{"id":1048,"date":"2012-06-18T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-18T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/06\/18\/makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-juni-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-06-18T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-18T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-juni-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-juni-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 18 &#8211; 22 Juni 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus this week will be on events related to the debt   crisis (see Viewpoint), including possible actions by central banks&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Among  the oncoming data releases, of some interest are the June confidence  surveys (euro area flash PMI, ZEW and IFO indices in Germany, INSEE in  France, BNB index, consumer confidence in the euro area and Italy),  which are generally expected to drop further and to prove compatible  with persistently negative GDP growth in the euro area in both Q2 and Q3  2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the  United States, the focus will be more on events than on economic data.  The FOMC meeting should open the door to new monetary stimulus,  justified by an expected downward revision of growth projections for  2012-13, and by mounting downside risks. Data are not likely to change  the economic picture. In May, housing starts, building permits, and  existing home sales, should all be down compared to April. In June, the  preliminary PMI and the Philly Fed index should point to a stabilisation  of activity in the manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 18 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">NAHB  builder confidence is expected to drop in June to 28, after surging in  May (to 29, +5 points). While the trend is still stronger than in the  autumn, it has slowed compared to recent months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 19 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France.  The synthetic business confidence index for the month of June is  expected to deteriorate further, to 92 from 93 the previous month. The  confidence of enterprises should stay compressed, well below the long  term average of 100, due to renewed uncertainty and tensions tied to  worsening financial tensions. The indications provided by the trends of  orders and inventories, and by the output outlook in last month\u2019s report  both point to lingering weakness in the industrial sector over the  Summer months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  The ZEW index on the expectations of analysts and institutional  investors for the German economy is expected to drop further in June,  due to renewed tensions on the financial markets, mostly deriving from  Spain. However, the decline should be smaller than the previous month\u2019s,  placing the forward-looking component at 4.5, from 10.8. Following last  month\u2019s surprise recovery, we believe the assessment of current  conditions should also worsen somewhat, while staying comfortably in  positive territory, at 40 vs. 44.1 in May.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Housing  starts are expected to have dropped in May to 695k from 717k in April.  Employment contracted in the construction sector in May, pointing to a  slowdown in activity last month; in part, data releases are still  reflecting a gradual adjustment, following the volatility generated by a  particularly mild winter. Building permits are expected to drop to 700k  from 723k in April, confirming a gradual, but very slow uptrend.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 20 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  FOMC meeting should pave the way for new monetary stimulus.  Macroeconomic projections are expected to be revised downwards; the  press release should highlight the existence of increasing downside  risks, as the recovery seems to be losing momentum in the second half of  the year. Mr Bernanke\u2019s press conference should indicate the Fed\u2019s  readiness to react with further interventions in the event of downside  risks materialising as a result of the European crisis and\/or of fiscal  policy developments in the US.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 21 June<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  euro area composite PMI is expected to drop again (for the fifth month  in a row) in June, to 45.5 (from a definitive reading of 46 in May).  This would represent a new low since 2009. The decline should involve  both the manufacturing (expected reading of 44.5, from 45.1 previously,  in the wake of a slowdown in global trade indices) and the services  sector, where confidence is expected to drop to 46.3 from 46.7 in May.  These levels are consistent with a sharper contraction in GDP growth  than the -0.3% q\/q rate recorded in the winter months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  preliminary estimate of consumer confidence in the euro area in June  could be down marginally, to -19.5 from -19.3 previously. The slight  decline should be entirely due to relatively resilient confidence in  Germany (and, to a lesser extent, in France), as opposed to  deteriorating households\u2019 confidence in peripheral countries, again due  to worsening labour market conditions, renewed tensions on the financial  markets, and the effects of austerity measures.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  preliminary estimate of Markit\u2019s manufacturing sector PMI should be down  in June to 52.5 from 53.9, indicating a further loss of steam in the  manufacturing sector\u2019s recovery.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  Philadelphia Fed index is estimated to improve to -1 in June from -5.8  in May. The May survey was equally negative across the board, with all  components correcting, both in terms of current assessment and 6m views.  The Beige Book\u2019s indications for the Philadelphia district were  considerably less favourable than the previous month\u2019s, and point to  stagnant or only slightly stronger activity, a modest decline in orders,  and stable deliveries; expectations are also less upbeat compared to  the April Beige Book. Price indices are expected to drop further.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In May,  existing home sales are expected to be down to 4.55 million ann. from  4.62 million in April. Pending home sales contracted sharply in April,  pointing to a temporary slowdown of the modest sales uptrend in the  sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 22 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  IFO business confidence in June is expected to come in lower for the  second month in a row, to 106.2, after retracing sharply to 106.9 in  May. The decline should involve both the current situation (to 112.6  from 113.3) and the forward-looking component (to 99.9 from 100.9).  Current tensions in the euro area could continue to weigh in the coming  quarters on German productive activity, hitherto virtually immune from  the widespread economic slowdown in the euro the area. IFO indications  are compatible with a growth of close to zero for the German economy  already this quarter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  Consumer confidence could drop again in June, to 86 from a previous  level of 86.5, hitting a new all-time low for the series. Sentiment  should be most affected by employment concerns, whereas inflation fears  may ease somewhat. The labour market slack and the impact of a tighter  fiscal policy leave no room for a recovery in the sentiment of  households.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Belgium.  The BNB confidence index should keep declining in June, in line with  the past three months, levelling off at -12 from -11.2. Weakness could  continue in the manufacturing sector, as opposed a slight improvement in  the construction and retail sales sectors.<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus this week will be on events related to the debt crisis (see Viewpoint), including possible actions by central banks&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1048\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}