{"id":1074,"date":"2012-07-16T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-16T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/16\/viewpoint-spain-announces-a-new-austerity-budget-to-contain-deficit\/"},"modified":"2012-07-16T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-16T08:00:00","slug":"viewpoint-spain-announces-a-new-austerity-budget-to-contain-deficit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/viewpoint-spain-announces-a-new-austerity-budget-to-contain-deficit\/","title":{"rendered":"Viewpoint:  Spain announces a new austerity budget to contain deficit"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Eurogroup has taken two small steps forward, but the ESM has taken a step back, following<br \/> the appeal to the German Constitutional Court. Spain announces a new austerity budget to contain deficit..\u2026.  <!--more-->  <\/div>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  After the ECB\u2019s firm ruling out of the use of its securities purchase  programme to stabilise the markets, the European authorities would be  well advised to accelerate the procedures necessary for the functioning  of what is already available (the EFSF) and would should be, but is  still not (the ESM). At the European Council of 28-29 June, the  possibility of using European funds to intervene on government bonds  gained political consensus (and is also supported by the ECB President).  On Monday, 9 July, a tiny step forward was made with the signing of a  technical agreement between the ECB and the EFSF, that will allow the  ECB to act on behalf of the EFSF on the secondary markets, presumably  along the lines adopted in the past for the SMP. Another small step  forward was made on the front of communication, as this time around the  by-now traditional media sabotage of results for domestic policy ends by  Northern European countries did not take place.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  On closer inspection, however, progress is still insufficient. The  first problem is the incredibly limited margin of independence the  German government can count on in taking decisions at the European  level: the obligation to consult Parliament on each issue, and the  frequent appeals to the Constitutional Court lengthen the  decision-making process and introduce additional elements of uncertainty  to procedures that are already sluggish. Another setback in this sense  came this week, when the Constitutional Court declared the admissibility  of the appeal filed against the ratification, already approved by a  large parliamentary majority, of the two treaties (ESM and Fiscal  Compact). Although rejection of the treaties is unlikely, at this point  the risk is that the ESM will remain unavailable until September or  October. In this case, the resources potentially available for  interventions on the government bond market would be around 100 billion  euros smaller than previously estimated.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Even beyond this element of uncertainty, the size of the resources  remains a problem for the medium term outlook. Relying on the EFSF  alone, and subtracting the 30 billion that will be issued to Spain at  the end of July, the residual amount is 213 billion euros (part of  which, however, could be required to finance at least another tranche of  the recapitalisation of Spanish banks, scheduled for November and  estimated at 45 billion). On the one hand, this is unlikely to be enough  to finance a mechanism aiming to significantly bringing down rates on  Italian debt. On the other hand, it does seem adequate to at least  integrate for a period of time demand flows on Italian debt (all  considered, between August and December only 62 billion in BTPs and CCTs  will reach maturity, part of which will be renewed by domestic  investors). However, for the interventions to prove successful, no  counterproductive conditions should be imposed, an aspect on which there  are still no sufficient guarantees.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Support in placing government bonds could also be useful for Spain,  also challenged by serious fiscal consolidation issues that need to be  resolved. The markedly negative trend of public finances in the opening  months of 2012, and dependence on external aid for the recapitalisation  of its banks (to be formally approved at the Eurogroup of 20 July), have  forced the Rajoy government to announce an emergency austerity budget  to achieve the new 6.3% public deficit target laid out for 2012 (vs. a  previous target of 5.3%). Some measures, such as the VAT hike (three  points for the ordinary rate, to 21%, and two points for the  intermediate rate), will come into force in August; others (such as the  \u201cfourteenth month\u201d bonus payment cut for public sector employees) later  on in the year. The attempt to start a small fiscal devaluation by  cutting social welfare contributions by one per cent should also be  noted. The need to reduce financial leverage in the private sector,  while at the same advancing a fiscal consolidation process, will  represent a serious element of uncertainty clouding the trend of the  Spanish economy in the years ahead.<\/div>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Eurogroup has taken two small steps forward, but the ESM has taken a step back, following the appeal to the German Constitutional Court. 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