{"id":1120,"date":"2012-09-28T08:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-09-28T08:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/09\/28\/makrooekonomische-daten-01-05-oktober-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-09-28T08:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-09-28T08:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-01-05-oktober-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-01-05-oktober-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 01- 05 Oktober 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus this week will be on the ECB meeting.   Macroeconomic data due for release should not reap particular effects on   the markets, confirming depressed PMIs, persistently weak retail sales   both in Germany and in the area euro as a whole, a tendency towards a   further increase in unemployment in Italy and in the euro area, and a   likely drop in manufacturing orders in Germany&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A host of economic data is due for  release this week in the United States. The September employment report  should record a change in non-farm payrolls only slightly larger than in  August. The unemployment rate may be up due to higher participation.  ISM indices should prove broadly unchanged in September, signalling a  stagnation of manufacturing and a modest expansion of the  non-manufacturing sector; construction spending should record a moderate  increase. Auto sales should be in line with August data. The minutes of  the September FOMC meeting are expected to reveal consensus for a  likely extension of QE3 into 2013, even in the face of some opponents of  the program.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 1 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The September manufacturing PMI should  confirm the preliminary estimate of 46 (up from 45.1 in August). The  divergence between the German index, on the rise, and the French, on the  decline, will also be confirmed. The first reading of the Italian PMI  could reveal easing pessimism, rising to 44.1 from 43.6. The level of  the euro area PMI remains compatible with a contraction in GDP.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The unemployment rate in the euro area  is estimated to be up by one tenth in August, to 11.4%; this would mark a  new historical high since the series began over 20 years ago.  Unemployment could prove to have stayed stable in core Europe, as  opposed to a further rise in peripheral countries. Future prospects are  for an ongoing deterioration in labour market conditions until the first  half of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The unemployment rate may rise  back up in August, to an estimated 10.8%, after staying stable at 10.7%  in July. Youth unemployment could rise to a new historical high. The  deterioration of labour market conditions should continue through the  first half of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Retail sales are expected to  have recovered modestly in August, to +0.2% m\/m from -1% m\/m in July.  The marginal recovery forecast in August would translate into a -0.9%  contraction in year-on-year terms. In Germany as well, the trend of  consumer spending is by no means brilliant, and is expected to have  slowed this quarter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The manufacturing sector ISM should  climb back to 50 in September, from 49.6 in August.The Philly Fed and  Dallas Fed indices stayed in negative territory, while rebounding  moderately; the Richmond Fed index improved to 4 in September, from -9  in August, rising above zero for the first time since May. The Empire,  on the other hand, slipped even further, although broken down data drew a  markedly less bleak picture than the activity index, suggesting that  the overall reading priced in excessive pessimism. In any case, there is  no indication of the ISM managing to rise significantly above 50: the  index would stay at around 50 for the fourth month in a row, confirming a  lack of direction and a stagnation of activity. Until uncertainties  lift on the fiscal outlook and on the \u201cfiscal cliff\u201d, businesses are  likely to remain extremely cautious, and the postpone spending and  hiring decisions. This means significant weakness should persist at  least until November.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Construction spending in August should  be up by +0.2% m\/m, after the surprise decline in July (-0.9% m\/m). In  previous months, spending in the residential segment had increased at  brisker rates than justified by the underlying trend, also positive, of  housing starts; therefore, the sector should show modest growth. The  other components of construction spendine (commercial and public, which  together account for around 80% of the total) should prove stagnant,  containing the overall trend, despite the generally positive performance  of the residential sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 2 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The PPI will rise sharply in August,  both on a monthly basis (+0.9% m\/m in our estimation), and year-on-year  (from 1.8% to 2.8%), following the increases recorded in all the main  countries (Germany +0.5%, France +1.2%, Italy +0.8%, Spain +1.1%).  Energy was the main driver of the increases. However, going forward,  pressures upstream of the production chain do not seem not pose a  significant threat to the outlook, especially net of the most volatile  components.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Auto sales in September are estimated to  approximately stable at 14.4 million ann.; September is the tail-end  month for the sale of 2012 models, in waiting for deliveries of new  models to start in October. Sales should stay at their current levels in  the closing months of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 3 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In September, the composite PMI could  confirm the preliminary reading of 45.9, down marginally from 46.3 in  August. The services index could also be confirmed at 46 (down from 47.2  the previous month). The divergence between a rising index in Germany  and a declinino one in France should be replicated in the services  sector as well. The initial estimate of the Italian services PMI could  bring a drop to 41, after the rebound to 44 in August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales in the euro area are  expected to have contracted again in August, we estimate by at least two  tenths of a percentage point. Demand should stay weak in all euro area  countries, and low consumer confidence does not allow for expectations  of a trend reversal in consumption in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The non-manufacturing ISM is expected to  be little changed in September, and to stay at 53.5, not far off the  53.7 index in August, in line with the average for the past five months.  Broken down survey data in August was broadly in line with the July  breakdown. The sector is still expanding at a moderate pace, with no  indication of accelerating.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 4 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The minutes of the September FOMC  meeting will be important in shedding some light on the opinions of  participants with regards to the future of QE3. We believe there is  widespread consensus in favour of an extension of QE3 into the opening  quarters of 2013, together with an expansion of the total amount of  outright security purchases, to keep the total purchased at the long end  of the curve broadly stable: at the end of the year, when Operation  Twist will be over, the FOMC should announce around 40-45Bn in purchases  of Treasuries, on top of the 40Bn in MBS included in the programme  specified in September. The minutes should also show widespread  consensus on the forecast of broadly unchanged labour market conditions  in the next two quarters. Furthermore, the minutes are expected to  document an intense discussion (still open at the moment) on the  anchoring of new stimulus measures to a \u201csubstantial improvement\u201d in  labour market conditions. For now, the condition on which tobase  continuation of the stimulus programme should stay intentionally vague,  given the difficulties in finding an agreement on more specific  conditions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 5 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. After rebounding in July  (+0.5%), factory orders are expected to drop again in August, by -0.4%  in our estimation. Foreign orders should continue to weaken, from other  euro area countries in particular. The indications provided by  forward-looking indices support expectations for a further weakening of  demand in the second quarter of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The September employment report should  record a change in non-farm payrolls of 115k, from 96k in August  (average for the past three months: 94k). In August, employment data was  distorted by the shutdown of auto production facilities over the summer  for maintenance: September should bring a resurgence in the underlying  trend of job creation, to close to 120- 130k (average since the  beginning of the year: 139k). Employment in the private sector should be  up by 120k. The unemployment rate could climb back to 8.2% in the wake  of a modest recovery of the participation rate, after the two-tenths  correction seen in August. Hourly wages should grow by 0.2% m\/m.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus this week will be on the ECB meeting. Macroeconomic data due for release should not reap particular effects on the markets, confirming depressed PMIs, persistently weak retail sales both in Germany and in the area euro as a whole, a tendency towards a further increase in unemployment in Italy and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1120"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1120\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}