{"id":1081,"date":"2012-07-20T15:10:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-20T15:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/20\/makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-juli-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-07-20T15:10:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-20T15:10:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-juli-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-juli-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 23 &#8211; 27 Juli 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, while focus will  continue to be on the developments  of the debt crisis, the calendar of  monthly economic data releases will  be busy next week,&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">and includes July confidence surveys  (euro area flash PMI, German IFO, French INSEE, BNB, consumer confidence  in the euro area and in Italy); while PMI indices may prove less  pessimistic, the main national surveys should continue to decline,  signalling that a reversal in the trend of economic activity is still  not on the horizon. The M3 aggregate will stay broadly stable in June,  highlighting a further decrease in lending to the private sector.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The calendar of economic data releases  in the United States is rather quiet this week. 2Q GDP growth should  confirm a slowdown compared to the first three months of the year, with a  weakening in the trend of household consumption. Orders of durable  goods should be little changed in June, whereas new home sales are  forecast to rise slightly.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 23 July<br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The preliminary estimate of consumer confidence in  the euro area in July could be little changed (-19.7 from -19.8 in  June). The display of resilience seems to be entirely Germany\u2019s merit,  while the widespread deterioration in labour market conditions and  renewed tensions on the financial markets, combined with the effects of  austerity budget measures, continue to weigh heavily on consumer  sentiment in peripheral countries (the only \u201crelief\u201d for households  could come from an easing of inflation risks).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 24 July<br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; France. The synthetic business confidence index is  expected to stabilise at 92 in July (well below the long-term average of  100). Tension on the markets and widespread uncertainty tied to the  sovereign debt crisis are still impacting business activity. Still no  turning point in sight for industry, based on indications from the  trends of inventories, orders and future output provided by the June  survey.<br \/>&#8211; The euro area composite PMI is expected to recover slightly  for the second month in a row in July, to 46.6 from 46.4 in June. The  two-tenths rebound could involve both the manufacturing index (to 45.3)  and services (to 47.3). However, these levels are still consistent with a  contraction in GDP growth also in the Summer quarter (following the  likely drop in the Spring months).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The preliminary estimate of the July Markit PMI should be down to 52 from 52.9 in June.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> Wednesday 25 July<br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Germany. The IFO business confidence index is  expected to drop for the third consecutive month in July, to an  estimated 104.3 from 105.3 in June. This month, assessment of the  present situation should show a sharper decline (to 111.9 from 113.9)  than the expectations component (96.9 from 97.3). The IFO index remains  on levels higher than the long-term average (just above 100), and  therefore more favourable compared to the corresponding surveys in the  other euro area countries; however, in Germany as well, the trend of  industrial activity is slowing.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. Consumer confidence could  drop again in July, to 85 from 85.3 in June, hitting a new historical  low for the series. Once again, confidence should be weighed down by  unemployment fears (already at a high since 1994 in the June survey), as  opposed to a possible further easing of inflation concerns. The  deterioration of the labour market, and the restrictive fiscal policy,  leave no room for a recovery in the sentiment of households.<br \/>&#8211;  Belgium. The BNB confidence index is expected to drop for the fifth  month in a row in July, to -14 in our estimation, from -13.2 in June.  The manufacturing sector should stay weak, as opposed to a marginal  potential improvement in construction and retail sales.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Sales of  existing homes in June are expected to increase to 375k from 369k in  May. The indications provided by the builder confidence index are  positive again in June, with the NAHB index on the rise to 30 from 29.  The residential construction sector should continue to contribute  positively to overall growth in 2012 and 2013, albeit still modestly.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 26 July<br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/> The year-on-year trend of the M3 aggregate is expected  to be stable in June, at 2.9% (with the moving average also stable at  2.8%). The May recovery was mostly driven by the inversion of temporary  operations carried out in April between credit institutions and  non-monetary financial intermediaries, with an impact principally on  overnight deposits. As regards the counterparts of the M3 aggregate, we  expect lending to the private sector to keep showing a negative growth  rate, hit (as also acknowledged by the ECB in its latest monthly  bulletin) not only by slowing demand, but also by supply constraints.<br \/>&#8211;  Italy. Contract-based wages are expected to rebound by one tenth in  June, to 1.5% y\/y. The figure is compatible with a two-tenth growth of  wages on a monthly basis, mostly on the back of the planned increases  provided for by the banking sector national collective labour contract.  In any case, barring renewals, the trend of wages should stay broadly  unchanged (and well below inflation) for the rest of the year as well.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Orders of durable goods in June are expected to  increase by 0.2% m\/m; net of the transport component, orders should be  down by 0.5% m\/m. Orders indicators are weak in all manufacturing sector  surveys, and the trend of actual orders is broadly flat.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 27 July<br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Italy. The index of business confidence among  manufacturing companies should be down again in July, after unexpectedly  rebounding last month (our estimate: 87.5 from 88.9 in June). The index  is by now one standard deviation and a half below the long-term  average, although it is still well above low hit early in 2009 (70.6).  The June survey had shown easing pessimism on orders and production  plans, despite a worsening of expectations referred to the overall  economic situation. Uncertainty and credit restrictions caused by the  protracted debt crisis will continue to affect business confidence for  an extended period.<br \/>&#8211; Germany. Consumer prices are expected to  rebound by four tenths in July, after declining in the previous two  months. The rise would be in line with the month\u2019s seasonality, as data  on fuel indicate that the energy component\u2019s contribution was close to  zero. Inflation is seen stable, both at the national level (1.7% y\/y)  and in harmonised terms (2% y\/y).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> <\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The  University of Michigan consumer confidence index for July (final) should  be up just marginally to 72.5 from 72 of the preliminary survey. The  persistent labor market weakness and growing uncertainty over 2013  fiscal policy leave no room for significant increases in household  confidence in coming months.<br \/>&#8211; In 2Q 2012, GDP growth should slow to  1.7% q\/q ann. from 1.9% q\/q ann. in 1Q. The consumption trend should be  the main culprit behind the slowdown in growth, up by only 1.7% q\/q ann.  from +2.5% q\/q ann.; retail sales were almost stagnant, although we  expect the services component to confirm the acceleration observed in  April and May. Inventories should make a modest positive contribution,  offsetting the drag represented by the foreign channel in 2Q.<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, while focus will continue to be on the developments of the debt crisis, the calendar of monthly economic data releases will be busy next week,&#8230;&#8230; &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}