{"id":1170,"date":"2012-12-03T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-12-03T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/12\/03\/makrooekonomische-daten-03-07-dezember-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-12-03T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-12-03T09:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-03-07-dezember-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-03-07-dezember-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 03 &#8211; 07 Dezember 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Economic data releases in the euro area should confirm that the   recession will continue over the year turn. The final estimate of the   November composite PMI should confirm the preliminary reading of 45.8;   industrial output in Germany is expected to have recovered slightly in   October&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro  area retail sales will continue to drop in October. The second reading  of 3Q 2012 GDP growth in the euro area should confirm a 0.1% q\/q  contraction, and broken down data is expected to highlight that the  decline was largely due to a contraction in domestic demand.<\/div>\n<div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy  calendar of data releases in the United States next week The Employment  Report should show a slowdown in the employment trend, in part caused by  the effects of hurricane Sandy.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">November  ISM indices are estimated to be little changed and remain at levels  consistent with a modest expansion. Auto sales should rise in November  and make up the ground lost in October due to hurricane Sandy.<\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>Monday, 3 December <br \/>Euro area <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp;  The manufacturing PMI&nbsp; should be confirmed at 46.2, up more than  expected, from 45.7 in October, the lowest level since the autumn of  2009. Despite the November recovery, confidence remains at depressed  level and continue to signal a contraction of GDP also at the end of the  year, despite the improvement in financial market sentiment. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The&nbsp; Eurogroup of finance ministers convenes in Brussels. Do not expect  other decisions on Greece (the formal approval of the tranche is already  scheduled for December 13), nor on Cyprus (Cypriot Finance Minister has  mentioned as most probable the dates of December 12-13 for the approval  of the support programme). However, the meeting could start talking  about the possible improvement in financial conditions applied by EFSF  to the support programs for Portugal and Ireland. On Tuesday 4th&nbsp; an  Ecofin meeting is also scheduled.<\/div>\n<p><strong>United States <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp;  The manufacturing sector ISM is forecast to drop modestly to 51.2 in  November from 51.7 in October. Regional surveys were poor in November  and were below the levels implied by the historical relationship with  the ISM; November data collected in the North East of the country were  affected by hurricane Sandy, with a negative fallout on the output  component. <br \/>However, the preliminary Markit PMI recorded&nbsp; a new  increase. Data on orders in October pointed to a modest recovery of  activity in the manufacturing sector. &nbsp;<br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; Construction spending&nbsp; in  October is forecast to increase by 0.4% m\/m, from +0.6% m\/m in  September. The sharp increase in housing starts recorded over the past  few months indicates that construction in the residential segment may  have marked a new, material increase. The public and non-residential  segments, on the other hand, should stay in negative territory.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  Auto sales&nbsp; in November&nbsp; are expected to recover, to 15 million ann.  from 14.2 million in October. The October reading was negatively  affected by hurricane Sandy. Based on information made available by  dealerships, a partial recovery of the October drop in sales should  materialise in November, confirming the previous trend.<\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>Tuesday 4 December <br \/>Euro area <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp;  Producer prices in the euro area are expected to have dropped by one  tenth month-on-month in October, after rising by 0.2% in September. This  would translate into a 2.7% rise year-on-year. Moderation in October  should mostly be explained by the decline in the energy component, which  is expected to continue in the months ahead.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Wednesday, 5 December <br \/>Euro area <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp;  The second estimate of the November services PMI should confirm the  preliminary reading of 45.7, which surprised on the downside, slipping  from 46 in October. Sentiment in the sector plunged to a new low since  2009, pointing to the possibility of further weakness in services. <br \/>The&nbsp;  composite PMI&nbsp; should rise back marginally compared to October,  confirming the preliminary estimate (45.8 vs. 45.7 the previous month),  on the back of a recovery in manufacturing, that should balance a weaker  reading in the services sector. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; Retail sales in the euro area  will drop again in November, by -0.2%. although the pace of the decline  will be slower than the previous month (-0.8%m\/m). The drop at the  beginning of the autumn is expected to have&nbsp; been driven by a very weak&nbsp;  consumption trend&nbsp; in peripheral countries, and in Spain in particular.  Household spending will be penalised by the slowdown in disposable  income, impacted by lower employment levels and higher taxation.<\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>United States <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp;  Consensus expects the ADP estimate of non-farm payrolls in the private  sector to come in at 150k in November, from 158k in October.&nbsp; &nbsp;<br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The final estimate of productivity growth in 3Q 2012 should be revised  upwards to 2.8% q\/q from 1.9% q\/q, given the upward revision of the GDP.  Labour cost per unit of output should be revised downwards, to -0.9%  q\/q from -0.1% t\/t. <br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; The November&nbsp; non-manufacturing ISM&nbsp; is  forecast to be little changed, edging back to 54 from 54.2 in October.  The October survey had&nbsp; corrected the excessive rise recorded in  September. A stabilisation on levels close to September values would be  in line with the 3-momnth moving average, and would continue to support a  moderate uptrend from the lows hit in June.<\/div>\n<p><strong>Thursday, 6 December <br \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;&nbsp;  The detailed estimate of euro area GDP growth in 2Q 2012 should confirm  a -0.1%q\/q decline,&nbsp; and a year-on-year contraction of 0.6% y\/y.  Domestic demand is expected to be down by 0.5% q\/q, with foreign trade  making a positive contribution of 0.3%. In 2013,we believe growth will  continue to be driven by foreign demand, whereas domestic demand should  continue to contract, albeit at a slower pace (-0.8%) than in 2012  (-1.8%).<\/div>\n<p><strong>Friday, 7 December <br \/>Euro area <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp; <strong>Germany<\/strong>.&nbsp;  Industrial output&nbsp; in October is expected to have rebounded moderately  (+0.2% in the month), after contracting sharply in September (-1,8%). On  the year, industrial production is set to remain in negative territory  (-1.3%). Forward looking indices are compatible with persistently weak  industrial activity in the euro area\u2019s most important economy as well.<\/div>\n<p><strong>United States <\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;&nbsp; The November Employment Report is expected to show a slowdown in the employment trend. <br \/>Non-farm  payrolls&nbsp; should be up by 85k, from +171k in October. The number of  people employed in the manufacturing sector is estimated to have  declined due to the effects of hurricane Sandy. The unemployment rate  should be unchanged at 7.9%: risks to the estimate are skewed to the  downside due to the effects of the hurricane on the participation rate. <br \/>Hourly  wages are forecast to have risen by 0.2% m\/m. Data should be treated  with caution, given the transitory effects of hurricane Sandy, but are  expected to confirm a gradual rise in employment.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<br \/>&#8211;&nbsp; Consumer  confidence as surveyed by the University of Michigan in November  (preliminary) should improve modestly, to 83 from 82.7 in October.<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economic data releases in the euro area should confirm that the recession will continue over the year turn. The final estimate of the November composite PMI should confirm the preliminary reading of 45.8; industrial output in Germany is expected to have recovered slightly in October&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1170"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1170\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}