{"id":1145,"date":"2012-11-02T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-11-02T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/11\/02\/makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-november-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-11-02T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-11-02T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-november-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-5-9-november-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten:  5 &#8211; 9 November 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, focus will be on the ECB meeting, on the EU   Commission\u2019s autumn economic forecasts (and recommendations relating to   EDP), and on a possible informal Eurogroup meeting on Greece&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As regards economic data releases,  industrial output data will be published in the three main countries,  and should highlight a sharp correction in September in Italy and France  in particular, after the unexpected surge in August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The data calendar is rather quiet this  week in the United States. Market focus will be on the Presidential  elections, along with the renewal of all House seats and a third of  Senate seats. In October, the non-manufacturing ISM should drop  moderately, and import prices are estimated to be up by 0.2% m\/m. The  trade balance deficit is estimated to have increased in September with  both imports and exports on the rise.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 5 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The October non-manufacturing ISM is  estimated to be down to 53.5 from 55.1 in September. The September  survey was markedly positive, with both activity and orders improving  significantly (to 59.9 and 57.7, respectively), albeit accompanied by a  drop in theemployment index (to 51.1 from 53.8). The Richmond Fed\u2019s  October survey of the nonmanufacturing sector pointed to a weakening of  activity and revenues, with stagnant employment. October data could be  negatively impacted by the effects of hurricane Sandy in the closing  survey days.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 6 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second estimate of the October  services PMI should confirm the preliminary reading at 46.2 (little  changed compared to the previous month). The index remains at its lowest  levels since 2009, still not compatible with a recovery in value added  in the services sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consequently, the composite PMI could be revised slightly upwards to 45.9 (down two-tenths vs. September).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Producer prices in the euro area are  expected to have undergone no change in September, down sharply compared  to the rises seen in the previous two months. On a year-on-year basis,  the PPI would slow to 2.4%, after accelerating visibly to 2.7% in  August. Moderation in September is mostly explained by the energy  component.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Factory orders are expected to  fall again, albeit more slightly (-0.3%, in our estimate) in September  after crashing in August (-1.3% m\/m). The year-on-year trend should stay  in deep negative territory (-0.6% in our view).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The outcome of the Presidential election  is very uncertain, and polls point to a close match between the two  candidates. The outcome may even be so close as to prompt a recount in  some states, prolonging uncertainty. The republican majority is likely  to be confirmed in the House; at the Senate, the Democrats are slightly  more likely to retain a narrow majority: in any case, neither party  seems to be in the position to clinch the qualified majority needed to  fend off a minority-led filibustering. High chances of a split Congress  strongly curb the President\u2019s agenda-setting power. The stock markets  would in any case react much more positively to a Romney victory, as the  Republican platform provides for lower taxes than the Democrat\u2019s on  dividends, capital gains, estate, gift and high income.. On the other  hand, bond markets would react better to Obama\u2019s confirmation in office,  on expectations for greater continuity in monetary policy. However, the  main impact on the economy and on the markets in 2013 will be reaped by  the functioning of Congress and by its ability to reach a compromise to  carry out fiscal consolidation and tackle the debt limit, despite  political divisions and different preelection agendas.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 7 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales in the euro area are  expected to have dropped back down in September, by threetenths based on  our estimates, from +0.2% m\/m in August. The decline is mostly the  result of plunging sales in Spain (-7.3% m\/m) following the VAT hike,  whereas in Germany sales accelerated significantly (+1.5% m\/m). The drop  should not compromise a rebound in the Summer quarter, of +0.4% in our  estimation, vs. -0.6% q\/q in the Spring months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Industrial production is  expected to drop again in September (our estimate: -0.7% m\/m) after  declining -0.5% m\/m in August. Anyway the reading would translate into a  return of year-on-year growth into positive territory, albeit a  temporary one in our opinion. The surveys are consistent with a further  slowdown in manufacturing activity also in the euro area\u2019s leading  economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The EU Commission will release its  autumn economic forecasts, which should bring a substantial downward  revision in projected growth compared to the spring forecasts, for  peripheral countries in particular (sharp lowering of both the estimates  for 2012 and 2013 for Italy, and only for 2013 in Spain\u2019s case). The 1%  euro area GDP forecast for 2013 will also surely be revised. Within the  framework of the excessive deficit procedure, recommendations are  expected to be made to Spain, albeit without imposing further  consolidation measures in addition to those already included in the 2013  Budget.