{"id":1130,"date":"2012-10-08T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-08T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/10\/08\/makrooekonomische-daten-08-12-oktober-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-10-08T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-08T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-08-12-oktober-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-08-12-oktober-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 08 &#8211; 12 Oktober 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will be on the Eurogroup and on the inaugural  meeting of the ESM, as well as obviously on the possible unblocking of  the impasse in Spain and Greece&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The calendar of economic data releases includes August industrial output data for the three main countries and for the area as a whole, which are all expected to be down. No surprise should come from September inflation in the main countries (preliminary readings have already been made<br \/>available in Germany, Italy, and Spain).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Few data releases are due this week in the United States. September PPI and import prices should be up, driven by the energy and agriculture components. October consumer confidence should be close to September levels. The trade balance deficit is estimated to have widened in August, on the back of higher oil prices, as opposed to stagnant exports. The Beige Book should confirm the very moderate pace of economic activity growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 8 October<br \/>Euro area<br \/>&#8211; Germany<\/strong>. August industrial output is expected to be down in the month, after the surge recorded in July (+1.3% m\/m). We expect a three-tenth drop, which would translate into only a slight change in the annual rate (to -1.3% y\/y). Output would stay on course for a recovery in the Summer quarter, after stagnating in the Spring, although the recent trend of the IFO index indicates that output will continue to slow at least until the end of the year.<br \/>&#8211; The Eurogroup is expected to adopt a decision modifying the conditions underpinning assistance to Portugal, with a view to disbursement of the next instalment of financial assistance, following a review of progress by Portugal in implementation of its economic adjustment programme. Spain and Greece will also be discussed, although decisions on this front are unlikely to be made. The Eurogroup-Ecofin agenda will also include a discussion on the introduction of a financial transaction tax, and on possible changes to the European Semester monitoring exercise, as well as preparation of the G-20 Finance Ministers\u2019 and of the annual meeting of the IMF and World Bank Group. The Eurogroup will be preceded by the inaugural meeting of the board of governors of the ESM.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 10 October<br \/>Euro area<br \/>&#8211; France<\/strong>. Industrial output is expected to have dropped by two-tenths in August, therefore by exactly the same amount gained in July. On an annual basis, output would drop to -3.8%, returning to the levels hit in May, the lowest since 2009. Output is on course for a similar decline in the summer quarter as was recorded in the previous two (-0.5% q\/q).<br \/><strong>&#8211; Italy<\/strong>. Industrial output is expected to have dropped again in August, in our estimation by fourtenths month-on-month. In annual terms, output would slip back to -6.7% (from a previous rate of -4.4% unadjusted, and -7.3% adjusted by workdays). Third quarter of the year should bring a drop in output of just over one per cent, marking an improvement from -1.7% q\/q in the previous quarter. Based on the level of survey indices and on financial conditions, output<br \/>could continue to contract until the end of 1H 2013.<br \/><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The Fed will publish the Beige Book ahead of the November FOMC meeting. The report should show that economic activity growth is still moderate, with a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector and weak exports. The residential construction sector should again be singled out as the main driver of growth. Indications on prices and the labour market should be in line with the previous: no pressure on prices and wages, and contained employment growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 11 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/><strong>&#8211; France<\/strong>. Inflation is estimated to have dropped by one-tenth in August, from 2.1% to 2% at the national level, and from 2.4% to 2.3% for the harmonised rate. In the month, prices are estimated to have dropped by two-tenths for the national index, and one-tenth at the harmonised level. A drop in fuel prices is expected to have added itself to already favourable<br \/>seasonal effects. Prices should moderate significantly in the months ahead.<br \/><strong>&#8211; Germany<\/strong>. Inflation should slow again in September, by one-tenth to 2% at the national level, and to 2.1% in harmonised terms. The decline in prices in the month should be confirmed at two-tenths for the national index, and three-tenths for the harmonised index. In Germany as well, we expect inflation pressures to moderate in the months ahead.<br \/><strong>&#8211; Spain<\/strong>. The second reading of September inflation should confirm the preliminary estimate of 3.5%, from 2.7% in August (both for the national and harmonised indices). A good part of the 2% VAT hike seems to have already been transferred downstream. Inflation still has a margin to rise between now and the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Import prices are estimated to have risen by 0.7% m\/m in September, on a par with August.<br \/>The increase is being driven by the rise in oil prices, but should also be visible net of the latter, as a result of the weaker dollar. Export prices should experience another strong rise, fuelled by higher agricultural commodity prices.<br \/>&#8211; The trade balance should show a widening of the deficit to 43.8 billion in August, after the stabilisation seen in July (at 42 billion). The deficit will be affected higher oil prices, which should inflate nominal imports (+1.4% m\/m). As regards exports, weak global demand, with both Europe and Asia at the fore, should result in modest nominal growth, despite new increases in the agricultural sector export prices.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 12 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/><strong>&#8211; Italy<\/strong>. Inflation should be confirmed at 3.2% in August for the national NIC index, and at 3.4% at the harmonised level; prices were stable based on the national index, and accelerated sharply in harmonised terms (by 2.1% m\/m). In the month, sharper than expected price increases were recorded in food (+0.6%), hotel and restaurant services (+0.5%), and<br \/>spending for the home (+0.4%). Prices decreased less than expected in the leisure sector (- 0.5%), whereas education prices rose broadly in line with the typical seasonal trend (1.1%); vice versa, the decline in transport prices was sharper than expected (-1.3%), and prices in the clothing &amp; apparel and health services sectors remained stable, as opposed to expectations for an increase. An interesting aspect is that inflation on high-purchase-frequency goods (which affects consumer perception of inflation) soared to 4.7%. However, we stick to the idea that between now and the end of the year inflation could come down by a few tenths.<br \/>&#8211; Industrial output in the euro area as a whole should drop again in August, by three-tenths, after rising by half a point in a July. This should translate into a 4% year-on-year contraction, vs. -2.7% in July, marking a low since 2009. In any case, output is on course for a stabilisation in 3Q 2012, after declining in the three previous quarters.<br \/><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The September PPI is estimated to show a 0.8% m\/m rise. The index will be driven by higher gasoline and food prices, inflated by increases in the agricultural commodity segment. The core index should keep up its pace of growth of +0.2% m\/m.<br \/>&#8211; October consumer confidence, as surveyed by the University of Michigan (preliminary), should drop slightly, to 77.8 from 78.3 in September (final). A modest correction of the stock market, combined with the increases in gasoline price recorded at the end of September, and a still weak labour market, should result in confidence stabilising on levels close to those seen last spring.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will be on the Eurogroup and on the inaugural meeting of the ESM, as well as obviously on the possible unblocking of the impasse in Spain and Greece&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1130","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1130"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1130\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}