{"id":1089,"date":"2012-07-27T15:10:00","date_gmt":"2012-07-27T15:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/07\/27\/makrooekonomische-daten-30-03-august-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-07-27T15:10:00","modified_gmt":"2012-07-27T15:10:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-30-03-august-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-30-03-august-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 30 &#8211; 03 August 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, market focus will be on the ECB. Spain will open the round of Q2 national accounts data releases:&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">GDP  is expected to have contracted by at least -0.4% q\/q. The European  Commission\u2019s economic sentiment index will drop further, dragged down by  manufacturing.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inflation  should change little in July. Unemployment could remain stable in  Germany, increasing further in the euro area as a whole and in  peripheral countries. The weak trend of retail sales is not expected to  change.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy  calendar of events in the United States next week. Economic data should  outline a stabilisation of the recovery at a very modest pace,  compatible with a hiatus in the slowdown seen in 2Q. The manufacturing  sector ISM should edge back up above 50 in July, whereas the  non-manufacturing index should keep up the downtrend observed in recent  months. The July employment report should confirm job growth at just  under 100k, with a stable unemployment rate at 8.2%. Construction  spending, personal spending and personal income should all show a modest  rise in June, in both nominal and real terms. The FOMC meeting could  bring an initial taste of new monetary stimulus, with the postponement  of the expected date of the first Fed Fund rate hike, leaving the bulk  of the intervention until September, when an extra two months\u2019 worth of  data will be available.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 30 July<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/><strong>&#8211; Spain<\/strong>.  GDP may have contracted by at least -0.4% q\/q in Q2 2012, deteriorating  from -0.3% q\/q in the opening three months of the year. The  year-on-year rate would therefore level off at -1% (from -0.4% the  previous month). Both the monthly and annual rates should hit their  lowest levels in more than two years. Fiscal tightening is constraining  domestic demand, whereas the foreign channel could make a positive  contribution to growth. Recession could continue at least until the end  of the year, and could in fact increase in the closing quarters in the  wake of the new austerity measures put in place by the Rajoy government.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  The EU Commission\u2019s economic sentiment index is expected to be down for  the fourth consecutive month in July, to 89 in our estimation from 89.9  the previous month. Confidence may have deteriorated most among  manufacturing companies (-14 from -12.7), as opposed to broadly  unchanged sentiment among services companies (-7.5 from -7.4), and  consumer confidence is expected to confirm the preliminary reading, down  to -21.6 from -19.8. The retail and construction indices will also stay  in negative territory.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 31 July<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/><strong>&#8211; France<\/strong>.  Retail sales are estimated to have increased for the third consecutive  month in June, by 0.3% (down from the average of the two previous  months, following a volatile phase between February and March). In the  month, auto sales accelerated compared to the previous month; also,  clothing and apparel sales are expected to ease back after soaring in  May. The figure roughly outlines a stagnation of consumption in the  spring quarter, in line with the two previous quarters.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>&#8211; Germany<\/strong>.  The unemployment rate may have stayed at 6.8% (a historical low since  the series began in 1992) in July. The jobless figure is expected to  rise for the fourth month in a row, by around 10k based on our  estimates, from 7k in June. In Germany as well, the slowdown of the  economic cycle is starting to have effects, albeit marginal, on the  labour market.<br \/>&#8211; Inflation in the euro area is forecast stable at  2.4% y\/y in July. The figure would be compatible with a five-tenths drop  in prices, in the wake of the usual discounts applied during  end-of-season sales, while the energy component, after declining sharply  for two months, seems to have made a broadly neutral contribution to  the monthly trend in July. We expect inflation to stay close to its  current level until the end of the summer, and to subsequently drop to  around 2% by the end of the year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  The unemployment rate in the euro area could rise further in June, by  one-tenth in our estimation, to 11.2%. The jobless rate may have stopped  declining in Germany and kept increasing in peripheral countries. It is  still too soon to expect an interruption of the labour market downtrend  in the euro area.