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The trade balance deficit should widen  in September to -45 billion dollars from -44.2 billion in August.  Exports are expected to recover, after contracting in August (total  exports -1% m\/m, &#8211; 1.6% m\/m for goods), but imports are forecast to grow  at a faster pace, driven in part by higher oil prices. Import prices  increased by 1.1% m\/m in September, with oil prices on the ruse by 4.6%  m\/m; export prices rose by 0.8% m\/m: agricultural goods +1.1% m\/m, food  +0.9% m\/m. Given a deficit in line with forecasts in September, the non  advance estimate of 3Q GDP should not change significantly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 8 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales in the euro area are  expected to have dropped back down in September, by threetenths based on  our estimates, from +0.2% m\/m in August. The decline is mostly the  result of plunging sales in Spain (-7.3% m\/m) following the VAT hike,  whereas in Germany sales accelerated significantly (+1.5% m\/m). The drop  should not compromise a rebound in the Summer quarter, of +0.4% in our  estimation, vs. -0.6% q\/q in the Spring months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Industrial production is  expected to drop again in September (our estimate: -0.7% m\/m) after  declining -0.5% m\/m in August. Anyway the reading would translate into a  return of year-on-year growth into positive territory, albeit a  temporary one in our opinion. The surveys are consistent with a further  slowdown in manufacturing activity also in the euro area\u2019s leading  economy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The EU Commission will release its  autumn economic forecasts, which should bring a substantial downward  revision in projected growth compared to the spring forecasts, for  peripheral countries in particular (sharp lowering of both the estimates  for 2012 and 2013 for Italy, and only for 2013 in Spain\u2019s case). The 1%  euro area GDP forecast for 2013 will also surely be revised. Within the  framework of the excessive deficit procedure, recommendations are  expected to be made to Spain, albeit without imposing further  consolidation measures in addition to those already included in the 2013  Budget.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Eurogroup of finance ministers may  hold another informal consultation on the Greece programme, before the  regular meeting of November 12th that is expected to approve the payment  of the next tranche of financial support. However, Juncker has stated  that the informal meeting will only take place if the documentation  becomes available in time. The situation remains unclear: the Greek  parliament is expected to vote on the budget measures and the structural  reforms only the day before the regular Eurogroup meeting, and one of  the parties in the governing coalition, ND, has already announced its  intention to vote against. While the two main coalition partners do have  enough votes to pass the bill despite the defection of ND, the margin  they enjoy is too narrow to be comfortable.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 9 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Inflation is expected to be  confirmed stable at 2% in October (harmonised rate of 2.1%). In the  month, prices should be confirmed flat on the national index, and on the  rise by one tenth in harmonised terms. In October, the downward thrust  lent by the energy component was balanced by price increases in the  services sector. Based on our scenario, German inflation should moderate  significantly already as of November.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Industrial output is expected to  turn back down in September, after the unexpected 1.5% rise in August  (in our opinion influenced by the month\u2019s typical volatility). We  estimate a -0.8% m\/m decline. Output in year-on-year terms would return  into moderately positive territory, from -0.4% in August, and would mark  the first quarterly increase in a year and a half. However, surveys  indicate that the improvement achieved over the summer months could  prove ephemeral.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italia. Industrial output is expected to  correct in September, after surging unexpectedly in August (+1.7% m\/m,  in our view influenced by seasonal adjustment issues). The decline in  the month could be as large as two percentage points. In year-on-year  terms, output would drop to -7.9%. In any case, output should prove to  have broadly stabilised in 3Q, interrupting the downtrend recorded  throughout the past year. However, there are signals that output may  drop back in the closing three months of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Import prices are estimated to have  risen in October by 0.2% m\/m, vs. +1.1% m\/m in September. Oil prices  dropped in last 10 days of the month, whereas the dollar stayed broadly  flat.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as surveyed by the  University of Michigan in November (preliminary) should improve  slightly, to 83, versus a final October reading of 82.6. In November,  confidence should return to levels in line with those recorded in early  October, following the trend of the other confidence indices, which are  stably higher than they were in 3Q. Households\u2019 confidence is being  supported by the recovery of the real estate market.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, focus will be on the ECB meeting, on the EU Commission\u2019s autumn economic forecasts (and recommendations relating to EDP), and on a possible informal Eurogroup meeting on Greece&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1145"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1145\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}