{"id":1031,"date":"2012-06-01T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-01T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/06\/01\/makrooekonomische-daten-4-8-juni-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-06-01T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-01T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-4-8-juni-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-4-8-juni-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 4 &#8211; 8 Juni 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will be on the ECB meeting, as well as on the  potential developments of the crisis in Spain and Greece&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <strong><br \/><\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">April industrial output data will be  down in all the main countries. GDP growth in Q1 should be confirmed at  zero, with net exports as the only driver of growth. The second reading  of the services and composite PMIs should confirm depressed figures. On  the other hand, inflation pressures are starting to ease, even upstream  of the production chain. Quiet calendar of data releases in the United  States next week. The May non-manufacturing ISM should recover part of  the significant drop recorded in April. The trade balance deficit is  expected to decrease in April, after rising considerably in March,  mostly thanks to a decline in oil prices. The Beige Book is not expected  to change the modest-growth outlook.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Monday 4 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Producer prices are expected to prove stable in April, after surging  (on average by +0.7% m\/m) in the first three months of the year. The  year-on-year trend of the PPI would slow significantly as a result, to  2.5% y\/y. Companies\u2019 assessment of input prices based on the  manufacturing PMI survey point to a further slackening of pressures  upstream of the production chain in the months to come.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 5 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second reading of the April  composite PMI should be confirmed at 45.9; after the upward revision (of  one tenth) of the manufacturing index, we do not exclude a downward  update on the services index; all in all, the composite index could  remain unchanged (falling sharply compared to the previous month). The  PMI\u2019s level is consistent with negative year-on-year GDP growth at least  until the third quarter of this year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales are expected to grow by  0.1% m\/m in April, after increasing by 0.6% m\/m in March. In the month,  sales were up in Germany and France, but plummeted in Spain. In any  case, the trend of consumer confidence indicates that retail sales trend  will remain weak.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Factory orders could drop by  1.2% m\/m in April, after surging unexpectedly by 2.2% m\/m in March. The  year-on-year change would drop even further into negative territory,  showing a contraction of over 4%. Based on survey data, the slowdown in  orders could continue in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The May non-manufacturing ISM should  recover part of the significant drop recorded in April, rising to 54.2  from 53.5. In April the composite index had dropped by 2.5 points,  marking the strongest decline since November 2008. The whole survey was  markedly negative, with the activity, orders, and employment components  all dropping sharply. Even the forecast recovery in May would not lead  the composite index back in line with the average of the first four  months of the year (55.9), although the trend would stay moderately  positive compared to the autumn months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 6 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second reading of Q1 GDP should  confirm the preliminary estimate, certifying a stagnation of economic  activity (both month-on-month and year-on-year) in the opening months of  2012. Broken down data should show a semi-stagnation (growth of just  one-tenth, in our estimation) of public and private consumption, and a  sharp drop (estimated at -1.3%) of investments. Exports, on the rebound  by almost one-and-a-half per cent after the decline seen at the end of  2011, should be the only component to support GDP (the contribution of  the foreign channel should amount to around four tenths of a point, in  line with the previous quarter). Surveys data signals the risk of a  slide back into negative GDP growth this quarter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Industrial output is expected  to drop by -1.3% m\/m in April, after surging unexpectedly by 2.8% m\/m in  March (probably on the back of seasonal factors). The year-onyear  change would slow back to 0.6%. The quarter would therefore get off to a  negative start, implying the risk of GDP contracting again in the  spring, after rebounding in the winter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Productivity in Q1 2012 should remain in  negative territory, in line with the preliminary estimate. The downward  revision of growth should lead to productivity also being corrected  downwards, to -0.6% q\/q from a preliminary estimate of -0.5% q\/q. Unit  labor costs should be revised to +2.2% q\/q.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Fed will publish the Beige Book  ahead of its 20 June meeting. The report should confirm the expansion of  manufacturing, and of the auto sector in particular; real estate should  also continue along its gradual uptrend. Retail sales figures should  point to ongoing growth, albeit at a slower pace than in Q1. Data on the  labour market and price trends will be important, and should confirm a  moderate employment growth scenario, with no pressures tied to wages;  the price trend is expected to confirm an easing in the upward tension  of input costs. The Beige Book should therefore be consistent with a  wait and see phase for both economic data and monetary policy, with  downside risks tied to fiscal policy and to the European debt crisis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 7 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">ECB meeting: The announcement of further  liquidity measures and\/or a rate cut next week is a very close call.  One can only hope that, at least verbally, the ECB will assure it stands  ready to act to protect systemic stability, as it remains the sole  European institution equipped with adequate tools that can be activated  swiftly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. The unemployment rate should  increase to 9.6% in Q1 2012, from 9.4% in the previous three months.  Conditions on the labour market should continue to worsen at least  throughout 2012. In harmonised EU terms, unemployment in France is  already 10% (in March), and is set to rise further in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 8 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Industrial output could contract  by four-tenths monthly in April, after rebounding by 0.5% in March. The  year-on-year rate would slip further into negative territory, both in  unadjusted terms and adjusted by workdays (respectively -9.7% and -7.2%  y\/y). There is a tangible risk of May and June bringing an acceleration  of the downtrend in production, also due to the effects of the recent  earthquake in Emilia Romagna.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The trade balance deficit is expected to  decrease to -49.5Bn in April, after increasing by 6.4Bn to -51.8Bn in  March. In May, the reduction of the deficit should be the result of a  sharper decline in imports than the expected contraction of exports.  Imports should feel the reduced impact of oil, as a result of a  contraction in both volumes and, especially, prices (-1.8% m\/m). As  regards exports, orders and deliveries were weak in the month and should  result in a modest decline.<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will be on the ECB meeting, as well as on the potential developments of the crisis in Spain and Greece&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1031","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}