{"id":1144,"date":"2012-10-26T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-26T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/10\/26\/makrooekonomische-daten-26-oktober-2-november-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-10-26T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-26T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-26-oktober-2-november-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-26-oktober-2-november-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 26 Oktober &#8211; 2 November 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will be on the extraordinary Eurogroup meeting   at the beginning of the week, and on the G-20 at the end of the week.   The calendar of macro events includes the release of the initial   estimate of 3Q GDP growth (in Spain), completion of the round of October   confidence indices, and a set of indications on price and labour  market  trends&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spanish GDP is expected to confirm the  0.4% estimated by the Bank of Spain. The EU Commission\u2019s composite index  should be down for the eight month in a row in October; the composite  PMI is also expected to be in line with the preliminary reading\u2019s  decline. Inflation is forecast to moderate in October, thanks to a  slowdown in energy prices; the exception will be Spain, still feeling  the residual effects of the VAT hike. The unemployment rate is estimated  to hit a new long-term high, as ongoing labour market deterioration in  peripheral countries is being left unbalanced by employment growth in  core countries. Lastly, consumption spending is expected to have  declined in France<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy calendar of data releases this week  in the United States. September data should provide positive  indications for consumption and residential real estate. As regards  October, the ISM and Chicago PMI should confirm a modest activity growth  in the manufacturing sector; auto sales should be up further. The  October employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls\u2019 growth  in line with the recent trend (around 110k non-farm payrolls), and a  one-tenth rise in the unemployment rate, to 7.9%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Japan, the BoJ meeting should significantly step up monetary stimulus.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 29 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Eurogroup. The Euro Working Group (EWG)  is scheduled to end, during which the Greek government presented its  austerity budget for the 2013-2014 two-year period, agreed upon with the  Troika. The EWG will have to assess the feasibility of the fiscal plan,  and its approval will be crucial in enabling the Eurogroup meeting on  12 November to unblock the 31 billion euro tranche of the bailout  package, on hold since June. Also, the EWG could define the financing  modalities of a potential postponement of fiscal objectives (the Greek  government is asking for achievement of the 4.4 billion euro deficit  target to be pushed back to 2016, from 2014), and find ways to guarantee  the sustainability of public debt. Lastly, the EWG could impose closer  monitoring of Greece\u2019s fiscal performance and reform process, and call  for stricter operating conditions with regards to the deposit account  with the Bank of Greece guaranteeing repayment of public debt.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. October inflation is expected  to drop to 1.8% from 2% in September, with the price index contracting  by 0.1% on a monthly basis. Harmonised inflation should also level off  at 1.8%, with the index on the decline by 0.2% m\/m. Price growth  moderation is largely ascribable to lower oil prices. Inflation should  drop by another few tenths between now and the end of the year, and  moderate further in the opening months of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal spending is estimated to have  increased in September by 0.6% m\/m. Overall consumption should be solid,  in light of strong retail sales data (both including the auto sector  and ex-auto). Personal income should be up by 0.3% m\/m; a rather strong  increase in labour income should be balanced by lower interest income  and by the negative effects of the expiration of emergency unemployment  benefits. The savings rate should decrease further, from 3.7% in August  to 3.5% in September. The consumption deflator is expected to rise by  0.3% m\/m, and the core index by 0.1% m\/m, keeping the year-on-year rate  at 1.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 30 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spain. Inflation is expected to increase  in October to 3.6%, resulting in a +1% change in month-on-month terms,  as was the case in September; harmonised inflation would be up to 3.7%,  with the index on the rise by 0.7% m\/m. Although a good portion of the  VAT hike has already been reflected by prices, inflation will continue  to accelerate until the end of the year, also as a result of a  statistical effect.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spain. Third quarter GDP growth could be  negative by 0.4%, as anticipated by the Bank of Spain in its October  bulletin. Therefore, the reading would not show a worsening of the  recession compared to the previous three months, essentially as a result  of spending decisions being brought forward to the summer, ahead of the  VAT hike as of September. Our forecasts for 2012 as a whole point to  contraction of around 1.4%: the recession will deepen in 2013, when GDP  is forecast to contract by 1.6%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The unemployment rate could  rise to 6.9% in September, after staying at 6.8% (its lowest level since  the series began over 20 years ago) for 10 months. The number of  unemployed could rise by 15k, accelerating slightly compared to the past  three months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The European Commission\u2019s composite  index for the euro area as a whole should drop to 84 in October, from 85  the previous month. Consumer confidence should confirm the preliminary  reading of -25.6, up only marginally from -25.9 in September, in any  case staying at levels compatible with a contraction in household  spending. Business confidence is expected to deteriorate both in  manufacturing (to -17.5 from -16.1) and, to a lesser degree, in services  (to -12.5 from -12).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as surveyed by the  Conference Board in October should rise to 76 from 70.3 in September, in  line with the recent uptrend expressed by all the indicators of  household confidence. According to the University of Michigan survey,  confidence improved by almost 5 points, with a marked brightening of the  forward-looking component. Unlike businesses, households do not seem to  be greatly affected by concerns ahead of the fiscal cliff: the  prevailing forces are currently the positive influence on confidence of  the consolidating uptrend in home prices, and the confirmed turnaround  of the residential real estate sector. After the elections, focus will  shift back on the restrictive measures planned for 2013, and the recent  uptrend could be interrupted.