{"id":1075,"date":"2012-07-16T08:10:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-16T08:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/16\/makrooekonomische-daten-16-20-juli-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-07-16T08:10:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-16T08:10:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-16-20-juli-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-16-20-juli-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 16 &#8211; 20 Juli 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus this week will be on the Eurogroup of 20 July,   from which greater details could emerge on the rescue plan for Spanish   banks,&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">and  on the use of EFSF\/ESM funds to purchase securities on the market. As  regards data releases, the only important market mover will be the ZEW  index (first confidence survey referred to July), which should prove  markedly negative once again, due to lingering tensions on financial  markets tied to the sovereign debt crisis.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy  calendar of events in the United States this week. Economic data in the  July manufacturing sector survey should confirm stalling growth. June  data, on the other hand, is expected to be mixed, with industrial  output, home sales, and housing starts on the rise, as opposed to an  ongoing decline in retail sales. The June CPI should again be held back  by lower energy prices, with the core index up, in line with the  month-on-month trend of 0.2%. The Beige Book and Bernanke\u2019s testimonies  before Congress for the presentation of the Monetary Policy Report  should show further openness to the implementation of QE3 by the  September meeting.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Monday 16 July<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The second reading of June CPI should confirm the preliminary estimate  of 2.4% y\/y (stable compared to the previous month). Risks to the  forecast are skewed to the downside. The y\/y figure is consistent with a  one-tenth drop in prices m\/m. The core CPI could be up slightly, from  1.6% to 1.7% y\/y (the recent trend in CPI has been guided principally by  the decline in energy prices). The CPI could stay broadly unchanged in  the months ahead, and drop below 2% only at the turn of the year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The NY Fed\u2019s Empire index should edge back up in July to 4, from 2.3 in  June, in any case still on the decline from its 20.2 peak in March. In  July the auto sector may show a contraction due to the temporary  shutdown of facilities and seasonal adjustment effects, but present  indications are not consistent with a contraction of the manufacturing  sector at large.<br \/>Forecasts mostly point to a stabilisation of  activity, or only slightly positive growth in the summer months.  Regional surveys should therefore stay in the neighbourhood of zero,  with the ISM at around 50 points, without pushing further into negative  territory for the time being.<br \/>&#8211; Retail sales should be up in June by  0.2% m\/m, with autos making a modest positive contribution. Net of the  auto component, retail sales should be down by -0.1% m\/m, dragged down  by the negative contribution of gasoline prices, as well as by the  weakness of a number of discretional components. Auto sales were up by  2.3% m\/m in June: sales were in part accounted for by companies, but a  part should also have come from households spending.<br \/>Net of autos,  gasoline sales should be down due to a price effect, but weakness should  also be evident in other sectors (clothing, other goods), based on the  indications provided by weekly sales data. Consumption is expected to  slow in Q2 to less than 2% q\/q ann. growth.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 17 July<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Germany. The ZEW index on analyst and institutional investor  expectations for the German economy is expected to be down again in  July, and in negative territory for the third month in a row, again in  the wake of lingering tensions on the financial markets tied to the  sovereign debt crisis. Expectations may drop to -20 from -16.9 in June.  Assessment of the current situation is expected to stay in comfortably  positive territory, little changed compared to June (at 33).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The June CPI should be unchanged on a monthly basis, while the core  index should keep rising at its recent pace of +0.2% m\/m. The headline  index will continue to be cooled by gasoline prices (-7% m\/m in June).  The core index should be up by 0.2% m\/m, on the back of the uptrend in  rents, which will strengthen the shelter component. The other items  should come in weaker than in May (used autos, health care, education).  However, the indications provided by surveys carried out with  enterprises point to a significant drop in the pricing power of  producers and distributors, whereas the trend of cost of labour is  compatible with a slowdown of the core CPI in the next few quarters.<br \/>&#8211;  Industrial production is expected to have risen in June by 0.4% m\/m,  based on the indications provided by the Employment Report. Work hours  were up by 0.3% m\/m in the manufacturing sector, and car manufacturers  should mark an increase in production in June. Manufacturing output  should therefore grow at a solid pace (+0,5% m\/m). In the mining and  extraction sector, work hours increased by +0.7% m\/m, and should  therefore make a positive contribution to overall output. On the other  hand, utilities are expected to undergo a correction. Capacity  utilisation is estimated to have increased to 79.3% from 79% in May.<br \/>&#8211;  Bernanke will present the Monetary Report to the Senate Banking  Committee. The testimony should signal caution on the economic outlook  and concerns that the risks of a slowdown in growth are materialising.  