{"id":1159,"date":"2012-11-16T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-11-16T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/11\/16\/makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-november-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-11-16T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-11-16T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-november-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-19-23-november-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten:  19 &#8211; 23  November 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the main confidence indices referred to November will be released this week (PMI, IFO, INSEE, BNB)&#8230;&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Expectations are generally for a  stabilisation on levels still compatible with a contraction in  productive activity between the end of 2012 and early 2013. The  extraordinary Eurogroup meeting on 20 November will also be important:  the European authorities will be called to tackle more decisively the  issues still open on the Greek front, i.e. how to cover the country\u2019s  additional financial requirements and to restore debt to sustainable  levels (while a \u201cbridge\u201d solution at least until 2014 is expected for  the former, the issue of debt will probably remain unresolved). The  European Council meeting on 22-23 November should mostly focus on  community Budget issues. In Italy, approval is due of the Stability Law,  the original version of which, presented by the government, has been  extensively changed by the Parliamentary Committees.<\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Few economic data releases this week in  the United States. Housing starts and existing home sales should undergo  modest corrections in October, albeit without compromising the positive  trend of the residential construction sector. In November, consumer  confidence should remain on the relatively high levels recorded in  recent months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 19 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Orders and sales in the  industrial sector should be down in September, after rising sharply,  probably due to seasonal adjustment distortions, in August, in line with  output. We expect a &#8211; 2.5% decline in orders (from a previous rate of  +2.9% m\/m) -0.5% in sales (from -0.7% m\/m). The latest data all indicate  that economic activity in the industrial sector, after stabilising in  the summer, may slow again in the autumn months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Existing home sales should be little  changed in October, at 4.74 mln from 4.75 mln in September. Pending  sales rose sharply in August, and subsequently corrected modestly in  September. Existing home sales in September dropped by 1.7% m\/m, after  surging in August. The uptrend continues, however, at a moderate pace:  September and October simply corrected an excessively strong rate in  August.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 20 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. October producer prices could  moderate, thanks to slowing commodity prices. The PPI index could be  down by 0.1% in the month, after rising by 0.3% in September,  translating into a year-on-year slowdown to 1.5% from 1.7%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During the extraordinary Eurogroup  meeting, the European authorities should resume the discussion of two  issues still open on the Greek front: finding cover for the country\u2019s  increased financial requirements in 2013-2016, and defining a credible  path to restore public debt to sustainable levels. The pushing back of  fiscal objectives by two years (primary surplus of 4.5% in 2016 rather  than in 2014), deteriorating forecasts on income from privatisations,  and the downward revision of growth estimates, have led to an increase  in Greece\u2019s financial requirements between 2013 and 2016 (of around 32  billion euros), which currently lack cover.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Eurogroup could find a temporary  solution to finance cash requirements up to 2014: several hypotheses are  on the table, including a reduction of the interest rates applied to  the funds obtained through the international bailout programmes, and a  rescheduling of maturities. The second problem is evidence that, given  the current state of affairs, Greece will not be able to reach the debt  target of 120% of GDP in 2020. The Eurogroup is highly unlikely to find a  solution to this aspect. There is a disagreement on the issue of debt  sustainability between the European countries on the one side, willing  to push back in time the achievement of the 120% target, and the IMF,  favourable to restructuring the official debt (OSI) held by the Union\u2019s  Member States.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Housing starts should be down in  October, to 835k from 872k in September. The September increase (+110k)  should be reabsorbed in part in October, in any case leaving housing  starts on a positive trend, in line with their performance over the past  year. In September, a good portion of the monthly change was  concentrated in the multi-family segment, typically highly volatile.  Permits in October should be down, at 865k from 890k in September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 21 November<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The final vote on the Stability  Law is due at the House of Representatives. After the changes agreed on  following negotiations between the government and the main parties,  which have deeply changed the structure of the bill (abolishment of the  Irpef income tax rate cut, reduction of the VAT hike, and introduction  of an Irap tax cut as of 2014) at like-for-like balances (around 3  billion euros, i.e. fiscal consolidation easing worth two-tenths of GDP  in 2013, negligible effects on the following years), the approval  process in Parliament should be rather smooth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as surveyed by the  University of Michigan in November (final) should confirm the  preliminary reading\u2019s rise to 84.9.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 22 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The flash estimate of the composite PMI  index for November could recover only marginally, to 46 from 45.7 in  October (a low since June 2009). The recovery could be driven by the  manufacturing sector (45.9 from 45.4), after the drop in October,  whereas services should be little changed at 46.1. The level of PMI  indices remains compatible with a decline in productive activity between  the end of 2012 and the beginning of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The European Commission\u2019s preliminary  estimate of consumer confidence could come in at &#8211; 25.8 in November,  little changed compared to October and not far off the lows since 2009  hit in September. Households\u2019 sentiment is resilient in Germany, but may  have been affected in peripheral countries by the announcement of new  austerity measures. Confidence levels are still not compatible with a  recovery of consumption on a 3-6 month horizon.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The extraordinary Eurogroup Council  meeting should define the financial picture for 2014- 2020, setting a  spending ceiling for the Union. The task should prove to be a difficult  one, as the Council proposes a substantial cut (around 80 billion)  compared to the draft Budget set forth by the European Commission (1,033  billion euros). The difficulty in reaching an agreement lies in the  strongly diverging positions of countries such as the United Kingdom,  Sweden, Germany, and Holland on the one side, that call for substantial  spending cuts (to their benefit) to the detriment of countries such as  Italy (which would see its contribution unchanged as opposed to a  simultaneous reduction in the funds received), and France.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 23 November<\/strong><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The second estimate of 3Q GDP  data should confirm the preliminary reading, down by only one-tenth to  0.2% q\/q and 0.9% y\/y. We expect moderate growth, approximately in line  with GDP, for private consumption, public consumption, and investments,  and a rise of around 1% in exports and imports. In year-on-year terms,  as disclosed by the statistics office, positive contributions were made  by exports, private consumption and the construction sector, as opposed  to drags from corporate investments and inventories. Risks are that  economic activity may accentuate in the present quarter.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Business confidence as measured  by INSEE could score a marginal recovery in November, to 87, after  falling sharply and unexpectedly in October to 85, a level last seen in  the summer of 2009. A more convincing recovery of the index is hindered  by the weak economic context and by the anticipation of negative effects  of fiscal consolidation on corporate earnings. Confidence remains on  levels well below the long-term average (of around 100) and compatible  with a slowdown in productive activity in 4Q 2012, after the +0.2% q\/q  rise recorded in the summer months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The IFO index is forecast to  drop for the seventh month in a row in November. We expect an index of  99.4 from 100 in October, already below the long-term average (of  100.9). The decline could be sharper for the assessment of current  conditions (106.5 from 107.3 previously) than for expectations (in any  case down to 92.5 from 93.2). The IFO is pointing to a further slowdown  in productive activity in Germany in 4Q 2012, after the very slight  decline over the summer months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Belgium. The BNB index could drop again  in November, albeit less than in October. We estimate a reading of -13.8  from -13.5 last month. The October survey had registered a widespread  deterioration in confidence across sectors. Signals from the  manufacturing sector (considered as an anticipator of economic activity  in the euro area) are not compatible with a significant recovery.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the main confidence indices referred to November will be released this week (PMI, IFO, INSEE, BNB)&#8230;&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1159"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1159\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}