{"id":1119,"date":"2012-09-24T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-09-24T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/09\/24\/makrooekonomische-daten-24-28-september-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-09-24T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-24T08:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-24-28-september-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-24-28-september-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 24 &#8211; 28 September 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy week in the euro area in terms of economic data releases, with the   IFO, INSEE, ISAE and European Commission confidence surveys at the  fore.  The surveys should all confirm a slight improvement in  expectations, as  opposed to deteriorating views on present  conditions&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  September, inflation is forecast to rise by four-tenths in Spain, on the  back of the VAT rate hike, to drop by one-tenth in Italy, to 3.1% y\/y,  and by three-tenths in Germany, to 1.9% y\/y. Inflation in the euro area  is estimated at 2.4% y\/y from a previous rate of 2.6% y\/y. Economic data  due for release in the United States this week are not expected to  alter the overall picture of weak growth, despite the recovery of the  real estate sector. In September consumer confidence is expected to  return to June levels, and the Chicago PMI should move further down. In  August, new home sales should show another solid rise, as opposed to a  drop in durable goods orders. The final estimate of 2Q 2012 GDP should  bring another downward revision, confirming the weakness of growth in  the central months of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 24 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  The IFO business confidence index is expected to improve moderately in  September. The index could rise back to 103.0 from 102.3 in August, its  lowest level since the beginning of 2010, supported by easing tension on  financial markets. The recovery in confidence should mostly be due to  the expectations component, which could rebound to 95.1, whereas the  present situation component could be more affected by the effects of the  current economic slowdown, staying stable in the 111 area (111.2 in  August).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 25 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France.  The September INSEE business confidence index may drop to 87 from 90 in  August. Despite easing tensions on the financial markets, factors of  uncertainty linger, and will continue to weigh on the confidence of  French enterprises, as proven by the sharp drop of the other sentiment  index for the month (PMI manufacturing down to 42 from 46 in August).  Persistently low confidence is at these levels is compatible with a  stagnation of production activity and economic growth in the next few  months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  In September, consumer confidence is expected to rebound moderately to  86.5, from 86 in August. Improved performances on the financial markets  may have somewhat uplifted sentiment among households, although serious  uncertainties, lingering on the labour market front, do not allow for a  stronger recovery of the indicator. The current situation component  could come in just higher than in August (at 94.3 from 94), while the  overall expectations index is estimated to recover slightly, to 77 from  76.7. The level of consumer confidence is compatible with an ongoing  contraction of consumption in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer  confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board, should be up in  September to 65 from 60.6. The preliminary September University of  Michigan index improved significantly, after declining sharply over the  summer months, and climbed back to the same levels as in June. The  Conference Board should also price in brightening confidence in the wake  of the upswing of market indices. Confidence will stay compressed in  any case, in light of the weak trend of employment and uncertainty tied  to the impending fiscal cliff.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 26 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  September inflation should level off at 2%, from 2.1% in August;  harmonised inflation, on the other hand, should come in at 1.9%. Both  indices may be down by 0.1% on a monthly basis, thanks to easing  pressures from the energy component. We expect German inflation to reach  1.2% y\/y at the beginning of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New  home sales are expected to be up in August, to 385k from 371k in  September. The builders\u2019 confidence survey showed sharp increases in the  current sales component in the summer months, and is pointing to an  acceleration the sales trend, confirmed by data on housing starts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 27 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany.  The unemployment rate is expected to stay put in September at 6.9%,  although the number of jobless workers may be up by 10k. Unemployment  dropped to a historical low in August 2012, which should be confirmed in  September, although the slowdown of the cycle is also affecting Germany  and may start weighing on the employment trend as of the autumn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">M3  growth should keep accelerating in August (+3.9% y\/y vs. a previous rate  of 3.8% y\/y), on the back of the steepening of the curve compared to  July. The moving average could therefore rise to 3.5% y\/y.