q1 GDP should see a downward revision mainly due to lower inventories.

Monday 28 May
Euro area
– Italy. Business confidence could worsen further in May, to 89.0 from 89.5 the previous month, significantly below the long-term average, but still well above the 70.7 low hit in March 2009.
In the past three months, order books have worsened significantly, in the both the domestic and foreign segments, and this may have affected production. Uncertainty over the sovereign debt crisis will contribute to keeping expectations depressed in the months ahead.

United States
– Markets closed for Memorial Day.

Tuesday 29 May
Euro area
– Germany. Consumer prices are expected to drop by 0.1% m/m. The favourable seasonal effect should be offset in part by higher petrol and fuel prices. In year-on-year terms, inflation is forecast to decline by one-tenth to 2.0% y/y at the national level, as opposed to a slight rise in the harmonised rate, to 2.3% y/y. Inflation in Germany is expected to ease back to below 2.0% y/y as of September. The underlying inflation trend remains under control at 1.7% y/y.

United States
– Consumer confidence is forecast to correct slightly in May, to 68.5 from 69 in April. The lower price of gasoline is a positive for households, but stock market corrections and uncertain indications form the labour market should result in confidence stabilising at the same levels seen in the past 2-3 months. The weekly Bloomberg confidence index has been trending lower since mid-April, and is back around levels last seen at the end of January.

Wednesday 30 May
Euro area
– Euro area. The trend of the M3 is forecast to accelerate to 3.5% y/y from 3.2% y/y in April, in part because the liquidity injected by the ECB should start to filter through to the M3-M2 monetary aggregates, and also due to the steepening of the short end of the curve. The 3-month moving average could rise to 3.2% y/y from a previous rate of 2.8% y/y.

– Euro area. The EU Commission’s economic confidence index could drop further in May, to 91.9 from 92.8 the previous month. All sectors are expected to suffer, with especially sharp contractions in manufacturing (-11 from -9) and retail sales, based on national survey data.

– Germany. We expect retail sales to rise only modestly in (+0.2% m/m), after climbing by +1.6% m/m in March. Although households’ confidence deteriorated in April, sentiment among retail sector businesses has stayed on decent levels.

– Spain. Consumer prices should be up by 0.2% m/m, driven by energy prices. Inflation could rise to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y the previous month, at both the national and harmonised levels. Spanish inflation is expected to stay just above 2.0% y/y until the end of 2012.

Thursday 31 May
Euro area
– Euro area. The preliminary estimate should point to stable inflation at 2.6%y/y, although risks could be on the upside. Inflation is forecast to peak early in the summer, in July, at 2.8%.

– Germany. In May, unemployment should be flat, or down marginally, based on the indications provided by survey data on hiring intentions. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay in line with April levels, at 6.8%. in the months ahead, unemployment in Germany could be affected by the economic cyclical trend. While the country has proven more resilient than the rest of the euro area, in May the IFO declined and the PMI stabilised at 45.

– Italy. Consumer prices are expected to show a 0.1% m/m rise in May, once again fuelled by petrol and fuel prices. At the harmonised level, prices are forecast to increase by 0.2% m/m.
Inflation should remain stable at 3.3% y/y at the national level, and at 3.7% y/y in terms of the harmonised rate. In the second half of this year, easing pressures from energy prices will be more than balanced by the 2% rise in VAT in October. As a result, inflation will stay around its present levels.

– France. Retail sales are expected to be up in April by +0.3% m/m, after dropping sharply in March. Food and clothing prices are expected to recover after plunging in March. However, data on vehicle registrations suggest a decline in auto sales, which will limit the pick-up in overall retail sales. The marginal recovery in retail sales, which could materialise in April, may result in a contraction in consumption in the second quarter of the year, as proven by persistently low consumer confidence.

United States
– The ADP non-farm employment estimate is expected by the consensus to rise to 135k from 119k in April.
– The second estimate of Q1 GDP should see a downward revision to 1.8% q/q ann., from the advance estimate of 2.2% q/q ann. The main reason behind the overall revision should be a sharply lower inventory accumulation. As for foreign trade, stronger exports and imports should balance out; recent shipment data point to a possible upward revision to fixed nonresidential investment, which, however, would be offset by lower public construction spending. The revision of the estimate should not be interpreted, in and of itself, as a negative indication, as it should be determined mainly by inventories.

