{"id":1041,"date":"2012-06-11T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-11T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/06\/11\/makrooekonomische-daten-11-15-juni-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-06-11T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-11T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-11-15-juni-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-11-15-juni-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 11 &#8211; 15 Juni 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will stay on the developments of the debt crisis, with Spain at the fore&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  few monthly data releases in the euro area this week should reveal a  marked contraction in industrial output in April, confirm the  containment of inflation pressures in May, and show an acceleration of  the employment downtrend in 1Q 2012. The second reading of Italian GDP  data should confirm a sharp contraction in domestic demand.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy  calendar in the United States, with important releases coming up.  Economic data should generally point to a slowdown in growth. In May,  the CPI, PPI and import prices should be down on lower energy prices,  whereas core indices are expected to keep rising at their recent pace of  +0.2% m\/m. Retail sales are expected to have contracted in May, given  lower gasoline prices and auto sales; industrial output should also be  down. The first June data should not ch\u2019ange the overall picture of  positive but weaker growth, with consumer confidence and the Empire  survey expected to slip.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 11 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France.  Industrial output is expected to have risen slightly in April, after  contracting in March. The monthly change could amount to 0.2%, from  -0.9% the previous month, that would result in zero growth in both  annual and quarterly terms. Beyond a possible, limited rebound in April,  confidence indices are pointing to persistently weak productive  activity in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  The second reading of 1Q 2012 GDP should confirm the preliminary rates  of -0.8% q\/q (from -0.7% in 4Q 2011) and -1.3% y\/y. Broken down data  should show declines across the board for domestic components.  Investments should be the most affected item, down by around 2.5%.  Consumption is expected to decline more or less in line with 4Q 2011  (-0.7%). The only positive contribution to GDP is expected to come from  foreign trade (around 0.5% in our estimation).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 12 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Import  prices in May are expected to fall by -1% m\/m, dropping for the second  month in a row, due to lower energy prices and dollar appreciation. On a  yearly basis, import prices should be down -0.6% y\/y, turning negative  for the first time since October 2009.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 13 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France.  Inflation is forecast to drop slightly in May, to 2% from 2.1% in  April. In the month, the consumer price index should be down by 0.05%,  following a 0.1% rise in April. The slowdown in inflation could be  guided by a decline in the energy component, which should continue to  moderate after rising sharply at the beginning of the year. Forecasts  are for a slower inflation trend over the summer months, followed by a  slight increase towards the end of the year, due to the effects of the  planned VAT hike. The harmonised price index should be unchanged in the  month, whereas the harmonised inflation rate should level off at 2.3%  Industrial output in the euro area is estimated to have contracted by at  least 1% m\/m in April, after dropping by -0.3% m\/m the previous month.  The year-on-year rate will dive even further into negative territory, to  -2.5% y\/y. Once again, the strongest negative contributions to the euro  area aggregate will come from Italy (-1.9% m\/m) and Spain (-0.7% m\/m),  but also, and most significantly, from Germany (-2% m\/m). Volatility is  particularly high in Portugal (-6.5% m\/m in April, from +3.2% in March).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In May,  the PPI is estimated to have dropped by -1% m\/m, as a result of lower  energy prices. The indications provided by the ISM price index, and by  the trend of oil and food prices, are clear, and point to an  acceleration in the downtrend of producer prices. The core index should  keep rising at a monthly pace of +0.2% m\/m, as has been the case in the  past six months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail  sales are expected to have slowed by -0.3% m\/m in May, due to a strong  negative price effect, combined with weakness in the auto sector. Net of  the auto component, sales are estimated to have decreased by -0.1% m\/m.  Net of the auto, gasoline, and construction material components, the  index should be up by 0.3% m\/m. Auto sales decreased in the month, and  should result in the first contraction in the auto component of the  retail sales aggregate since January. Gasoline prices dropped  significantly again in May, contributing to the overall index\u2019s fall. On  the other hand, positive indications should come from the apparel  sector, after two months on the decline. Weekly sales gave mixed  indications. Data on Q2 support forecasts for a slowdown in consumption  to rates just in excess of 2% q\/q ann., as opposed to a particularly  upbeat Q1 (+2.7% q\/q ann.).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 14 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  second reading of May consumer prices should confirm the preliminary  estimate at 2.4% y\/y (from 2.6% y\/y the previous month). The rate is  consistent with a one-tenth drop in prices in the month. The core CPI  could be slightly lower at 1.5% y\/y. The recent decreases in commodity  prices have significantly eased inflation risks. The CPI could stay  broadly unchanged in the months ahead, then drop considerably only  towards the end of 2012 or, more probably, in early 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In May,  the CPI should be down by -0.2% m\/m, marking the first negative monthly  change since May 2010; the core index is expected to keep up its recent  trend of +0.2% month-onmonth rises. A sharp correction in energy  prices, led by gasoline, should result in a decline of the headline  index. The year-on-year headline index downtrend, recorded since the  autumn, should continue, leading the index below 2% y\/y for the first  time since February 2011. The core index is estimated to drop to 2.2%  y\/y from 2.3% y\/y, back to last February\u2019s levels. The trend of the core  index is being affected by rising rents, and by an average monthly  increase in imputed rents, over the past year or so, of around 0.2% m\/m.  In the second half of the year we expect core inflation to ease  gradually, to below 2% y\/y.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 15 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Employment  may have contracted by at least three tenths in 1Q 2012, after dropping  by twotenths in the closing quarter of 2011. A decline is also expected  in year-on-year terms, by &#8211; 0.3% (from -0.2% y\/y in the previous  period). The most important drag is the employment trend in peripheral  euro area countries. The employment component of the PMI survey does not  bode well for a recovery of employment in the next few quarters. United  States<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The NY  Fed\u2019s Empire index should drop to 14.2 in June from 17.1 in May. The  index was positive in May, with orders, deliveries, back orders, and  employment all on the rise. The ISM\u2019s decline in May, and widespread  weakness among other manufacturing sector surveys, point to a correction  of the overall index, towards the average recorded over the past six  months. In any case, the survey should continue to indicate growth in  the sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Industrial  output is estimated to have weakened in May by -0.1% m\/m. Work hours in  the manufacturing sector decreased by -0.4% m\/m in May, and car  manufacturers denounce a decline in activity in the sector after a  string of robust monthly increases. Utilities should contribute  positively to overall output, thanks to unusually mild weather. The  production component of the ISM was down in May, after rising sharply in  April, and other surveys also point to a slowdown in manufacturing  activity, after many months of marked expansion. Utilisation of  productive capacity should decrease marginally, to 79.1% from 79.2% in  April.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer  confidence, as surveyed by the University of Michigan, should be down  in June (preliminary) to 78 from 79.3 in May (final). In May the index  rose by almost three points, to 79.3, mostly in the wake of the decline  in gasoline prices. By contrast, the Conference Board index decreased  significantly in May (to 64.9 from 68.7). The worsening of many  components including the labour market index, points to a correction for  the Univ. Of Michigan index as well, towards levels more in line with  those seen in the months prior to May.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will stay on the developments of the debt crisis, with Spain at the fore&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1041","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1041","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1041"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1041\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1041"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1041"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1041"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}