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  Business confidence may turn back down in September, albeit only  marginally, and could slide to 86.6 from 87.2 in August. The index  climbed back from the historical lows touched in May, but remains at  extremely compressed levels, compatible with an ongoing contraction in  productive activity and GDP growth in the quarters ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  European Commission economic sentiment index is expected to drop  marginally in September, to 85.8 from 86.1. The flash PMI estimate  pointed to improved sentiment in manufacturing, as opposed to a  deterioration in the services sector, in France in particular.  Confidence in the retail and construction sectors should be unchanged,  and consumer confidence should be confirmed at -25.9, as anticipated by  the preliminary reading. Confidence in the euro area remains on very  depressed levels, compatible with our estimate for a 0.3% q\/q  contraction in GDP over the summer, and near-stagnation in the closing  months of year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  final estimate of 2Q GDP should bring a downward revision to 1.5% q\/q  ann. from 1.7% q\/q ann. The revision should be tied to consumption,  non-residential investments (especially structures), and exports.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Orders  of durable goods in August are expected to have dropped by -5.5% m\/m,  driven down by the civil aviation component. Net of transport, orders  are forecast to rise very modestly (+0.5% m\/m). In August (and in the  following months), orders in the defence sector should shoe a modest  recovery, after contracting significantly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 28 September<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France.  Consumption spending in July e August is expected to be down by 0.2%  m\/m and 0.1% m\/m respectively, after rising by +0.1% m\/m in June. If  confirmed, the summer decline would leave the annual trend in negative  territory (+0.2% in July and -0.4% in August), and the quarterly rate  would be up, to 0.4%. The challenging economic environment, the fiscal  consolidation process under way, and the seriousness of the labour  market condition, do not allow for expectations of a recovery in  consumption in the next few months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  Spain, inflation is estimated at 3.1% y\/y in September, from 2.6% y\/y  the previous month at the national level, due to a partial lag in the  transfer of the 2% hike in VAT rates to end consumer prices. Residual  effects of the indirect tax hike should also be visible at least in  October as well, as many retailers have said they intend to wait before  adjusting prices upwards. The VAT hike will weigh on the 2012 average by  around four-tenths (2.6%), and on the 2013 average by around  nine-tenths (2,8%).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  Inflation should stay at 3.2% in September, in line with August (prices  were probably stable in the month); harmonised inflation should also  come in stable at 3.3% (+1.9% m\/m). The price trend is expected to  moderate in Italy as well, between now and the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  preliminary estimate of September inflation in the euro area should be  2.4%, from 2.6% in August, resulting in a 0.1% m\/m contraction in the  price index; moderation should be guided by easing pressures from fuel  prices. After peaking in the summer, inflation should slow and close the  year at 2%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal  spending in August is forecast to rise by 0.5% m\/m: the change should  largely be due to higher prices. In real terms, spending on durable  goods should be up thanks to the positive trend of the auto sector.  Personal income is forecast to be up moderately, by 0.2% m\/m: earned  income should be up by only 0.1% m\/m, in light of weak employment report  data on the number of employed workers, work hours, and wages. However,  the other components of income should maintain a more sustained trend.  The savings rate is expected to be down to 4% from 4.2% in July.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  Chicago PMI in September should drop to 52.5 from 53.1 in August. The  message from all manufacturing surveys is homogeneous: activity is  barely growing in the sector. Moreover, we expect the 4th quarter to  show further weakness in the wake of the huge uncertainty tied to the  fiscal cliff.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  University of Michigan consumer confidence index should correct  marginally in September (final), to 78.5 from 79.2, after the rise  recorded by the preliminary estimate. While the factors that have  depressed confidence in recent months have not been removed (uncertainty  over fiscal policy, persistently weak labour market, gasoline prices),  the market upswing has helped contain their effects.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Busy week in the euro area in terms of economic data releases, with the IFO, INSEE, ISAE and European Commission confidence surveys at the fore. The surveys should all confirm a slight improvement in expectations, as opposed to deteriorating views on present conditions&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1119\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}