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>&#8211; Italy<\/strong>.  Consumer prices are estimated to have risen by three-tenths in July  (from 0.2% m\/m previous). Inflation would stay stable in terms of both  the NIC (at 3.3% y\/y) and the harmonised index (at 3.6% y\/y). In the  month, food prices are expected to drop, as opposed to increase in the  hotel &amp; restaurant and culture &amp; leisure segments. Unlike the  previous two months, the energy component is expected to have made a  neutral contribution to the monthly price trend.<br \/><strong>&#8211; Italy<\/strong>. Based on provisional monthly data, unemployment could rise back to 10.2% in June after<br \/>dropping  unexpectedly in May. Surveys show that companies are finding it  increasingly hard to preserve employment levels. Based on our estimates,  the jobless rate could peak at above 11.5% in mid-2013.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Personal spending is estimated to have increased by 0.2% m\/m in June.  Retail sales were very weak in June, down by -0.1% m\/m for the control  group, which includes the items that make up the consumption definition.  However, in recent months spending has shifted to the advantage of  services, after many months in which durable goods were the main  drivers.<br \/>Therefore, despite the weakness of sales (including auto  sales), we believe consumption may have grown at a reasonable pace on  the whole growth both in real and nominal terms, especially when  compared to the weakness recorded in the first two months of 2Q.  Personal income in June could accelerate significantly compared to the  weak May reading. Based on the increase in work hours and wages, as  surveyed by the June Employment Report, we expect personal income to  grow by 0.3% m\/m; the change will be the result of an acceleration in  the wages and salaries component, offset however by the ongoing drop in  income from unemployment benefits, which is continuing at an  increasingly sharp pace, due to the almost total unwinding of the  extension programmes financed by federal emergency funds. The savings  rate should be up, to 4% from 3.9% in May, back to levels in line with  January 2012, confirming the upturn started again in March.<br \/>&#8211; The  Chicago PMI should stabilise in July at levels just above those seen in  May-June (52.8 on average), climbing to 53.2. Indications form the auto  sector remain positive, although the strong growth seen in the opening  part of the year will not be matched in the remainder of 2012. The  survey could outline a modest correction of the output component, due to  temporary plant shutdowns, while highlighting a recovery in orders from  48.5 in June.<br \/>&#8211; The consumer confidence index released by the  Conference Board should be steady at 62 in July. There are no good news  able to lift household spirits and the survey should show persisting low  levels for both the coincident and expectations components.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 1 August<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The second reading of the July manufacturing PMI should confirm the  flash estimate, which saw the index drop by one point to 44.1 from 45.1  in June. It remains to be seen whether the sharp drops of both the  German index (to 43.3 from 45) and the French (to 43.6 from 45.2) are  confirmed. We expect a decline to 44.4 from 44.6 in Italy.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The manufacturing sector ISM in July is forecast to rise to 50.5 from  49.7 in June. July regional surveys were less negative than in June, and  point to a modest recovery, for the national index as well. The picture  of the economy is not compatible with a contraction of the  manufacturing sector, although activity is close to being almost  stagnant, slowed by pressures tied to fiscal uncertainty and to  weakening global demand. The auto sector would represent a drag on data  in July, but not to the point of pushing the outlook index far below 50.<br \/>&#8211;  Construction spending is expected to have increased by 0.4% m\/m in  June. The increase in spending should be fuelled once again by private  construction, also supported by the recent stabilisation of home prices.  The change expected in June should be more contained than in May (+0.9%  m\/m), and again larger in the residential segment than in the  non-residential. In the public construction sector, the correction under  way since the beginning of the year is expected to continue.