– The Chicago PMI should climb back in May to 57.5, after plunging to 56.2 in April. Last month’s survey was negative across the board, with all the main components showing sharp corrections, albeit from very high levels. The scenario for the auto sector remains positive, and a rise in May would be physiological, also embracing production and orders. However, the index should stay below the average of the first three months of the year (62).

Friday 1 June
Euro area
– Euro area. The unemployment rate could reach an average rate of 11% in the euro area, from a previous 10.9%. This would mark a historical high since 1992. The worsening of the cycle will continue to weigh on the labour market trend, in peripheral countries in particular.
– Italy. The unemployment rate will rise to 9.9% in April. Cyclical conditions point to a further worsening in the coming months. We expect the current cycle to peak in mid-2013 at over 10%.

United States
– The June Employment Report should highlight some improvement compared to April: nonfarm payrolls should amount to 160k, from 115k in April. In the private sector, payrolls should pick up by 170k, from 130k in April. In the past three months, the average non-farm employment was 176k, and 183k in the private sector. Employment growth should rise back towards average levels after two very weak months; new jobless claims stabilised in May on the same levels as April, after rising in March. Sector surveys at the regional level gave mixed indications on the labour market components: the Philadelphia Fed actually indicates a contraction, and the Empire index points to a stabilisation on April levels. The unemployment rate is expected flat at 8.1%, in the assumption that the participation rate stabilises at 63.6%; there are risks of the participation rate dropping by a further tenth between May and June, in the wake of the expiration of emergency unemployment benefits in another nine states in May (for a total drop of 239k jobless claims in the month). Hourly wages should accelerate vs. April (when they were flat), rising by 0.2% m/m.

– Consumer spending is expected to have risen in April by 0.3% m/m, based on moderate retail sales. The “control” aggregate, i.e. sales net of components which do not enter in the NIPA spending aggregate, performed reasonably well (0.4% m/m), although auto sales were flat and gasoline sales corrected due to lower prices. Personal income should increase by 0.3% m/m, in light of a modest employment change and flat hourly wages in April. The saving rate should stabilise at 3.8%, below the levels seen in the better part of 2011 (annual average of 4.7%). The PCE deflator should be up by 0.1% m/m, in line with the CPI. The core deflator is expected to come in higher by 0.2% m/m.

– The manufacturing ISM should retrace moderately in May, after rising in April: in May the index should drop to 53.5 from 54.8 in April, staying above the Q1 average. The ISM flash estimate, published for the first time by Markit on 24 May, is 53.9, down from 56.4 in April.
All components declined: new orders to 54.8 from 57.1, production to 54.1 from 56.6, employment to 54.3 from 57, Input and output price indices were also down. The overall index in May is back to the same levels seen in February 2012 and last autumn. These indications would be consistent with a drop of the ISM in May by around 2 points, to close to 52.5 from 54.8 in April. Regional surveys were mixed, with the Empire up sharply and the Philly Fed actually in negative territory. Recent manufacturing sector indicators point lower, although we believe the Philadelphia Fed’s plunge to be by all means excessive.

– Construction spending in April is expected to be up by 0.1% m/m. New housing starts were volatile over the previous months, partly due to weather conditions. However, buildings under construction are broadly stable, and point to modest changes in overall spending. Once again in April, public spending should be down, slightly more than outweighed by the expected improvement in private spending.

– Auto sales in May are forecast to rise slightly, to 14.5 million ann. from 14.4 million in April, hitting a high since August 2007. The end of May includes the long Memorial Day weekend, when sales incentives are typically put in place. The indications of both dealerships and sector analysts point to a new monthly rise: the auto sector is still growing at a much faster pace than that of overall demand. This situation should last throughout the next two years, as a result of pent-up demand generated by the prolonged slump in sales during the recession.

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