{"id":1157,"date":"2012-11-09T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-11-09T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/11\/09\/makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-november-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-11-09T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-11-09T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-november-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-12-16-november-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten:  12 &#8211; 16 November 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Preliminary 3Q GDP data is due out this week in the euro area. Economic   activity in the euro area is expected to have slowed by just one-tenth   over the Summer, in line with the average for the past year, compatible   with the confirmation of a \u201cmoderate\u201d recession path&#8230;&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The only major country to achieve  positive GDP growth will be Germany, whereas economic activity is  forecast to have remained stable in France, and to have further  contracted in Spain and Italy (in the latter country, however, the pace  of the contraction will be slower than in the first half of the year).  In any case, in all the main countries, and in the euro area as a whole,  a sharper slowdown in economic activity only seems to have been pushed  back to the present quarter. As regards the other data releases due, the  November ZEW survey could carry on its recent trend of easing pessimism  in terms of expectations, as opposed to a deterioration in views on the  current situation. Industrial output in the euro area will confirm the  crash recorded in all the major countries in September, and October  inflation should again be down by one-tenth, to 2.5%.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy calendar of data and events in  the United States next week. The first manufacturing sector surveys for  November will start to incorporate the effects of Hurricane Sandy, and  should show a deterioration. Retail sales are expected to have dropped  in October for the first time in three months, and industrial production  is estimated to have contracted. The October CPI and PPI should show  very moderate increases, for both the headline and core indices. The  minutes of the October FOMC meeting should contain openings to expand  QE3 once Operation Twist is over, and indicate that the debate is on  over changes in communication.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 13 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Germany. Expectations for the German  economy on a six-month horizon, as included in the ZEW survey, have  probably changed little in November (-11 from -11.5 in October), as  opposed to a further deterioration in the assessment of current  conditions (to 7.5 from 10 previously). The German economy is starting  to be tangibly affected by the slowdown in peripheral countries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 14 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Industrial output is expected to be  down by a hefty 2% m\/m in September, given the disastrous trends  recorded almost throughout the euro area (Germany -2.1%, France -2.7%,  Italy -1.5%, Spain +2.8%; particularly sharp decreases were recorded in  Portugal, -12% m\/m, and Ireland, -12.6%). Output should in any case  score a 0.4% q\/q rise in the summer months (first quarter of positive  growth in a year), given the sharp increases recorded in July and  August, although a decline is only postponed to the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; France. Consumer prices are expected to come in stable compared to  October, with  year-onyear inflation down by three-tenths to 1.6% at the  national level, and the harmonised  index on the decline to 1.8%. The  balance of risks to the forecasts is skewed to the downside. As in the  rest of the euro area, in the month downside pressures came from the  energy component, as opposed to seasonal price increases in other  sectors.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The October PPI is forecast to  increase by 0.2% m\/m; the core index should stay flat. The headline  index based on survey data collected in the first part of the month will  only record a stabilisation over the opening two weeks of October:  November data, on the other hand, will price in the correction of around  6% which occurred between 18 October and the first week of November.  The core index should feel some downside pressures tied to auto prices.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Retail sales should have stalled in  October, after growing at a good clip for three months (+1% m\/m on  average). Overall sales are expected to have dropped by -0.2% m\/m (the  first monthly decline since June); net of auto sales, retails sales are  estimated to have increased by 0.3% m\/m (vs. +1.1% m\/m in September).  Overall sales will mostly be conditioned by the auto sector decline  (dealership sales down to 14.2 million from 14.9 in September). Data  exauto will incorporate the effects of Hurricane Sandy: the food, health  care, and home ware segments will be inflated by pre-hurricane  provisioning, whereas in the other segments sales will be heavily  affected by the shut-down of activity for several days. November data  will also be impacted by the hurricane.