<br \/>&#8211; The  FOMC meeting on 31 July-1st August is expected to introduce new  stimulus. Considering that at this meeting the Fed will not have much  more hard data available to it than in June, the FOMC may postpone the  bulk of its intervention through QE3 until mid-September, when the  revised macroeconomic projections will be published, and an extra two  months\u2019 worth of data will be available on the labour market and the  real economy. In August the Committee could start adding stimulus  through communication, pushing back the expected date of the first fed  funds rate hike: up to June, the indicated date was \u201cat least late  2014\u201d, and could now be postponed to mid\/late 2015. The other options  open to the Fed (in addition to communication and QE) are the rate on  excess reserve and credit easing programmes. The FOMC could provide  indications of openness to actively support lending to households,  through liquidity programmes and, subsequently, MBS purchases. For the  time being, we set the probability of QE3 at 80%, with a 60% probability  of an announcement being made un September, as opposed to 40% in  August. As regards communication, the probability of an announcement in  August is 80% in our view; the overall probability of a credit easing  programme is in line with that assigned to QE3, but the chances of an  announcement in August are higher (60%).<br \/>&#8211; Motor vehicle sales in  July are estimated stable at 14 million ann., on a par with the June  figure. Data should confirm that the trend of auto sales is stabilising,  in line with the expectations of car manufacturer for 2012, which  average around 14.3 million.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/>Thursday 2 August<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The August meeting should have been an interlocutory one for the ECB\u2019s  Governing Council, in waiting to assess the effects of the rate cuts  decided in July, but market conditions risk prompting a change in plan  from the Frankfurt institution. At this point, anything is possible.<br \/>The  latest statements seem to signal the arrival of further  non-conventional measures, rather than a new interest rate cut (which  cannot be ruled out, but could be postponed in waiting to assess the  effects of the July decision, on deposits especially). The ECB could be  \u201cforced\u201d to reactivate the SMP in the course of the month or in  September should the dangerous escalation under way on the markets  continue. More openings on Draghi\u2019s part on the ECB\u2019s willingness to use  all the tools at its disposal to preserve the euro are likely (and  welcome); Draghi could also hint at discussion at the European level on  the possibility of giving the ESM a banking licence.<br \/>&#8211; Producer  prices are expected to have dropped by -0.4% m\/m in June, after  contracting by half a point in May. The year-on-year PPI would therefore  slow to 1.9% from 2.3%. Survey data point to a significant easing of  pressures upstream of the production chain.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 3 August<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The second reading of the July services and composite PMI should  confirm the preliminary estimates of 46.4 for the composite, and 47.6  for services. The PMI level is compatible with negative GDP growth  between the spring and the summer.<br \/>&#8211; Retail sales could slow to 0.3%  m\/m in June after a 0.6% m\/m rise in May. This would not prevent a  negative rate in the Q2 2012, of -0.9% q\/q based on our estimates, after  a broadly stable trend in the first three months of the year. The trend  of consumer confidence is still failing to raise hopes of a recovery in  retail sales.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/><\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The July employment report is not expected to bring particular changes  to the trend observed in recent months. New non-farm payrolls should  come in at 90k, only marginally higher than in June (80k) and higher  than the average for the past months (75k). Labour market indicators are  not pointing to radical changes in the slack-absorption path: the drop  in new jobless claims recorded early in July is probably temporary, and  tied to the volatility of auto plant shut-down dates; the employment  component of sector surveys remains in expansive territory, but is  showing no sign of an acceleration. The unemployment rate is estimated  at 8.2%, in line with the two previous months, and the participation  rate should stabilise at May-June levels (63.8%). Hourly wages should  increase by 0.1% m\/m, confirming the very weak trend of labour income.<br \/>&#8211;  The non-manufacturing sector ISM is forecast to drop to 51.5 in July  from 52.1 in June. The composite index has been declining virtually  uninterruptedly since peaking at 57.3 in February, and is now on levels  last seen in the autumn of 2010. The survey should be affected by weak  retail sales, which had increased in June. In June, 12 subsectors out of  19 marked showed an expansion, and five contracted. We stick to our  forecast of a modest increase in activity, compatible with an overall  growth of the economy of around 2%, marking a slight reacceleration  compared to a generally disappointing second quarter of the year.<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, market focus will be on the ECB. 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