{"id":1138,"date":"2012-10-19T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-19T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/10\/19\/makrooekonomische-daten-22-26-oktober-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-10-19T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-19T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-22-26-oktober-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-22-26-oktober-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 22 &#8211; 26 Oktober 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This week the main confidence indices in the Euro Area for the month of October will be published&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> The indices are expected to stabilise  on moderate levels, signalling that while sentiment should not  deteriorate further, a swift recovery is still not on the cards: easing  tensions on the financial markets prevented confidence from plunging to  even lower levels, but the challenging context (restrictive fiscal  policies and slowdown of the global economy) is hindering a return into  expansive territory. Final data on 2011deficit and debt, to be released  at the beginning of the week by Eurostat, will also be of interest. <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The data due out this week in the United  States should confirm a picture of moderate growth, with mixed  performances among sectors. In September, new home sales should  accelerate, and orders of durable goods should recover after plunging in  August, while maintaining a trend in line with a contraction in  business fixed investments. The advance 3Q 2012 GDP estimate should  outline a slightly more solid pace of growth than in the previous  quarter, albeit still slower than 2%. The FOMC meeting is expected to be  on \u201cwait and see\u201d mode, with no major developments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 22 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Public finances. Eurostat will publish  its definitive estimates of 2011 deficit and debt in the euro area  countries. Spanish data will command particular attention, as the  resources handed out by the Madrid government to support the banking  system should trigger a revision of the 2011 deficit in the order of  0.5% of GDP, and may even weigh on the structural deficit. Euro area  debt should be confirmed at 87.2% of GDP.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 23 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The advance October estimate of consumer  confidence as surveyed by the European Commission is expected to  stabilise at -26, well below the long-term average (-12.4). While easing  tensions on the financial markets should cool pessimism somewhat, a  brightening of households\u2019 sentiment is being hindered by expectations  for the effects of restrictive financial policies next year. Therefore,  the consumption outlook up to the end of the year remains rather  subdued.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. The INSEE business confidence  index could climb back to 91 in October, after stabilising over the  summer. The indications provided by some components of last month\u2019s  report were for a marginal improvement, but not such as to fuel a faster  brightening in confidence: the recovery of the index is being hindered  by the weak global context, as well as by the negative effects fiscal  restriction will have next year on corporate earnings. An index on such  stubbornly low levels (vs. a historical average of around 100) is  compatible with stagnant productive activity in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 24 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The preliminary estimate of the October  composite PMI index could mark a recovery to 46.4 from 46.1 the previous  month. Progress could prove to be stronger in the manufacturing sector  (46.5) than in services (46.3). Indices would in any case stay at levels  compatible with a slight decline in productive activity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The IFO index could come in  broadly flat in October at 101.2 (from 101.4), still above the long-term  average (100.9). The index of expectations for the months ahead should  stay at 93.2 (long-term average of 100.1), whereas the assessment of  current conditions is likely to have worsened, to 109.5 from 110.3  previously (long-term average of 101.8). The gap between expectations  and the current situation signalled a slowdown in GDP growth already  last summer, and the trend should be confirmed in the autumn months. We  estimate GDP growth in 4Q 2012 at 0.1%-0.2%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. October consumer confidence is  expected to rebound moderately to 86.5, after stabilising in September  at 86.2. The stronger trend of the financial markets may have improved  sentiment among consumers, but confidence is being prevented from  brightening further by uncertainties tied to the austerity measures and  to labour market conditions. Survey data was collected in the first 10  workdays of the month, and therefore the announcement (on 10 October) of  the measures contained in the Stability Law should have a limited  impact this month. The current situation component could prove to be in  line with the August level (94), while the general forward-looking index  is expected to recover to 77.5 from 76.9. In any case, the confidence  survey is expected to provide indications compatible with an ongoing  contraction in consumption in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New home sales are expected to rise in  September, to 390k from 373k in August. The strong improvement in  builders\u2019 confidence and in the current sales index in September bodes  well for sales. However, the correlation between the two series has  weakened since the start of the crisis: in the past, the current levels  of the builders\u2019 confidence index implied sales of around 850k.  Lingering credit restraints and the slowed creation of new households  due to high unemployment levels, continue to represent a lasting drag on  the pace of growth of the residential real estate sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">No changes should come from the FOMC  meeting. The view on the economy is not expected to differ from the  September assessment, as economic data continue to indicate that growth  is proceeding at a \u201cmoderate pace\u201d, with consumption increasing somewhat  more, as opposed to a contraction in investments. The unemployment rate  should drop, while still outlining a weak labour market trend due to  modest aggregate growth, also hindered by fiscal policy uncertainties.  The press release should stress the flexibility of the new MBS purchase  programme, reasserting that the labour market is still far from  equilibrium levels due to a lack of demand, justifying a continuation of  purchases.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 25 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Annual M3 growth is forecast stable at  2.9% in September, placing the moving quarterly average at 3.1% (from  3.2% previously). The M1 aggregate is estimated to have kept growing at a  sharp pace (+5.1% in August), as opposed to a persistently negative  trend of lending to enterprises (-0.8% in August).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Orders of durable goods in September are  expected to be up by 6.5% m\/m, after plunging in August (-13.2% m\/m),  driven by the civil aviation sector. Net of the transport component,  orders should be up by only 0.5% m\/m. The manufacturing sector ISM  showed quite a good a recovery in the orders component, back up to 52.3  after three consecutive months below the  50-point threshold. In 4Q  2012, orders could also pick up in the defence sector, driven by a  recovery in spending authorisations in the closing months of the year.  In any case, the trend of capital goods orders remains negative, placing  downward pressures on forecasts for investments in machinery and  software in 4Q 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 26 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Business confidence could drop  back down in October (to 87.8 in our estimation), after surprising on  the upside last month with a reading of 88.3. The improvement in  confidence recorded in September is not very likely to continue in  October, given the challenging economic environment in Italy. The index  remains on depressed levels, well below the longterm average of 100.4,  compatible with persistently economic growth, albeit no longer  deteriorating. Survey data was collected between October 1st and 19,  therefore the announcement (on 10 October) of the measures contained in  the Stability Law may already have an impact on the survey (not a  positive one, in our view, given the strengthening of fiscal pressure on  enterprises).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The advance 3Q 2012 GDP estimate should  outline a 1.7% q\/q ann. growth rate, on the rise from a modest rate  of1.3% q\/q ann. in 2Q. The data should reveal a moderate recovery in  consumption following the slowdown in 2Q 2012 (to 2.2% q\/q ann. from  1.3% q\/q ann.), a further rise in residential investments, as opposed to  weaker non-residential fixed investments and public spending. Net  exports should continue to contribute negatively to growth by around  -0.3pp. The strongest positive contribution to growth in the quarter  should come from inventories.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as surveyed by the  University of Michigan in October (final) should correct slightly after  the surge in the preliminary October index, dropping to 82.5 from 83.1<\/p>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week the main confidence indices in the Euro Area for the month of October will be published&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1138","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}