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The minutes of the October FOMC  meeting will probably tell of intense debate over communication and the  expansion of QE3. Based on recent statements, it is clear that active  discussion is taking place on the option of tying stimulus to the level  of macroeconomic variables (unemployment), rather than to calendar  dates. However, for the time being there still seems to be no clear  consensus, and we believe both the minutes and the December meeting will  signal the intention to keep analysing the issue, while buying more  time. As regards QE3, some information could emerge on what the FOMC  intends to do in December, when Operation Twist (OT) will be over: we  expect purchases at the long end of the Treasuries curve, made within  the framework of OT, to be maintained, but financed through an outright  expansion of the Fed\u2019s balance sheet.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Thursday 15 November<br \/>Euro area<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; GDP growth in the euro area is  expected to have slowed by only one-tenth in the summer months, as  opposed to -0.2% q\/q in 2Q. The reading is in line with the average over  the past year, and keeps the euro area as a whole on a \u201cmoderate\u201d  recession path. However, the risk is that a sharper contraction could  materialise in the closing three months of the year. GDP is expected to  have dropped year-on-year to -0.6% y\/y in the summer quarter. The only  major country of the EA to achieve positive GDP growth will be Germany  (+0.2% in our estimation, from +0.3% in the summer quarter, resulting in  a two-tenth slowdown to 0.8% in year-onyear terms); however, Germany  too could suffer a slowdown in the present quarter. In France, GDP is  expected to have stayed stable in the summer quarter, given the  resilience shown by both consumption and industrial output; year-on-year  GDP is also expected to come in flat (vs. a previous rate of 0.3%). In  Spain, GDP growth should be in line with the preliminary reading of  -0.3% q\/q, -1.6% y\/y. In Italy, economic activity is expected to have  dropped at a slower pace than the -0.8% q\/q rate recorded in the first  half of the year; our estimate is -0.4% q\/q, in light of the  stabilisation (for the first time in a year) of value added in the  manufacturing sector, with a further negative contribution from services  (and the construction sector) nonetheless .<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Inflation should be confirmed at  2.5% y\/y in October, with prices on the rise by two-tenths in the month.  The trend net of the food and energy components is expected to prove  stable at 1.5% y\/y (with a marginal risk of a one-tenth increase). Based  on our central scenario, inflation will drop significantly in the  coming months, dropping below 2% already in the opening months of 2013.<\/div>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The headline and core CPIs should be  up by 0.1% m\/m in October. The headline index will be cooled by  stabilising gasoline prices, after the surges recorded in the two  previous months; however, as will also be the case with the PPI, most of  the correction of energy prices will be recorded by the PPI, November  price index. The modest change of the core index should be due to a  correction of auto prices and to a slowdown in the clothing and apparel  segment.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Airline tariffs will show a sharp  rise in September as well, although this will be a temporary  development, given the drop in the price of oil in October-November. In  year-on-year terms, inflation should stay at 2.2% y\/y in terms of the  headline index, and at 2% y\/y in terms of the core index.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The NY Fed\u2019s November Empire Index will be influenced by the effects of Hurricane Sandy.<br \/>Without  the hurricane, an improvement would have been on the cards following  the excessively negative level reached in October (-6.2), with a return  to just above zero. However, the devastation caused by the hurricane,  and its lasting consequences, will have a negative impact on the survey:  the forecast is for a further drop, to -8.5, with a decline in activity  and, possibly, a slowdown in orders, due to the slow return to normal  operations in many sectors and areas. The indications of the 6-month  forward-looking index could be more important this month, less  influenced by the temporary, albeit dramatic, effects of the hurricane.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The Philadelphia Fed index is  estimated to drop in November to -1 from 5.7 in October. The correlation  with the ISM would imply a correction of the index closer to 0, but the  expected change is amplified by the effects of Hurricane Sandy. Also,  the breakdown of October data was already less promising compared to the  improvement of the composite index, with new orders slipping back into  negative territory. October-November data will be hard to read due to  the impact of the hurricane, on top of already only just positive growth  in the manufacturing sector.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Friday 16 November<br \/>United States<\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Industrial output in October should  correct by -0.1% m\/m. In the manufacturing sector, work hours and the  slowing of activity in the automotive sector point to a change of zero.  The impact of the hurricane, while limited to the last two days of the  month, is expected to have negative effects on output in the utility  sector.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Preliminary 3Q GDP data is due out this week in the euro area. Economic activity in the euro area is expected to have slowed by just one-tenth over the Summer, in line with the average for the past year, compatible with the confirmation of a \u201cmoderate\u201d recession path&#8230;&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1157"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1157\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}