{"id":1026,"date":"2012-05-25T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-05-25T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/05\/25\/makrooekonomische-daten-28-01-juni-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-05-25T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-05-25T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-28-01-juni-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-28-01-juni-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 28 &#8211; 01 Juni 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the economic confidence index will confirm the   deterioration of the economic picture on a monthly basis. Business   confidence is expected to worsen in Italy as well&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <br \/><\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Unemployment should be stable in  Germany, as opposed to a rise to 11% in the euro area, and to 9.9% in  Italy. Retail sales should prove sluggish in France in May, and in  Germany in April.<br \/>Inflation is expected stable at 2.6% y\/y in the  euro area, and at 3.7% y\/y in Italy, as opposed to slight increases in  Germany, to 2.3% y\/y, and in Spain (to 2.2% y\/y). The trend of the M3  aggregate could pick up in April, to 3.5% y\/y.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The main May data will be released  next week in the US. The Employment Report should show a modest  acceleration in the employment growth, after the significant slowdown  recorded in March and April; the unemployment rate should be unchanged  at 8.1%. The manufacturing ISM is expected to be down, after two  consecutive increases, while the Chicago PMI is forecast to recover  slightly. Consumer spending and personal income, and construction  spending, should be moderately higher. Auto sales in May are expected to  increase further. The second estimate of Q1 GDP should see a downward  revision mainly due to lower inventories.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 28 May<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>.  Business confidence could worsen further in May, to 89.0 from 89.5 the  previous month, significantly below the long-term average, but still  well above the 70.7 low hit in March 2009.<br \/>In the past three months,  order books have worsened significantly, in the both the domestic and  foreign segments, and this may have affected production. Uncertainty  over the sovereign debt crisis will contribute to keeping expectations  depressed in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>United States<br \/>&#8211; Markets closed for Memorial Day.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 29 May<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>.  Consumer prices are expected to drop by 0.1% m\/m. The favourable  seasonal effect should be offset in part by higher petrol and fuel  prices. In year-on-year terms, inflation is forecast to decline by  one-tenth to 2.0% y\/y at the national level, as opposed to a slight rise  in the harmonised rate, to 2.3% y\/y. Inflation in Germany is expected  to ease back to below 2.0% y\/y as of September. The underlying inflation  trend remains under control at 1.7% y\/y.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Consumer confidence is forecast to correct slightly in May, to 68.5  from 69 in April. The lower price of gasoline is a positive for  households, but stock market corrections and uncertain indications form  the labour market should result in confidence stabilising at the same  levels seen in the past 2-3 months. The weekly Bloomberg confidence  index has been trending lower since mid-April, and is back around levels  last seen at the end of January.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 30 May<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Euro area<\/strong>.  The trend of the M3 is forecast to accelerate to 3.5% y\/y from 3.2% y\/y  in April, in part because the liquidity injected by the ECB should  start to filter through to the M3-M2 monetary aggregates, and also due  to the steepening of the short end of the curve. The 3-month moving  average could rise to 3.2% y\/y from a previous rate of 2.8% y\/y.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Euro area<\/strong>. The EU  Commission\u2019s economic confidence index could drop further in May, to  91.9 from 92.8 the previous month. All sectors are expected to suffer,  with especially sharp contractions in manufacturing (-11 from -9) and  retail sales, based on national survey data.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>. We expect retail  sales to rise only modestly in (+0.2% m\/m), after climbing by +1.6% m\/m  in March. Although households\u2019 confidence deteriorated in April,  sentiment among retail sector businesses has stayed on decent levels.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Spain<\/strong>. Consumer prices  should be up by 0.2% m\/m, driven by energy prices. Inflation could rise  to 2.2% y\/y from 2.1% y\/y the previous month, at both the national and  harmonised levels. Spanish inflation is expected to stay just above 2.0%  y\/y until the end of 2012.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 31 May<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Euro area<\/strong>.  The preliminary estimate should point to stable inflation at 2.6%y\/y,  although risks could be on the upside. Inflation is forecast to peak  early in the summer, in July, at 2.8%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>. In May, unemployment  should be flat, or down marginally, based on the indications provided  by survey data on hiring intentions. The unemployment rate is forecast  to stay in line with April levels, at 6.8%. in the months ahead,  unemployment in Germany could be affected by the economic cyclical  trend. While the country has proven more resilient than the rest of the  euro area, in May the IFO declined and the PMI stabilised at 45.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>. Consumer prices are  expected to show a 0.1% m\/m rise in May, once again fuelled by petrol  and fuel prices. At the harmonised level, prices are forecast to  increase by 0.2% m\/m.<br \/> Inflation should remain stable at 3.3% y\/y at the national level, and at  3.7% y\/y in terms of the harmonised rate. In the second half of this  year, easing pressures from energy prices will be more than balanced by  the 2% rise in VAT in October. As a result, inflation will stay around  its present levels.