The risks the Fed is most concerned about are the European crisis and US  fiscal policy. On both fronts recent news does not seem encouraging,  while monthly data are revealing a sharper than expected slowdown of the  US economy than highlighted at the June FOMC meeting. Therefore, we  expect Bernanke to soon give further indications of openness towards a  securities purchase programme that would include MBSs. We believe  measures are more likely to be introduced at the September meeting, for  at least two reasons.<br \/>In September (meeting on the 13th) the Fed will  have an extra two months\u2019 worth of data to assess, and in particular  the July and August ISM and employment report. These will be important,  as the ISM dropped marginally below 50 in June, and a second reading in  negative territory would be decisive, not only in triggering the actual  intervention (which in any case we consider likely even in the event of  the ISM coming in just above 50), but also in terms of its size and  composition. Also, for the time being the extension of Operation Twist  is in place, and will last until December, and the announcement of a new  programme is more likely to take place at a closer date to the previous  one\u2019s expiration. Lastly, more explicit indications, fuelling  expectations for interventions on MBSs, would in any case already reap  effects on the market, as has always been the case in the past.<br \/>&#8211; The  homebuilders\u2019 confidence index should be up in July to 30, from 29 in  June. Sector data are positive across the board and compatible with an  expansion in the forthcoming quarters.<br \/>Expectations for a round of  QE3, to include MBS purchases, should strengthen the recovery under way  in the residential construction segment.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 18 July<br \/>United States<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Housing starts are expected to have risen in June to 730k from 708k in  May. The trend has been gradually picking up since mid-2011. Work hours  in the construction sector in June were stable, but building permits  point to a modest acceleration in the pace of growth of activity in the  residential segment. Building permits in June should correct to 765k  from 784k in May, while keeping up the positive trend observed in the  past year.<br \/>&#8211; Bernanke will present the Monetary Report to the House  Financial Services Committee. The message should be the same as  contained in the previous day\u2019s testimony at the Senate.<br \/>&#8211; The Fed  will publish the Beige Book ahead of the FOMC\u2019s end of July meeting. The  information contained in the report should be in line with the  indications of monthly economic data, generally weak across the board.  Information collected on labour market and prices are expected to  continue to show no indication of wage increases, weak demand for  labour, and reduced pricing power of companies. The Beige Book too  should provide a go ahead to new monetary stimulus measures.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 19 July<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Italy. Industrial sales and orders could rebound in May, after dropping  in April, as was also the case with the industrial production index.  Anyway, the recovery should be only partial: sales are forecast to rise  by only two-tenths, and orders by half a percentage point (after  dropping by -0.5% and -1.9% respectively). Also, the rebound may be due  to seasonal adjustment issues tied to the Easter period, which may have  depressed the April figure. Year-on-year changes will in any case stay  in markedly negative territory. No turning point seems to be in sight  for industrial activity.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise back to -3 in July from  -16.6 in June. The June survey was extremely negative, and sent off  signals that were much more negative than the indications of monthly  data, also weak, and of other surveys. We expect negativity to moderate  not only in terms of the overall activity index, but also of the other  components of the survey: in particular, orders and deliveries should  climb back to closer to zero from doubledigit negative levels in June.  In June, 6-month indicators were still in markedly expansive territory  (activity index 19.5, orders 38.2, shipments 38), on the rise from May.  Therefore, the July survey should prove to be more balanced and  consistent with a stalling of the trend, rather than with a sharp  contraction of the sector.<br \/>&#8211; Sales of existing homes are forecast to  rise in June to 4.65 million from 4.55 million in May, based on the  positive indications of contract transactions. Sales of existing homes  are rising moderately, and the real estate agent confidence index has  accelerated significantly since the end of 2011. The stock of unsold  homes is currently at 6-7 months\u2019 worth of sales but is constantly  fuelled by new foreclosures. However, the share of sales in the  foreclosed property segment is dropping gradually (28% of the total in  May).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 20 July<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Germany. Producer prices are expected to drop for the second month in a  row in June, by -0.4% in our estimation, after declining by  three-tenths in May. The year-on-year PPI would therefore slow from 2.1%  to 1.6%, confirming that inflationary pressures in the pipeline are  easing significantly.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus this week will be on the Eurogroup of 20 July, from which greater details could emerge on the rescue plan for Spanish banks,&#8230;. &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1075"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1075\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}