{"id":1165,"date":"2012-11-23T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-11-23T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/11\/23\/makrooekonomische-daten-26-30-november-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-11-23T07:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-11-23T07:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-26-30-november-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-26-30-november-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten:  26 &#8211; 30  November 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the EU Commission\u2019s  survey and Italy business  confidence should confirm that economic  activity remains in mild  recession, and that for the time being there  are no signals of an  improvement in the short term&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inflation is expected to moderate  significantly in Germany, to 1.9%y\/y, from 2.1% previously, and to 2.4%  in the euro area, while staying stable in Italy at 2.8%. Euro area  unemployment should continue to move on a rising trend and may reach  11.7% in October, a new high since 1995. We see French consumption of  manufactured goods sliding in November. The second extraordinary meeting  of the Eurogroup could finally result in the unblocking of the tranche  of the bailout package for Greece, after the negative outcome of 20  November. German sales should drop 0.5% m\/m after the 0,8% rise in  September.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The week ahead will bring a host of  data releases in the United States. Data should generally prove only  moderately positive. The second estimate of 3Q GDP will be significantly  revised upwards, on the back of stronger net exports and inventories,  but the pace of growth will slow again by the end of the year. As  regards October data, orders of durable goods and new home sales are  estimated to have grown, whereas personal spending and income should  come in broadly flat. The Beige Book is not expected to change the view  that the labour market is still far off the \u201csustainable\u201d adjustment the  Fed is striving for.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 26 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. We look for a stable reading in  consumer confidence in November at 86.5, after the improvement recorded  in October. Sentiment remains at historically lows (long-term average:  104.9), depressed by negative news on the development of the macro  outlook. We expect a stable reading also for the current assessment (at  92) and for the forward looking component, at 76. The indications which  may come from the confidence index are compatible with an ongoing  contraction in consumption in the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Greece. Anticipation ahead of the  extraordinary Eurogroup, which could finally reach a decision on the  unblocking of the 31.5 billion euro tranche, as well as on the payment  of the September and December tranches, which would raise the funds  available to the country to 44 billion. Negotiations on how to fund  Greece\u2019s financial requirements in the 2013-2016 period, and on how to  restore the country\u2019s public debt to a sustainable path in the medium  term, came to a halt on Tuesday, 20 November, due to the need to analyse  in depth the solutions proposed to solve the fiscal issues on the table  (the options discussed include: a reduction of interest on loans issued  by Member States, the lengthening of maturities, and the establishment  of a 10 billion euro fund to repurchase debt on the market). In any  case, diverging views are evident among European Union countries, and  make the talks all the more complex.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 27 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Orders of durable goods in October are  estimated to have risen by 0.3% m\/m, driven once again by the civil  aviation component. As regards the reading net of transport, we forecast  a change of only 0.1% m\/m. The indications on orders provided by the  October ISM were positive, although the Philly Fed pointed to a  contraction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as surveyed by the  Conference Board in November should correct marginally, to 71.8 from  72.2 in October. The University of Michigan survey recorded a  contraction in the final November reading, as opposed to a preliminary  rate on the rise. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort confidence index is  sending mixed signals, with the current situation indicator on the  decline, and the forward looking component on the rise. Hurricane Sandy,  concerns tied to the fiscal cliff, and the stock market correction  should contribute to a drop in the confidence of households in the  coming month.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Fed will publish its Beige Book  ahead of the FOMC meeting of 11-12 December. The report should provide  indications on the effects of the hurricane Sandy, and signal widespread  stagnation in manufacturing sector activity, even in the states  unharmed by the storm. No changes compared to the previous months are  expected in terms of the labour market and prices. Therefore, the Beige  Book will probably not clear expectations for an expansion of QE3 at the  FOMC meeting on 12 December, to replace purchases within the framework  of  Operation Twist, that will expire at the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 28 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Annual M3 growth is estimated to  reaccelerate to 2.8%, after slowing last month (2.7%), therefore  returning to August level; the quarterly moving average should level off  at 2.8%. The trend of lending to the private sector should stay  negative, albeit less so than in September (when it contracted by 0.8%).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Inflation could ease by four  tenths in November, to 1.8% y\/y on the national index, and to 1.9%y\/y on  the harmonised measure. On the month, consumer prices should be down by  0.2% as pressures from the energy component, recede. Inflation should  drop by a further few tenths between now and year-end, and slow further  in the opening months of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">New home sales in October should be up  to 390k from 380k in September. October data will be affected by  opposite forces: the effects of hurricane Sandy should result in a drop  in sales in the North East of the country, while in the other regions  the uptrend should continue, also driven by the drop in mortgage rates,  which accompanied the opening of QE3. Homebuilders\u2019 confidence continued  to improve sharply. The inventory of unsold homes in 3Q 2012 averaged  4.6 months, in line with an ongoing construction activity, as  highlighted by the positive trend of housing starts.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 29 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The November unemployment rate  is expected to prove stable, after rising to 6.9% the previous month.  