{"id":11598,"date":"2022-07-08T15:10:35","date_gmt":"2022-07-08T13:10:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/?p=11598"},"modified":"2022-07-08T15:13:00","modified_gmt":"2022-07-08T13:13:00","slug":"intesa-sanpaolo-the-ecb-and-rumours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/intesa-sanpaolo-the-ecb-and-rumours\/","title":{"rendered":"Intesa Sanpaolo: The ECB and rumours"},"content":{"rendered":"

Intesa Sanpaolo: There are rumours that the ECB <\/strong>is pressing for a faster repayment of TLTROs <\/strong>by banks, apparently over reputational concerns.<\/p>\n

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Weekly Economic Monitor – 8 July 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n

Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/strong><\/p>\n

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TLTROs could be becoming burdensome also for their potential inconsistency with the current monetary policy stance. However, any intervention will have to be cautious and circumscribed, given the risk of sparking tensions on the markets, and should be implemented only the new anti-fragmentation mechanism is in place.<\/p>\n

Fed: monetary policy has a single goal: curbing inflation <\/strong>. The minutes of the June FOMC meeting confirmed that monetary policy will be determined exclusively by the aim of bringing back inflation under control, even at risk of triggering negative effects on growth and the labour market. The Committee signalled that its monetary policy will be restrictive, and the level of restriction may increase further if inflationary pressures persist. Until the autumn, in our view inflation will not allow the Fed to lower its guard and restore the pace of the hike cycle to 25bps per meeting. Recession risks are growing.<\/p>\n

The week\u2019s market movers<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the euro area <\/strong>, industrial output is expected to increase for the second month in May, as suggested by already released national data. Still industry should act as a drag on GDP in Q2. In Germany, the ZEW survey should confirm downside risks to growth tied stemming from the challenging international context. Lastly, the finale estimate of April consumer prices data should confirm the advance reading, pointing to lower year-on-year inflation in Germany (8.2%), as opposed to a further increase in France (6.5%) and Italy (8.5%).<\/p>\n

This week, a host of important data releases are lined up in the United States <\/strong>. Focus will be on the June CPI, expected to show a further increase in headline inflation and persistently strong core index growth. The NY Fed\u2019s Empire survey for July should again be consistent with stagnant activity in the manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence in July could improve marginally in the wake of lower gasoline prices over the past few weeks, that should also allow a stabilisation of inflation expectations. Among June data releases, retail sales should recover, driven in part by prices, and industrial production is expected to increase modestly.<\/p>\n

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Appendix
\nAnalyst Certification<\/strong><\/span>
\nThe financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Important Disclosures<\/strong><\/span>
\nThis research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<\/span>
\nOpinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor.<\/span>
\nThis report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<\/span>
\nNo Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report.<\/span>
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\nIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<\/span>
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\n
\nValuation Methodology<\/strong><\/span>
\nTrading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<\/span>
\n
\nCoverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><\/span>
\nIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/span><\/p>\n

Source: BONDWorld<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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