{"id":1033,"date":"2012-06-01T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-01T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/06\/01\/viewpoint-greece-in-the-hope-that-the-new-elections-will-ease-tensions-sp-1543736329\/"},"modified":"2012-06-01T13:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-01T13:00:00","slug":"viewpoint-greece-in-the-hope-that-the-new-elections-will-ease-tensions-sp-1543736329","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/viewpoint-greece-in-the-hope-that-the-new-elections-will-ease-tensions-sp-1543736329\/","title":{"rendered":"Viewpoint: Disappointing labour market data in the US"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ECB echoed calls to the Eurogroup to take tangible action as proof   of its commitment to guaranteeing the continuity of the Monetary  Union&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, it could find the euro\u2019s fate  in its hands even before a decision is reached by governments.  Disappointing labour market data in the US.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his address to the European  Parliament\u2019s Economic Affairs Committee, the President of the ECB  encouraged governments to clarify their vision for the Monetary Union in  the years ahead. The only point mentioned explicitly was the \u201cbanking  union\u201d, to include a centralised supervisory body, a shared deposit  insurance scheme and resolution mechanism. A vague mention was also made  to the need to limit contagion among member states and to promote a  macroeconomic strategy that, combined with fiscal consolidation, can  boost growth. How exactly should this encouragement be interpreted? Is  this is a necessary condition for monetary authorities to intervene, or  is it the ECB\u2019s belief that these steps alone could eliminate the need  for the decisive central bank action that many of us consider crucial?  To this avail, Draghi hinted at the fact that the ESM could function  better than the EFSF. The same topic was touched on by the Governor of  the Bank of Italy, Visco, who called for the ESM to be able to directly  recapitalise banks and intervene directly on the securities market \u201cwith  procedures that are more flexible and less penalising for the  beneficiary countries\u201d. A few days earlier, the President of the  Bundesbank, Weidmann, had also asserted that a crossroads has been  reached, and that it is now the time to decide where the Monetary Union  is going; specifically: \u201cthere is currently a trend towards sharing  risks, but no willingness to give up national budget sovereignty to  Europe in return\u201d.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">All considered, the ECB does not seem  about to rapidly implement the shock therapy most of us would like to  see it embrace. Rather, it seems to be trying to force the Eurogroup to  make the European Stability Mechanism work, and to tangibly prove its  long-term commitment to the Monetary Union, therefore providing a  political shield for its own choices. These are reasonable requests,  also considering that it should be apparent to all that the perception  of the risk of the Monetary Union collapsing is destroying, one piece at  a time, the single market. Unfortunately, this strategy implies at the  very least a month of suffering and tensions: the ratification process  of the ESM Treaty is still far from complete, the European Council is  due to meet at the end of June, and the procedures established for the  functioning of the ESM seem designed more to discourage access than to  guarantee success of the assistance operations. In light of the above,  it is possible that, willingly or not, the ECB may once again be forced  to decide of the Monetary Union\u2019s fate before the political authorities  will have clearly indicated that the chosen path is a deepening of the  Union.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the United States labour market data  was worse than expected in May. New non-farm payrolls came in at 69k,  and the April figure was revised downwards to 77k from 115k: the 3-  month average is 96k. Private sector employment increased by 82k; the  change in the manufacturing sector was positive again (+12k); the  increase in the service sector was 97k (3m average: 100k), whereas the  construction sector and other industry suffered contractions of -15k and  -28k respectively. The public sector burned 13k jobs, broadly in line  with the previous months. The employment data in the household survey  (more volatile than the establishment survey) see an rise of +424k after  2 large drops (3m average: 74k). The unemployment rate rose to 8.2%  from 8.1% in April, returning to March levels. The workforce grew 642k,  after two markedly negative months. Higher participation, by twotenths  to 63.8%, explains the rise in the unemployment rate. The augmented  unemployment rate, including also workers employed part-time for  economic reasons, was up by 3 tenths to 14.8%. Hours worked declined  (-0.2% m\/m) and hourly wages increased by only 0.1% m\/m, 1.7% a\/a. The  household survey results partly mitigate the very negative indications  of the business survey. Weakness in April-May could in part be due to a  correction of figures inflated by the favourable weather conditions at  the beginning of 2012. However, survey data was undoubtedly weak and  indicative of further downside risks to growth. The Fed is vigilant.<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<br \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 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The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ECB echoed calls to the Eurogroup to take tangible action as proof of its commitment to guaranteeing the continuity of the Monetary Union&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-analysis"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1033"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1033\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}