{"id":1056,"date":"2012-06-22T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-06-22T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/06\/22\/makrooekonomische-daten-25-29-juni-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-06-22T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-06-22T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-25-29-juni-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-25-29-juni-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 25 &#8211; 29 Juni 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the EU Commission\u2019s index for June should confirm the   risks of a slight contraction in euro area GDP in Q2 2012&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">We  see inflation down in Germany to 1.8% y\/y, stable in Spain at 1.9% y\/y,  but on the rise in Italy to 3.3% y\/y. Inflation in Europe is estimated  stable at 2.4% y\/y. The trend of the M3 aggregate should stay close to  May\u2019s levels at 2.5% y\/y, with the 3-month moving average at 2.7%.  Retail sales in Germany should be down for the second month in a row in  May. In France consumption of goods should have stagnated in June.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy  calendar of events this week in the United States. Data should indicate a  stabilisation of the recovery on slower levels than in 1Q 2012. In May,  orders and deliveries of capital goods should offset the April  corrections; new home sales are expected to stay broadly unchanged;  personal spending should drop in nominal terms, as opposed to a very  small rise in personal income. In June, consumer confidence and the  Chicago PMI index are estimated to stabilise, after dropping in May.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 25 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New  home sales are estimated to be up marginally in May to 350k from 343k in  April. Housing starts have not expressed a clear trend in recent weeks,  following the bout of volatility tied to favourable weather conditions  in Q1 2012, although the builder confidence index rose sharply in May.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 26 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer  confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board, should stabilise in  June at 65, from 64.9 in May, after three consecutive slumps. The  Bloomberg Comfort weekly confidence index has scored a modest recovery  in recent weeks; the sharp correction of the University of Michigan  confidence index in June followed a surprising rise in May. All  confidence indices have been on a downtrend since March, accompanied by a  slowdown in household spending, despite the correction of gasoline  prices: this is mostly due to weak labour income and fiscaluncertainty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 27 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  Consumer prices should be stable in June on a monthly basis. Data on  petrol and combustible gases point to a negative contribution of the  energy component. As a result we see inflation declining by one-tenth in  terms of the national measure, to 1.8% y\/y, while staying put at 2.2%  y\/y at the harmonised level.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  Business confidence in the manufacturing sector is expected to drop  further in June (to 85.3 from 86.2 the previous month), although not as  much as in recent months. The index is now one-and-a-half standard  deviation below the long-term average, although it remains higher than  the low hit at the beginning of 2009. The drop in domestic demand (as  opposed to more resilient foreign demand) had pushed enterprises to  revise downwards their production plans in May. This trend may be  confirmed this month. Expect industrial activity to remain in negative  territory until the end of 2012-2013 due to the slowdown in global trade  (and now also to Germany\u2019s loss of steam), and to sluggish domestic  demand, held back by fiscal consolidation measures, uncertainty on the  markets, and by the effects of the earthquake that hit the North East of  the country in the spring.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Orders of durable goods in May are forecast to have slipped slightly,  by -0.1% m\/m, in light of the weak performance of the civil aviation  sector. Net of the transport item, orders should show a 0.5% m\/m  increase (from -0.9% m\/m in April). Orders and deliveries of capital  goods net of the defence sector are expected to rise back, after  correcting in April (-0.2% m\/m and &#8211; 0.5% m\/m respectively). In May, the  orders component of the ISM manufacturing index rose for the second  month in a row, even if regional surveys were less positive.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 28 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  European Council meeting starts on June 28 and ends on June 29. The  meeting is eagerly awaited to see if there is consensus necessary to  initiate a process of greater integration in the Eurozone, according to  the program should be presented by the top EU authorities (ECB, European  Commission, Eurogroup President, EU President). The contents of the  so-called roadmap are not yet known, but it should cover several areas:  banking union (the transfer of responsibility for supervision and crisis  resolution from States to one or more European organizations), fiscal  union, political union. Last Thursday, the Eurogroup meeting offered no  signs of note. The situation of context is not among the worst  imaginable, thanks to favourable outcome of the elections in Greece.  However, the refinancing costs in Spain rose in the latest auctions and  Italy will offer medium\/long term paper the same day of EU Council. The  context may deteriorate rapidly in the absence of results.