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>France<\/strong>. Retail sales are  expected to be up in April by +0.3% m\/m, after dropping sharply in  March. Food and clothing prices are expected to recover after plunging  in March. However, data on vehicle registrations suggest a decline in  auto sales, which will limit the pick-up in overall retail sales. The  marginal recovery in retail sales, which could materialise in April, may  result in a contraction in consumption in the second quarter of the  year, as proven by persistently low consumer confidence.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The ADP non-farm employment estimate is expected by the consensus to rise to 135k from 119k in April.<br \/>&#8211;  The second estimate of Q1 GDP should see a downward revision to 1.8%  q\/q ann., from the advance estimate of 2.2% q\/q ann. The main reason  behind the overall revision should be a sharply lower inventory  accumulation. As for foreign trade, stronger exports and imports should  balance out; recent shipment data point to a possible upward revision to  fixed nonresidential investment, which, however, would be offset by  lower public construction spending. The revision of the estimate should  not be interpreted, in and of itself, as a negative indication, as it  should be determined mainly by inventories.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The Chicago PMI should climb  back in May to 57.5, after plunging to 56.2 in April. Last month\u2019s  survey was negative across the board, with all the main components  showing sharp corrections, albeit from very high levels. The scenario  for the auto sector remains positive, and a rise in May would be  physiological, also embracing production and orders. However, the index  should stay below the average of the first three months of the year  (62).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 1 June<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Euro area. The  unemployment rate could reach an average rate of 11% in the euro area,  from a previous 10.9%. This would mark a historical high since 1992. The  worsening of the cycle will continue to weigh on the labour market  trend, in peripheral countries in particular.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. The  unemployment rate will rise to 9.9% in April. Cyclical conditions point  to a further worsening in the coming months. We expect the current cycle  to peak in mid-2013 at over 10%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The  June Employment Report should highlight some improvement compared to  April: nonfarm payrolls should amount to 160k, from 115k in April. In  the private sector, payrolls should pick up by 170k, from 130k in April.  In the past three months, the average non-farm employment was 176k, and  183k in the private sector. Employment growth should rise back towards  average levels after two very weak months; new jobless claims stabilised  in May on the same levels as April, after rising in March. Sector  surveys at the regional level gave mixed indications on the labour  market components: the Philadelphia Fed actually indicates a  contraction, and the Empire index points to a stabilisation on April  levels. The unemployment rate is expected flat at 8.1%, in the  assumption that the participation rate stabilises at 63.6%; there are  risks of the participation rate dropping by a further tenth between May  and June, in the wake of the expiration of emergency unemployment  benefits in another nine states in May (for a total drop of 239k jobless  claims in the month). Hourly wages should accelerate vs. April (when  they were flat), rising by 0.2% m\/m.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Consumer spending is expected to  have risen in April by 0.3% m\/m, based on moderate retail sales. The  \u201ccontrol\u201d aggregate, i.e. sales net of components which do not enter in  the NIPA spending aggregate, performed reasonably well (0.4% m\/m),  although auto sales were flat and gasoline sales corrected due to lower  prices. Personal income should increase by 0.3% m\/m, in light of a  modest employment change and flat hourly wages in April. The saving rate  should stabilise at 3.8%, below the levels seen in the better part of  2011 (annual average of 4.7%). The PCE deflator should be up by 0.1%  m\/m, in line with the CPI. The core deflator is expected to come in  higher by 0.2% m\/m.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The manufacturing ISM should  retrace moderately in May, after rising in April: in May the index  should drop to 53.5 from 54.8 in April, staying above the Q1 average.  The ISM flash estimate, published for the first time by Markit on 24  May, is 53.9, down from 56.4 in April.<br \/>All components declined: new  orders to 54.8 from 57.1, production to 54.1 from 56.6, employment to  54.3 from 57, Input and output price indices were also down. The overall  index in May is back to the same levels seen in February 2012 and last  autumn. These indications would be consistent with a drop of the ISM in  May by around 2 points, to close to 52.5 from 54.8 in April. Regional  surveys were mixed, with the Empire up sharply and the Philly Fed  actually in negative territory. Recent manufacturing sector indicators  point lower, although we believe the Philadelphia Fed\u2019s plunge to be by  all means excessive.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Construction spending in April  is expected to be up by 0.1% m\/m. New housing starts were volatile over  the previous months, partly due to weather conditions. However,  buildings under construction are broadly stable, and point to modest  changes in overall spending. Once again in April, public spending should  be down, slightly more than outweighed by the expected improvement in  private spending.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Auto sales in May are forecast  to rise slightly, to 14.5 million ann. from 14.4 million in April,  hitting a high since August 2007. The end of May includes the long  Memorial Day weekend, when sales incentives are typically put in place.  The indications of both dealerships and sector analysts point to a new  monthly rise: the auto sector is still growing at a much faster pace  than that of overall demand. This situation should last throughout the  next two years, as a result of pent-up demand generated by the prolonged  slump in sales during the recession.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the economic confidence index will confirm the deterioration of the economic picture on a monthly basis. 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