{"id":1137,"date":"2012-10-15T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-15T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/makrooekonomische-daten-15-19-oktober-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-10-15T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-15T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-15-19-oktober-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-15-19-oktober-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 15 &#8211; 19 Oktober 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The week will be a rather quiet one in terms of economic data releases,   and focus will be mostly on the outcome of the European Council meeting   of 18-19 October, which is expected to yield a roadmap on the banking   union process&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <br \/><\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  most important release due in the week is the German ZEW index (first  confidence index for October), which should build on the rebound  recorded in September. Euro area inflation will be confirmed at 2.7% in  September, with the core index staying lower than the ECB target.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy  calendar of data releases this week in the United States. Regional  manufacturing sector surveys should rise back in October, closing in  part the gap versus the ISM. Retail sales should be up in September, in  part due to price increases, and in part driven by demand for autos and  electronics; manufacturing output should come in broadly flat, whereas  existing home sales are expected to decline. The CPI should mark another  sharp rise in September, driven by gasoline<br \/>and food.<br \/><strong><br \/>Monday 15 October<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The NY Fed Empire index should climb back in October to -1 from -10.4  in September. The regional surveys were much poorer than the ISM over  the summer, and there is room for a narrowing of the differential: the  correlation between the ISM and Empire indices points to a 8.3 reading  for the Empire. Summer data have been extraordinarily weak over the past  three years, and may reflect seasonal adjustment difficulties,  following the huge corrections<br \/>recorded during the recession. In any  case, the underlying indications, beyond the volatility of sub-periods,  remain compatible with a very modest growth in activity, only just  better than stagnation.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Retail sales should be up in September by 1% m\/m, from +0.9% m\/m in  August. The aggregate is expected to be driven by autos, gasoline, and  electronics (iPhone), as opposed to widespread weakness elsewhere, based  on the information provided by weekly sales. Auto sales were  surprisingly strong in the month (+2.9% m\/m), and a portion should  support consumption. Gasoline prices have increased in October, and  should contribute to driving up sales, albeit less so than in August  (5.5% m\/m). Retail sales net of autos are forecast to be up by 0.8% m\/m,  as in the previous month. October data, even net of autos and gasoline,  should lead to a modest acceleration in consumption growth, although  the contribution of the electronics sector is temporary, and we do not  expect household spending to exceed 2% in real terms in the next few  quarters.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 16 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; September  inflation in the euro area is expected to be confirmed at 2.7% y\/y, from  2.6% y\/y in August. The detailed estimate should show a +0.7% m\/m  increase, in parte due to pressures from energy and food prices, and to  the VAT rate hike in Spain. Underlying core inflation as monitored by  the ECB (net of energy and fresh food prices) should stay at 1.7% y\/y,  excluding energy, tobacco and food prices, inflation is forecast stable  at 1.5% y\/y. In the months ahead, euro area inflation should  progressively ease back towards 2%, although further tensions on energy  and food commodities will slow the downtrend. Additional pressures could  come from indirect taxation and administered prices, given the urgency  of the fiscal consolidation process.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>Germany.<\/strong> In October,  the ZEW confidence index of analyst and institutional investor  expectations referred to the German economy should continue to show  easing pessimism, thanks to slackening tensions on the financial  markets. The expectations component, after recovering to -18.2 in  September (from -25.5 in August), could improve further, to -14;  assessments of the current situation are also expected to brighten,  after worsening unexpectedly in September, and the index could rise to  15 from 12.6.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The CPI is estimated to  be up by 0.5% m\/m in September, driven by gasoline price increases and  accelerating prices in the food sector. The core rate is estimated at  +0.2% m\/m, following two +0.1% m\/m changes. Clothing &amp; apparel,  education, and hotel prices should reaccelerate after moderate changes  or slight contractions; the upward thrust from the shelter component (in  particular rents and imputed rents) observed in the past year and a  half should stabilise.<br \/>Core inflation should climb back to 2% y\/y, from 1.9% y\/y in August.<br \/>&#8211;  Industrial production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m\/m in  September. The employment report drew a weak picture of work hours in  the manufacturing sector in September; activity in the auto sector  dropped. Manufacturing sector output is estimated to have contracted in  the month, balanced by a modest expansion in mining and utilities.<br \/>&#8211; The NAHB builders\u2019 confidence index is estimated to rise further in October, to 41 from 40 in September.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 17 October<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Housing starts are expected to rise to a 770k in September, from 750k  in August; the multifamily segment is estimated to recover, after  contracting sharply in August. Work hours in the construction sector  increased in September, and builders\u2019 confidence is still on a solid  uptrend.<br \/>Permits should rise to 805k from 801k in August, keeping up the moderately positive trend recorded since June 2011.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 18 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The European Council meeting will discuss the state of the project to  strengthen the economic and monetary union, and especially the proposals  on a single banking supervision mechanism. The meeting will extend to  Friday 19th.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The Philadelphia Fed index  is forecast on the rise to 2 in October from -1.9 in September. The  regional surveys were much poorer than the ISM throughout the summer,  opening a persistently wide gap. As for the Empire, the Philly Fed index  is expected to converge back towards levels in line with the historical  relationship with the national index, rising back into marginally  positive territory. In the closing months of the year, the manufacturing  sector should experience positive growth, albeit extremely moderate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 19 October<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The producer price index in Germany could slow down in September,  staying flat vs. the previous month after rising by 0.5% in August; the  year on year rate would be 1.4%, from 1.6% in August. Energy price  moderation may have guided the slowdown at the end of the summer.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Existing home sales are estimated to have grown to 4.7 million ann. in  September, from 4.82 million in August. Pending home sales were down in  August, signalling a correction in final September sales, after the  sharp increase seen in August. Sales will keep growing at a positive  rate in any case, in line with all the other residential real estate  sector indicators.<\/div>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The week will be a rather quiet one in terms of economic data releases, and focus will be mostly on the outcome of the European Council meeting of 18-19 October, which is expected to yield a roadmap on the banking union process&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}