{"id":1111,"date":"2012-09-14T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-09-14T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/09\/14\/makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-september-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-09-14T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-14T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-september-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-september-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 17 &#8211; 21 September 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the first confidence surveys referred to September   will be published this week: PMI flash estimates and euro area consumer   confidence, German ZEW and Belgian BNB&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">All the indices should point to easing  pessimism, going forward especially, in the wake of easing tensions on  the financial markets on the ECB\u2019s announcements. However, confidence  indices remain depressed, and the road to overcoming the crisis still  seems to be a long one. Economic data due for release this week in the  United States should not change the assessment of the cyclical outlook.  Regional surveys should remain weak in September. On the other hand,  August real estate sector data should confirm the uptrend, with housing  starts and sales of existing homes both on the rise.<\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 17 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The NY Fed\u2019s Empire Index should be up in September, to -1 from -5.9  in August. The survey sub-indices were not significantly worse in August  than in July, when the overall index levelled off at 7.4. Orders and  deliveries should stay in negative territory, whereas the prices paid  index should stabilise on high levels in line with August. Survey  indications should be consistent with persistently weak growth in 4Q.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 18 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The ZEW confidence index, based  on the expectations of analysts and institutional investors for the  German economy, should reveal easing pessimism in September, in the wake  of slackening tensions on the financial markets following the ECB\u2019s  announcements. The expectations component, after worsening sharply to  -25,5 in August, could climb back to -18; assessments of the present  situation should also improve, albeit not so strongly, to 18.5 from 18.2  previously.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 19 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Housing starts are estimated to rise in  August to 750k from 746k in July, in the wake of a significant increase  in the single-family segment, as opposed to a contraction in the  multifamily segment, as is physiological in the wake of markedly  positive previous data. On the other hand, permits should correct to  790k, from a very high level in July (811k), converging back towards  housing starts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sales of existing homes in August are  expected to increase to 4.58 million from 4.47 million in July, based on  the positive indications on June pending sales. Home sales are on an  uptrend, higher by around 18% compared to the lows hit in 2008; however,  their current level is still 38% lower than the 2005 peak, and 16%  lower than the long-term average. Normalisation of the sector will take  years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 20 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The flash estimate of the euro area  composite PMI index for September is expected to improve to 46.8 from  46.3 in August. Recoveries should be scored by both the manufacturing  index (t 45.6 from 45.1) and the services PMI (to 47.7 from 47.2). While  the indices are still in markedly recessive territory, easing tensions  on the financial markets could, if nothing else, lead to a stabilisation  of confidence indices and, consequently, of activity levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The preliminary estimate of the consumer  confidence index for September may rebound to &#8211; 23, after plunging in  August to -24.6 (a low since 2009). Prospects of a more effective  management of the sovereign debt crisis may have improved, albeit only  modestly, consumers\u2019 perception of the economic situation. The indicator  would in any case stay at historically low levels, pointing to  persistently weak demand for consumption for at least a few quarters to  come.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Philadelphia Fed index is expected  to improve in September, to -2 from -7.1 in August, marking its third  consecutive rise, after crashing in June to -16.6. The August survey was  little changed in terms of single components, although the composite  index improved significantly. Orders and deliveries should stay  marginally negative. The six-month outlook in July had fallen to 12.5  from 19.3 in June, with a drop in capital expenditures and deliveries,  indicating that concerns tied to the \u201cfiscal cliff\u201d are probably holding  back the spending decisions of businesses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 21 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Belgium. The BNB index is forecast to  rebound to -10.5 in September, from -11.8 in August, thanks to increased  optimism on management of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area.  The index is considered as a leading indicator of the trend of the  German IFO, and more in general of manufacturing activity in Germany,  and thus in the euro area as a whole<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the first confidence surveys referred to September will be published this week: PMI flash estimates and euro area consumer confidence, German ZEW and Belgian BNB&#8230;. &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}