Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/strong><\/p>\n
\nThe data show a rotation of factors behind the price change, potentially worrying for the inflationary scenario in the coming quarters.<\/p>\n
We expect the ECB <\/b>to announce on 9 June that APP net purchases will end on 1 July, and that the first rate hike will be implemented on 21 July. The 2022 and 2023 inflation forecasts will be raised sharply, while growth forecasts will be cut. There is a risk that normalisation will be further accelerated in the coming months, as markets now expect.<\/p>\n
The week\u2019s market movers<\/b><\/p>\n
In the euro area <\/b>, April industrial output is expected to contract in Italy, after proving unexpectedly resilient the previous month, while in Germany output and orders could bounce only partially after heavy downturns in March. The outlook for manufacturing in the next few months remains weak in any case. In the euro area, the third estimate of GDP will be released, alongside the breakdown of demand components. On Sunday, June 12 will be held the first round of the French National Assembly election and the administrative elections in Italy (where the vote on 5 referendum questions on justice is also on the agenda).<\/p>\n
There is little data out in the United States <\/b> this week, but the May CPI will keep markets’ attention high on the eve of the mid-June FOMC meeting. Core inflation in May is expected to mark a monthly increase of 0.5% m\/m, although on an annual basis it should be confirmed that the cyclical peak was reached (for now) in April. The headline figure will also be driven by positive contributions from energy and food. Consumer confidence is expected to rebound modestly in June, while the April trade deficit is expected to narrow broadly.<\/p>\n
\n
Appendix
\nAnalyst Certification<\/strong><\/span>
\nThe financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/span><\/p>\nImportant Disclosures<\/strong><\/span>
\nThis research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<\/span>
\nOpinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.<\/span>
\nThis report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<\/span>
\nNo Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.<\/span>
\nThis document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<\/span>
\nIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<\/span>
\nMember companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<\/span>
\nUS persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above).<\/span>
\n
\nValuation Methodology<\/strong><\/span>
\nTrading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<\/span>
\n
\nCoverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><\/span>
\nIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/span><\/p>\nSource: BONDWorld<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Intesa Sanpaolo:\u00a0 May’s HICP surprised on the upside again, causing core inflation to jump to 4.4% y\/y, a new all-time high.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[50],"tags":[121],"class_list":["post-11250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-analysis","tag-intesa-sanpaolo"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11250"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11250\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11251,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11250\/revisions\/11251"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11250"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}