{"id":1080,"date":"2012-07-20T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-20T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/20\/viewpoint-the-news-is-that-a-new-framework-agreement-has-also-been-reached\/"},"modified":"2012-07-20T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-20T14:00:00","slug":"viewpoint-the-news-is-that-a-new-framework-agreement-has-also-been-reached","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/viewpoint-the-news-is-that-a-new-framework-agreement-has-also-been-reached\/","title":{"rendered":"Viewpoint:  The news is that a new framework agreement has also been reached"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fed warming up for monetary stimulus: scorching summer on the way for   the FOMC. In Europe, the Spanish banking sector bailout has been   approved&#8230;\u2026.   <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  news is that a new framework agreement has also been reached, that would  allow swifter decisions to be made on a potential diversion of funds,  currently addressed to banks.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  In his testimonies before Congress, Bernanke confirmed that the Fed is  ready to act. While the markets were disappointed by the lack of details  provided, we believe that Bernanke\u2019s words have further increased the  likeliness of QE3. Bernanke leads the FOMC democratically and does not  contemplate announcements by the Chairman before a collegiate vote has  taken place. As regards monetary policy forecasts, what counts is that  Bernanke has signalled the existence of conditions that will probably be  considered necessary and sufficient by the majority of the Committee to  put in place new actions, more radical than those seen in the past  year. In this sense, Bernanke has sent signals that make the use of more  than a single stimulus instrument likely within the next two meetings:  QE3, communication and possibly credit easing.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  economic outlook described by Bernanke is rather bleak, and weaker than  in previous assessments.: a recovery is under way, but is slowing, and  the Fed continues to expect a \u201cfrustratingly slow\u201d labour market  adjustment. The Chairman reasserted that uncertainty is still high and  increasing, as are downside risks to the outlook. The risks which  concern the central bank most are still the same: the European crisis  and US fiscal policy. As regards the future, the Chairman stressed that  the FOMC already made it clear in its June communiqu\u00e9 that it is  \u201cprepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger  economic recovery and sustained improvement in labour market  conditions\u201d. Also, there is a return of explicit deflation fears.  Bernanke said that \u201cit\u2019s very important we see sustained improvement in  the labour market, and avoid deflation risk\u201d: this marks a turning  point, which significantly increases the chances of QE3. In the past,  deflation fears have always been among the conditions required to prompt  quantitative stimulus. Bernanke\u2019s prepared text does not provide  details of future action. However, in answering questions, Bernanke  confirmed that the Fed is examining different options to promote  stronger growth. The most effective instruments, according to Bernanke,  are the purchase of securities and communication. The \u201cnew tools\u201d  probably include credit easing programmes aimed at easing financial  conditions on specific markets, and the reduction to zero of the rate  paid on excess bank reserves. The first type of intervention seems more  likely to us. The cut of the reserve rate had already been discussed by  the FOMC and put aside out of fears of a negative fallout on the money  market.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">On  the other hand, credit easing seems to be favoured in light of  Bernanke\u2019s focus on constraints on lending to households, repeatedly  discussed with considerable concern.<br \/>Despite the lack of details  contained in the chairman\u2019s testimonies, we continue to expect a QE3  package, probably to be announced at the September meeting, worth around  400-600 billion dollars, largely addressed to MBSs. Possibly already in  August, the expected date of the first fed funds rate hike might be  postponed from late 2014 to at least mid-2015. In the meantime, the way  could be paved for a credit easing programme to be implemented by  September. Much will depend on data, although we expect job growth to  remain weak and the inflation to keep slowing, allowing the FOMC ample  margin for intervention.<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Today the Eurogroup officially approved the programme for Spain. The  Memorandum of Understanding includes a new framework agreement that may  cover in the future also other rescue programmes (purchase of securities  on the secondary or primary markets, precautionary programmes,  guarantees on government issues, etc.), as long as the present 100  billion euro ceiling is respected. While no automatic mechanism is  provided for (a formal request would in any case be necessary, as well  as the negotiation of an additional agreement on specific terms, and a  resolution issued by the Eurogroup\u2019s working team), the framework  agreement already approved by all the countries will avoid the current  lengthy process of obtaining national parliamentary approvals.<\/div>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. 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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed warming up for monetary stimulus: scorching summer on the way for the FOMC. In Europe, the Spanish banking sector bailout has been approved&#8230;\u2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1080","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-analysis"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1080","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1080"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1080\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1080"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1080"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1080"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}