{"id":1094,"date":"2012-09-03T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-09-03T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/09\/03\/forex-marketsthis-year-the-month-of-august-spared-the-markets-unpleasant-surprises\/"},"modified":"2012-09-03T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-03T06:00:00","slug":"forex-marketsthis-year-the-month-of-august-spared-the-markets-unpleasant-surprises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/forex-marketsthis-year-the-month-of-august-spared-the-markets-unpleasant-surprises\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex markets:This year the month of August spared the markets unpleasant surprises"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This year the month of August spared the currency markets unpleasant surprises, but crunch time will come in September&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <br \/><\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"> Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><\/span> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/span>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>For professional investors and advisers only<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span>  <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">If next week the ECB disappoints the  expectations which in August allowed the euro to recover the losses  incurred in July, the exchange rate will risk backtracking towards  EUR\/USD 1.20. Developments in the euro area may also significantly  impact sterling and the yen.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">This  year the month of August spared the markets unpleasant surprises, and  the situation actually quietened down somewhat on the forex markets in  particular. However, August movements should not be considered as  indicative, as the market is in any case thin and caution in reading  developments is therefore a must. September, on the other hand, will be  the month of truth. Next week the euro area crisis will be in the  limelight: the main event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday 6  September, but any day will be good to provide input \u2013 via statements or  rumours \u2013 on the progress being made in terms of the anti-crisis  measures\/plans in Greece, Spain, and at the supranational level.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>EUR<\/strong> \u2013 In August the euro recovered the serious losses incurred in July,  when the exchange rate plunged from EUR\/USD 1.26 to 1.20 \u2013 a low  abandoned two years ago (in June 2010, during the first Greek crisis).  The euro gradually rose back in August to 1.26. Rather than by positive  developments, the recovery was fuelled by statements made by the ECB  and\/or national governments, which let on that the authorities were  working non-stop to (1) prepare effective anti-crisis initiatives to be  launched in September, while (2) resisting the lurking temptation to  allow the dissolution of the euro area. This led to expectations for the  September agenda which helped maintain a moderately optimistic  sentiment in a short-euro market, allowing the single currency to rise  back. However, it should again be stressed that the recovery moved from  lows abandoned two years ago, i.e. from 1.20: therefore, the movement  cannot be described as a rally. Also, expectations emerged as being the  main driver, which means that the exchange rate would be exposed to a  swift correction (at least towards 1.20-1.18) should they be  disappointed. On the other hand, if tangible anti-crisis actions crisis  do start to come through, possibly already as of next week, the euro  should be able to consolidate its August recovery. From a technical  standpoint, the upside front will only open once the 1.2531-1.2564  corridor is fully broken through.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>GBP<\/strong> \u2013 Sterling also strengthened against the dollar (from GBP\/USD 1.55 to  1.59), but less so than the euro, against which it backtracked slightly  as a result (from EUR\/GBP 0.78 to 0.79).<br \/>While contained, sterling\u2019s  movement is less \u201cgenuine\u201d than the euros, as the fundamental picture of  the UK economy has not improved in August. Therefore \u2013 next week and\/or  in the following weeks \u2013 the pound will be exposed to a higher risk of  correcting. As regards next week, we do not expect changes to be  announced on occasion of the Bank of England meeting (Thursday), neither  on rates nor on the APF, which, however, could be reviewed in October  or November. Therefore, sterling should be conditioned both by the  euro\u2019s movements and by domestic economic data (August PMIs due out on  Monday and Wednesday, July output on Friday). Consensus expectations  point to generally improving data. However, any disappointment would  result in the pound easing back both against the dollar and the euro.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>JPY<\/strong> \u2013 Nothing much changed for the yen in August: against the dollar it  stayed within the same range as in July, between 78 and 80 USD\/JPY.  Moderately positive market sentiment on the euro area was not enough to  shake the Japanese currency out of its lethargy, as it was more than  balanced by uncertainties\/concerns tied to the downside risks weighing  on the global economy.<br \/>Any positive developments on the front of the  European debt crisis could be enough, alone, to at least trigger a  weakening of the yen.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">Appendix<br \/>An<\/span>alyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The  financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles  appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on  companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and  balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been  or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific  disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive  bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon  specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This  research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the  London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the  NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for  the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.  Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo  Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both  authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial  Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in  the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and  estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are  subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and  opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no  representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a  transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca  IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading  Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning  and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into  account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have  already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also  based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms  of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may  refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise  target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves  or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may  be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time  horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging  from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event  that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we  advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa  Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation  methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on  IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales  representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This year the month of August spared the currency markets unpleasant surprises, but crunch time will come in September&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1094"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1094\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3463"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}