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Japan<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The BoJ meeting should significantly  step up the monetary stimulus already in place. The meeting coincides  with the publication of half-yearly economic forecasts, which should  confirm projected inflation consistently below the 1% target in 2013, in  addition to a sharp slowdown in growth compared to 2012. We expect the  central bank to announce a significant expansion of its securities  purchase programme. The BoJ may announce an openended purchase  programme, in Fed-style, raising the monthly purchases currently called  for by the existing programme. It the BoJ is not ready for such a  decisive change in gear, it could in any case opt for a 15-20 tln yen  extension of the purchase programme, including a limited share of risk  assets (ETF, REITs) and concentrating most of the expansion on JGBs,  possibly also on longer maturities than those covered hitherto (2-3  years). Some forecasters include among the possible expansion of the  program the purchase of foreign currency securities. The yen is already  reflecting expectations for new stimulus, and is back close to 80  against the dollar for the first time since June.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 31 October<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Consumer spending is expected to  have contracted slightly in September. Retail sales could be down by  0.1%, vs. -0.8 in August, translating into a -0.5% y\/y drop; in the  quarter, consumption would therefore record another positive change,  albeit limited to 0.1%. Retail sales are not expected to receive any  support from the automotive sector, as car registration growth was  virtually zero in September; on the other hand, a boost may come from a  rebound in clothing and apparel sales after the summer contraction. The  consumption trend is expected to weaken in the closing weeks of the  year, due to deteriorating consumer sentiment tied to difficult labour  market conditions and expectations for fiscal tightening.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The unemployment rate could be  back on the rise in September, to 10.8% in our estimation, after staying  put at 10.7% in the previous three months. The previous month\u2019s  stabilisation was due to an increase in inactive workers, despite a drop  in the number of the employed. In our view, unemployment could continue  to rise at least for the next six months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The flash estimate of inflation in the  euro area should moderate to 2.3%, from 2.6% in September, translating  into a +0.1% month-on-month rise of the consumer price index. Moderating  energy prices should help cool inflation, which could drop below 2% in  the opening months of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The unemployment rate in the euro area  could be up by one-tenth in September, to 11.5%, hitting a new  historical high. The further deterioration of the labour market in  peripheral countries is not being balanced, at present, by an opposite  trend in core countries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. In October inflation should drop  slow to 2.8% from 3.2% in September, with the price index rising by 0.2%  month-on-month. Harmonised inflation should be down to 3% from 3,4% the  previous month, placing the index at +0.5% m\/m (vs. +2.1% in  September). In Italy as well, price moderation is the result of easing  pressures from the energy component, albeit balanced in the month by  higher tariffs (electricity +1.4%, gas +1.1%).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ADP estimate of non-farm payrolls in  the private sector is forecast by consensus at 135k, lower than the  September ADP figure (162k).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In October the Chicago PMI should climb  back to 52 after sliding to 49.7 in September. The survey breakdown was  rather negative in September, with orders dropping below 50 (to 47.4, a  low since September 2009), and employment and output on the decline,  albeit above 50. Activity in the auto sector should accelerate back in  October, and auto sales are expected to stay solid throughout the  autumn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 1 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Productivity in 3Q is estimated to have increased by +1.2% q\/q, down from +2.2% q\/q in 2Q 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The manufacturing ISM should come in  broadly unchanged in October, at 51.2, from 51.5 in September. Regional  survey data were mixed in October; the September ISM survey, while  showing an improvement, still placed orders and output below the  50-point threshold; data on the manufacturing sector point to a  stabilisation of activity, with no sign of a significant reacceleration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Construction spending in September  should be up by 0.7% m\/m, after dropping by -0.6% m\/m in August. Housing  starts were particularly strong in September, on the rise by 15% m\/m,  although completed units grew at a much slower pace. Spending in  residential construction is expected to have increased, as opposed to a  stabilisation of spending in the commercial construction segment and an  ongoing decline in the public sector. Spending on residential  investments will contribute positively to growth throughout 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Motor vehicle sales in October are  estimated to have increased by a further 15 million ann. from 14.88 in  September, with auto sales to companies also making a strong  contribution.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 2 November<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The October manufacturing PMI in the  euro area should confirm the preliminary reading of 45.3, down from 46.1  in September. The forward-looking cycle indicator has dropped to  extremely low levels, compatible with a contraction in GDP at the end of  the year as well.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The October employment report should  confirm the moderate pace of growth in employment recorded over the past  six months, marking a 110k increase in non-farm payrolls, in line with  the September reading (114k). New jobless claims were very volatile in  the month, but in the survey week they were only marginally higher than  in the corresponding week of September. Employment in the public sector  is expected to decrease, after rising in August and September, at both  the state and federal levels; at the state level, data were mostly  impacted by the education sector, where teacher cuts were lower than in  the 2008-2011 period, resulting in difficulties in the seasonal  adjustment process. Employment in the private sector should be up by  135k (approximately in line circa with the 2012 average of 145k). The  unemployment rate should climb back by one-tenth to 7.9%, after dropping  sharply in September (from 8.1% to 7.8%), with the participation rate  on the rise to 63.7% and, more importantly, a decrease in employment  recorded by the household survey. In September, this survey, typically  more volatile than the business survey, recorded an employment boom  (+873k), after averaging +173k between June 2011 and August 2012, and  151k since the beginning of the 2010. Hourly wages should be up by 0.2%  m\/m, in line with the average.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will be on the extraordinary Eurogroup meeting at the beginning of the week, and on the G-20 at the end of the week. The calendar of macro events includes the release of the initial estimate of 3Q GDP growth (in Spain), completion of the round of October confidence indices, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1144"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1144\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}