{"id":1178,"date":"2012-12-07T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-12-07T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/12\/07\/makrooekonomische-daten-10-14-dezember-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-12-07T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-12-07T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-10-14-dezember-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-10-14-dezember-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 10 &#8211; 14 Dezember 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This week in the euro area the first set of confidence surveys for the   month of December will be published (ZEW and PMI), and should prove less   pessimistic, also in the wake of easing tensions on the financial   markets&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The final estimate of inflation should  confirm a 2.5% decline in November, from 2.6% the previous month  (explained by a slackening of pressures from the energy component).  Industrial output in the area is expected to rebound marginally in  October after contracting sharply in September, although prospects for  productive activity point to a further weakening in the months ahead.  The second estimate of Italian GDP will highlight that the -0.2% q\/q  decline over the summer months was mostly tied to a drop in domestic  consumption, as opposed to a still positive contribution from net  exports. Wednesday\u2019s ECOFIN meeting will reopen talks on the Banking  Union, but there is no guarantee that progress will be made compared to  last Tuesday.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy calendar  of releases this week in the United States. November data should  generally prove weak. Consumer, producer, and import prices should be  driven down by a correction in the energy sector. Retail sales are  expected to drop, net of the auto component, whereas the transport item  should record a sharp rise. Industrial output is estimated to have  declined, hit by the effects of hurricane Sandy and by concerns over the  fiscal cliff. The trade balance deficit is expected to have widened  back in October, mostly due to a drop in exports, due to the activity  and transport shut-down caused by the hurricane. The FOMC meeting should  bring the introduction of a Treasuries purchase programme to replace  Operation Twist; as regards communication, a change to the guidance on  rates in early 2013 is expected to be preannounced.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 10 December<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>France<\/strong>.  Industrial output is expected to have slowed further in October, albeit  marginally, after the previous month\u2019s sharp contraction. The index  should decline by two tenths on the month (from -2.7% in September),  mostly driven down by weakness in the energy sector.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Manufacturing  output should prove broadly stable (-0.1% m\/m). In year-on-year terms  industrial output should be down by -2.4%, from -2.5% the previous  month. The weakness of the industrial sector, anticipated by confidence  indices, should continue into the opening months of 2013.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>. Industrial output is set to drop further in October (-0.5% vs. -1,5% m\/m in September).<br \/>Year-on-year,  output would show a recovery in unadjusted terms (a -4.3%), but be more  negative when adjusted by workdays (to -7.2%). In light of the negative  end to the previous quarter, and of the high probability of the  contraction continuing in the months ahead, the reading paves the way  for a new decline in industrial output this quarter, after stabilising  over the summer. Therefore, industry will once again represent a drag on  GDP growth in 4Q, after contributing positively to value added in the  summer months. This is compatible with our expectations for a new  acceleration in the pace of GDP contraction in the closing months of the  year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>. The  final estimate of 3Q 2012 GDP growth should confirm the -0.2% q\/q  preliminary reading, therefore showing a moderation in the pace of  contraction after the -0.7% q\/q dip in the spring. The second estimate  will provide important information on the trends of GDP components: our  forecasts are for an even sharper contraction in consumption and  investments (although the drop could prove to be smaller than in  previous quarters, for investments in particular), whereas net exports  should continue to contribute positively to growth. Forecasts for the  present quarter point to a new reacceleration in the contraction of GDP,  after the stabilisation seen in the summer months, as anticipated by  confidence indicators. Growth in 2012 as a whole should level off at  -2.1%, and our estimate is for a -1% decline in 2013.<br \/><strong><br \/>Tuesday 11 December<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The Ecofin will resume talks over the European Banking Union. Asmussen,  of the ECB, said that the pledge to complete the legal framework for  the Banking Union by the end of the year can no longer be met. There are  still significantly diverging views between the Germany and France. The  ministers of finance should also discuss an assistance plan for Cyprus.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>.  The confidence index drawn up by interviewing analysts and  institutional investors on the German economy (ZEW) could show a slight  improvement in December, due in part to easing concerns over sovereign  debt. Both the assessment of the current situation, and expectations for  the next six months could rise back after deteriorating in November,  returning to their previous levels: specifically, we expect the two  indices to improve respectively to 8 (from 5.4) and -8.5 (from -15.7).<br \/><strong><br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The October trade balance should show a deficit of 43 billion dollars,  from 41.5 billion in September. Exports should be down mostly a result  of the effects of hurricane Sandy on productive activity and on  transport. In the wake of hurricane Katrina the trade deficit widened  significantly: although Sandy was less devastating, the direction of the  trend should be similar. Also, imports had grown at a much sharper pace  than exports in September, also driven by price increases (0.8% m\/m):  in October, export prices were stable. As regards imports, a moderate  increase is expected, as a result of higher import prices (+0.5% m\/m).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 12 December<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Germany.<\/strong> The second reading of November inflation should be confirmed at 1.9%,  while the harmonised rate should level off at 2%, compared to 2% and  2.1% respectively in October.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">In  the month, the price index should therefore be down by 0.1% for both  measures. Energy price moderation is the main reason for contained  inflation, which should persist into the opening months of 2013.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Industrial output in the euro area is expected to rebound by two tenths  in October, after contracting sharply in September (-2.5% m\/m). In  year-on-year terms the decline would therefore deepen to -2.5%, from  -2.3% the previous month. The September drop was widespread, and led by  Ireland and Portugal (which recovered in part in October). Beyond the  expected rebound in October, industrial output should stay weak at the  close of the year.