{"id":1067,"date":"2012-07-08T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-08T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/08\/makrooekonomische-daten-09-13-juli-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-07-08T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-08T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-09-13-juli-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-09-13-juli-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 09 &#8211; 13 Juli 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will be on the outcome of the Eurogroup at the start of the week&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Monthly data releases will be few, and outline another drop in  industrial output in May (as well as confirming the containment of  inflation pressures). <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Economic data due in the United States  will confirm downside pressures on prices. The minutes of the FOMC  meeting should support expectations for the implementation of new  stimulus, through fresh security purchases including MBS.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 9 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Industrial output is expected to  be down in May, after rising considerably more than expected in April  (solely on the back of energy). We estimate a four-tenths decline  month-onmonth. The year-on-year change would slip back into negative  territory as a result, in our estimation to -1% from +0.9% y\/y the  previous month. Based on confidence surveys, productive activity should  stay weak in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Industrial output is forecast to  drop sharply for the second month in a row in May, by &#8211; 1.4% in our  estimate from a previous -1.9%. In the month, weak economic conditions  were made worse by the earthquake in Emilia Romagna (in our view the  impact could be in excess of 0.5%). The year-on-year change would stay  deep in the red at -10.3%, both in unadjusted terms and adjusted by  workdays. Output is expected to contract further in June, hit by the  further effects of the earthquake.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 11 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In May the trade balance should show a  deficit of 48.5 billion, from 50.1 billion in April. The main  contributions to deficit reduction should come from a drop in oil prices  and from a further weakening in port activity and Japanese data.  Exports, on the other hand, should be up slightly, after contracting in  April by -0.8% m\/m.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The minutes of the FOMC meeting of 20  June should show that the balance of opinions within the Committee has  tilted further in favour of new stimulus, although there will surely  have been dissenters. The minutes could provide some indication on the  type of purchases the FOMC may put in place in the event of a further  slowdown in growth and\/or setback in the re-absorption of labour market  slack. We believe a QE3 package could be announced by September, worth  around 400-600 billion, and including MBS purchases .<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 12 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Consumer prices are expected to  have decreased by two-tenths in June, after contracting by one-tenth in  May. The decline is guided by energy prices. Year-on-year inflation will  fall from 2.3% to 2.1% in terms of the harmonised index, and from 2% to  1.7% at the national level. The drop in commodity prices, alongside the  decision not to proceed with the planned VAT hike, have also cooled the  projected profile of French inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Industrial output in the euro area is  expected to drop again in May. However, the decline should be smaller  than in April (-0.2% from -1.1% m\/m). As a result, the year-on-year rate  will drop further into negative territory, to -3.5% from -2.4% y\/y.  This would leave output on course for a -1.1% q\/q decline in the spring  quarter (vs. -0.4% q\/q in the winter quarter).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In June, import prices are expected to  be down by -1.3% m\/m, again on the back of lower oilprices. Net of oil,  prices should correct marginally (-0.1% m\/m), as a result of the  strengthening of the dollar. Year-on-year, import prices should stay in  negative territory, at &#8211; 0.9% y\/y from -0.3% y\/y in May.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 13 July<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second reading of June consumer  price data in Italy and Spain should confirm preliminary estimates, of  +0.1% to 3.6% a\/a, and -0.1% to 1.8% respectively (based on harmonised  EU indices). This would be compatible with a stable euro area CPI at  2.4% in June. The CPI may stay broadly unchanged in the coming months,  and start to drop visibly only at the end of 2012, or more probably at  the beginning of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In June the PPI is expected to contract  for the third month in a row, by -0.3% m\/m, less than the previous  month\u2019s -1% m\/m decline. The ISM price index plunged to 37 in June from  47.5, and all surveys point to further price declines. The contribution  of the energy component will continue to prove decisive, albeit more  contained than in May; food prices are expected to stabilise after  dropping sharply in the previous month (-0.6% m\/m). The year-on-year  ch\u2019ange in the PPI should be negative again, down to 0.3% y\/y from 0.7%  y\/y. The core PPI, on the other hand, should confirm the trend expressed  in the past two months, rising by +0.2% m\/m.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">June consumer confidence (preliminary)  as surveyed by the University of Michigan should come in at 73, not far  off the final May reading (73.2). All households\u2019 confidence surveys  have recently dropped back to the same levels as at the beginning of the  year, and the weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index failed to show any  improvement at the end of June compared to the average over previous  weeks. Despite the very sharp drop in gasoline prices, several negatives  are weighing on households, including uncertainty over future fiscal  policy and weak labour market. Also, the expiration of extended  unemployment benefits, definitive for both the emergency programmes by  December 2012, means around 2.5 million people will be stripped of  income support.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will be on the outcome of the Eurogroup at the start of the week&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1067","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1067"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1067\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}