Monthly surveys suggest that unemployment may rise further in the months  ahead. The slowdown of the cycle could drive unemployment up to an  average rate of 7.2% next year, yet well below the levels reached in  2009 (8.1%).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. We expect business confidence to  move back to the lows hit over the summer (87.3), after recovering early  in the autumn. Therefore, confidence is still significantly lower than  the long-term average (100.4) and not far off the lows hit in 2009 (83).  These levels are compatible with a slowdown in economic activity at the  end of the year, in line with our estimates.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The European Commission\u2019s economic  sentiment index for the euro area should remain stable in November at  84.5, a low since 2009. Consumer confidence is expected to be in line  with the preliminary rate of -26.9, vs. -25.7 in October. Sentiment  among enterprises should edge back up in manufacturing (to -17 from  -18), while it may deteriorate further in services (to -13 from -12.1),  as indicated by the PMI flash estimate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second estimate of 3Q GDP should be  significantly revised upwards, from an advance rate of 2% q\/q ann. to  2.8% q\/q ann. The revision should be prompted by stronger data on  inventories and net exports, which should more than balance the expected  downward corrections of public spending and private consumption.  Foreign trade data and inventories released following the publication of  the advance estimate proved stronger than the forecasts for September,  on which the Bureau of Economic Analysis based its estimates. In  particular, exports should be up by 1.5% q\/q ann. against an advance  estimate of -1.4% q\/q ann.; imports should also be on the rise (vs. a  -0.2% q\/q ann. contraction of the advance estimate), although the  revision of exports will be stronger and will prevail on the estimated  contribution of net exports. An increase in inventories in 3Q 2012 would  have negative implications for growth in 4Q 2012, which should  experience a new slowdown in its expansion rate.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 30 November<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Consumer spending in October is  expected to contract moderately: after rebounding slightly in September,  by 0.1% m\/m, retail sales could drop by 0.3%, compressed by weakness in  the auto sector. The monthly contraction would translate into a decline  of -0.6% on the year and of -0.5% on the quarter. Consumption prospects  remain grim as income is set to suffer from deteriorating labour market  conditions and tighter fiscal policy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Spain. Unfavourable seasonal effects  could drive Spanish inflation to 3.6% y\/y in November, from a previous  rate of 3.5% y\/y. The harmonised rate is forecast at 3.7% y\/y, from 3.5%  y\/y in October. The trend of consumer prices is expected to moderate  only in 2013, and in particular from June onwards, w the effect of the  VAT hike on annual year-on-year data comparisons will start to wane. The  average annual inflation rate in Spain is estimated at 2.6% this year,  and should slow to 2.4% in 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The unemployment rate could rise  to 10.9% in October. On a quarterly basis, unemployment should rise to  10.8%, from a previous 10.6%. The deterioration in labour market  conditions follows what was essentially a stabilisation trend over the  summer, due in part to an increase in the number of inactive workers and  in part to a drop in employment numbers. Prospects for the labour  market remain negative: the unemployment rate could continue to rise  until the spring of 2013.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Retail sales should drop 0.5%  m\/m after the strong rise recorded in September. We expect German  consumer spending to remain in moderate expansion as real disposable  income should continue to grow at a good pace.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ascent of euro area unemployment is  set to continue and may hit 11.7% in October, marking a high since 1995.  The outlook for the labour market, in peripheral countries in  particular, points to a further deterioration in the first half of 2013.  We expect an average annual unemployment rate of 11.7% next year, up  from an estimated 11.3% in 2012.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inflation in the euro area should slow  to 2.4% in November, from a previous rate of 2.5%. Prices should be flat  on the month. Inflation, barring surprises from the energy components,  is estimated to drop below 2% by next February, and to average 1.8% next  year, from 2.5%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Inflation is forecast to rise to  2.7% y\/y at the national level in November, from 2.6% y\/y last month,  whereas the harmonised rate should come in stable at 2.8%. Consumer  prices are estimated to stay flat on the month. We expect inflation to  moderate by the year-end.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal spending in October should be  unchanged compared to the previous month. Retail sales contracted in  October (-0.3% m\/m), mostly due to the durable goods components, also as  a result of the effects of hurricane Sandy; spending on non-durable  goods, on the other hand, should be supported by the stocking up on  essential goods ahead of the storm.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal income is estimated to have  risen by 0.1% m\/m, based on the information included in the October  employment report, which showed a drop in wages and work hours, as  opposed to a relatively solid rise in the number of employed people  (+171k). The savings rate is forecast to rise marginally, to 3.4% from  3.3% in September. The consumption deflators (both overall and core) are  expected to be up by 0.1% m\/m. The core deflator would therefore  maintain its year-on&#8211;year trend of 1.7%; as regards the overall  deflator, the forecast annual change (1.8% y\/y from 1.7% y\/y) should  stay below the Fed\u2019s target of 2%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The November Chicago PMI should be down  to 49.6 from 49.9 in October. The index would therefore stay on levels  compatible with a stagnation of activity for the third month in a row.  All surveys highlighted the weakness of the orders component. The other  components of the survey should stay marginally higher than 50<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the EU Commission\u2019s survey and Italy business confidence should confirm that economic activity remains in mild recession, and that for the time being there are no signals of an improvement in the short term&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1165\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}