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>France<\/strong>.  Inflation is expected to moderate to 1.6% in November, from 1.9% the  previous month, with the consumer price index staying broadly unchanged  in the month. Harmonised inflation is estimated at 1.8% from 2.1% in  October (the harmonised index is also expected to come in flat  month-on-month). Inflation moderation is due to falling oil prices, and  should continue into the opening months of 2013.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Import prices in November should be down by -0.4% m\/m, marking the  first decline after three months of sharp increases. The drop should be  the result of a correction in oil prices.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The recent strengthening of the exchange rate should contain the price increase net of oil.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  At its meeting on 11-12 December, the FOMC is expected to announce a  new asset purchase programme in replacement of Operation Twist, due to  end this month. The Fed should purchase around 45 billion dollars a  month in Treasury bonds with maturities of between 6 and 30 years, until  the \u201cuntil labour market conditions improve substantially\u201d. Purchases  on the long end of the curve should therefore be kept at around 85  billion a month (with MBS purchases of 40 billion a month). The  statement, and most importantly Bernanke\u2019s press conference, should  signal that a change in communication is being prepared, establishing  inflation and unemployment thresholds as necessary conditions, albeit  not sufficient, to consider Fed Fund rate changes. In 2013, monetary  policy will continue to limit the effects of a restrictive fiscal policy<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 13 December<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Spain<\/strong>.  The November Inflation rate should confirm the preliminary reading at  3% for the national measure, and 2.9% for the harmonised, both on the  decline from 3.5% in October.<br \/>The first release surprised consensus  on the downside, as an expected unfavourable seasonal effect was smaller  than estimated. In the months ahead, inflation tensions will continue  to be fuelled by the effects of the VAT rate hike, although the trend is  expected to moderate in the second half of 2013.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>.  The second estimate of November inflation should come in at 2.5%, in  line with the preliminary rate, down from 2.6% in October, with a  0.2%drop in the consumer price index; harmonised inflation should also  be confirmed at 2.6% (from 2.8% the previous month), with the index on  the decline by 0.3% in the month. The drop in energy prices has guided  the moderation of inflation, which is expected to continue until the end  of the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The November PPI is  estimated to be down by -0.5% m\/m (1.7% y\/y), marking the second  consecutive monthly decline. The drop should be explained by the energy  component (-2.5% m\/m), driven down by the contraction in gasoline  prices, as opposed to a rather strong increase in food prices (+0.5%  m\/m). The core PPI should shoe a 0.1% m\/m increase (vs. &#8211; 0.2% m\/m in  October). In October, the core index had dropped on the back of auto  prices, as<br \/>a result of the prices of the new models introduced in the month: the November index should not be affected by special factors.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Retail sales in November should be up by 0.3% m\/m. Auto sales are  expected to prove very strong, back on the levels abandoned due to  hurricane Sandy in October: based on dealership data, volumes increased  by 8.7% m\/m in November. Retail sales net of the auto component are  expected to have dropped by -0.2% m\/m, with a correction of the gasoline  item as a result of lower prices.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 14 December<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The first estimate of December PMIs should bring an improvement, to  46.8 from 46.5 for the composite index. Reduced pessimism should be  recorded both by the manufacturing index (up to 46.6 from 46.2 in our  estimation) and the services PMI (to 47 from 46.7 in November).<br \/>Easing  tensions on the financial markets may have helped curb pessimism,  although the road to exiting the recession is still long.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Inflation in the euro area should be confirmed on the decline to 2.2%  y\/y in November, from a previous rate of 2.5%. In the month, consumer  prices are expected to be down by -0.2% m\/m. In our scenario, inflation  will fall significantly in the months ahead, dropping below 2% already  in the opening months of 2013.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The CPI is forecast to drop by -0.3% m\/m in November, compressed by lower gasoline prices.<br \/>The  expected change for the core index is 0.2% m\/m (2% y\/y). In November,  clothing and apparel prices should stabilise, after rising considerably  in October (+0.7% m\/m), as opposed to a slight increase in the auto  segment. As regards the shelter item, rents are expected to drop  somewhat, after their recent acceleration: the shelter component net of  energy should show a 0.2% m\/m increase.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Industrial output should be flat in November, after dropping by -0.4%  in October. The November reading will probably continue to feel the  effects of hurricane Sandy, with a modest correction in manufacturing  activity. However, the sharp rise in auto sales is expected to have  boosted activity in the sector, after the October slowdown, supporting  the overall change in the manufacturing component<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The   financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and   balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific   disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive   bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon   specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This   research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed  by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research  upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is  clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site  (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading   Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning   and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into   account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have   already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also   based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms   of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time   horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging   from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event   that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we   advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week in the euro area the first set of confidence surveys for the month of December will be published (ZEW and PMI), and should prove less pessimistic, also in the wake of easing tensions on the financial markets&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1178\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}