{"id":1087,"date":"2012-07-27T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-27T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/27\/viewpoint-our-forecast-is-that-a-purchase-programme-will-be-announced-in-september\/"},"modified":"2012-07-27T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-27T14:00:00","slug":"viewpoint-our-forecast-is-that-a-purchase-programme-will-be-announced-in-september","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/viewpoint-our-forecast-is-that-a-purchase-programme-will-be-announced-in-september\/","title":{"rendered":"Viewpoint:  Our forecast is that a purchase programme will be announced in September"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">QE3 likely to be announced by mid-September. In a week that is dense   with central bank meetings (ECB, BoE and Fed), the Fed should act by   tweaking communication,&#8230;\u2026.<\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>while providing tangible signals of the activation of more substantial measures by the September meeting. <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  At the meeting of 31 July-1st August, the FOMC should continue to move  gradually, offering another taste of monetary stimulus via a change in  communication and groundwork ahead of QE3, which will probably be  implemented in September. Mounting tensions on the European markets, and  persistently poor US economic data, support forecasts for the opening  of a securities purchase programme soon. While Chairman Bernanke\u2019s  testimonies did not go into detail, they clearly signalled the Fed\u2019s  intention to intervene in the presence of two conditions:<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">the  domestic labour market\u2019s failure to reabsorb slack, and a heightening  of risks at the international level. Both these conditions are  materialising. The likely action revolves around three tools: 1)  communication; 2) QE3 with MBS purchases; 3) credit easing programs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Our forecast is that a purchase programme will be announced in  September: the \u201copen\u201d format&nbsp; suggested by Williams (see below) could be  a concrete option, if accompanied by transparent conditions on the  objectives guiding the Fed\u2019s decisions. In August, the expected date of  the initial Fed Fund rate hike should be pushed back, to at least 2015  (from \u201clate 2014\u201d at present), and indication of more concrete action  with QE3 coming soon should be clear.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">There  is considerably more uncertainty over the third type of instrument,  i.e. a credit easing programme, aimed at impacting credit conditions in  lending to the private sector. On this front, during his testimony  Bernanke mentioned the possibility of using the Fed\u2019s discount window to  supply funds to banks which step up lending to households and  companies, along the lines of the programme just activated by the Bank  of England. To a programme of this kind, the Fed could add a reduction  of the current discount rate from its present level (0.75%). We believe  the rate on deposits is unlikely to be cut to zero, given the sceptical  or negative views expressed in the past by the FOMC on such a measure.  One factor which in favour of credit easing already in August could be  that the Fed\u2019s balance sheet would not be expanded definitively, leaving  a decision on QE3 until September, when more monthly data will be  available and the end of Operation Twist will be in sight.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Following Bernanke\u2019s testimonies before Congress, explicit indications  of decisive action have emerged. Among the many voices, the words of S.  Bloom Raskin (Board) were especially indicative: Raskin rarely makes  public statements, she does not side with either end of the opinion  range, contrary for instance to Yellen, and probably represents the  stance of the FOMC centre. Raskin said that at the next FOMC meeting a  new securities purchase programme will probably be discussed. Recently  Rosengren, Pianalto, Lockhart, Evans have spoken out in favour of bond  purchases. Williams (San Francisco) stated that the only cons are the  uncertain effects of the measures and the cost\/benefit ratios of further  actions. His view is that MBS purchases would me more effective and  have smaller side effects on the functioning of the market, as opposed  to Treasuries purchase programmes. According to Williams, it may be best  to announce an \u201copen\u201d programme, with no preset expiration and\/or  amounts, to be implemented flexibly depending on the development of the  economic situation.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<p> &#8211;  As for QE3, it is around the corner, in our view, and the Fed is  weighing the pros and cons of various options. Which securities could be  purchased without creating distortions on the market? The margin for  purchases at the long end of the Treasury curve is now very limited.<br \/>The  Fed has already purchased around 31% of outstanding securities with  2021 maturity and the share will increase further as Operation Twist  proceeds. The extension announced in June provides for 32% of purchases  on the 8-10Y segment, corresponding to around 85 billion dollars. Given  the risks of a progressive drop in the market\u2019s liquidity, combined with  the aim of achieving a more direct easing of credit terms on lending to  households, the next purchase programme may be concentrated on MBS. In  August the FOMC could signal that a new programme is being drawn up, to  be announced soon if conditions justify its adoption. <\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>QE3 likely to be announced by mid-September. In a week that is dense with central bank meetings (ECB, BoE and Fed), the Fed should act by tweaking communication,&#8230;\u2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3455,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[50],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-analysis"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1087\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3455"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}