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  economic sentiment drawn up by the EU Commission is expected to be down  to 90 from 90.6. We expect a widespread loss of confidence. The survey  should therefore confirm that the euro area fell back into (a slight)  recession in the spring months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spain.  Consumer prices are estimated to have dropped by 0.2% m\/m, as a result  of lower energy prices. Inflation may stay flat at 1.9%y\/y, as opposed  to a 1.8%y\/y drop in harmonised terms. Spanish inflation is expected to  stay just above 2.0% y\/y until the end of 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  Consumer prices are expected to have risen by 0.1% m\/m in May, once  again on pressures stemming from petrol and fuel prices. In terms of the  harmonised level, prices are estimated to be up by 0.2%m\/m. Inflation  should stay put at 3.3% y\/y at the national level, and at 3.7%y\/y in  harmonised terms. In the second half of this year, easing pressures from  energy components will be more than offset by the 2% VAT rate hike in  October, and inflation will stay close to its current levels as a  result.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  In June, unemployment may remain stable or rise marginally (+5k  unemployed), based on monthly survey hiring intentions. The unemployment  rate is in any case expected to prove stable, in line with May at 6.7%.  Unemployment in Germany, according to Bundesbankestimates, is close to  its natural rate. Barring an increase in immigration flows, the  participation rate is unlikely to increase significantly. In our view,  the cyclical slowdown, if contained in depth and duration, should not  reverse the virtuous trend of the German labour  market<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  final estimate of 1Q GDP should be revised upwards to 2% q\/q ann. from  1.9% q\/q ann. A stronger contribution from the foreign channel (as a  result of slower imports) should more than balance a modest downward  revision of consumption and inventories.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 29 June<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  preliminary inflation estimate should point to a stable rate in June, at  2.4% y\/y, thanks to easing pressures from the energy component.  Consumer prices are estimated to drop by 0.1% m\/m on easing energy  component pressures. Euro area inflation could rise back marginally in  the summer, closing the year at 2.2% y\/y and returning below 2% at the  beginning of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  trend of the M3 aggregate should stay close to May\u2019s levels at 2.5% y\/y,  with the 3- month moving average at 2.7%. We expect slower outflows  from overnight deposits, and a slight recovery in lending to  enterprises.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  We expect a 0.6% m\/m drop in retail sales in May, from -0.2% m\/m in  April, given the firm indications of weakness from the IFO and household  confidence indices. The consumption trend should recover in the course  of the summer, based on the encouraging trend of labour income.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France.  Retail sales in May are expected to have stayed unchanged  month-on-month and to have risen slightly on an annual basis (+0.1%),  vs. +0.6% m\/m and +0.4% y\/y in April. Auto sales should support the  overall consumption figure, and apparel sales are also expected to be on  the rise after contracting significantly in the past few months.  Consumption should in any case be down in Q2 2012, after surprising on  the upside in the opening three months of the year. The trend of retail  sales should in fact be cooled by consumer confidence, held back by the  fiscal tightening under way and the exacerbation of the sovereign debt  crisis in the euro area.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal  spending in May should come in unchanged in nominal terms, and 0.2% m\/m  stronger in real terms. Gasoline prices held back nominal spending,  while retail sales revealed weak trends also for other items in the  goods category. Services are still growing at a very modest pace indeed.  Personal income is expected to be on the rise by 0.1% m\/m, with a very  weak labour income component, offset by improvements for other  components. Households stepped up consumption in the opening months of  the year, despite weak income performance: the decline in the savings  rate, underway since June 2010 (5.8% in June 2010), and which has  accelerated sharply since the end of 2011 (3.4% in April 2012), should  be followed by a modest uptrend in the next few quarters. Consumption in  2Q 2012 is estimated to slow to 1.8% q\/q ann., and should growth at  modest rates, of close to 2% q\/q ann. in the remainder of the year. The  consumption deflator is forecast to drop by -0.2% m\/m (1.5% m\/m).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  Chicago PMI should stabilise in June at 53 from 52.7 in May. The May  index had recorded a significant drop in the production, orders, and  back orders components, with the auto sector suffering a decline in  sales and in production in the month. The Beige Book points to stable  activity in June in the Chicago district, with some concern over the  fiscal outlook, albeit against a background of on-going modest growth.  Consumer confidence measured by the Univ. of Michigan in June (final)  should stabilize at 74.5, close to the level seen with the preliminary  survey (74.1), when the index dropped by 5.2 points with respect to May.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the EU Commission\u2019s index for June should confirm the risks of a slight contraction in euro area GDP in Q2 2012&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1056","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1056"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1056\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1056"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1056"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1056"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}