{"id":1184,"date":"2012-12-14T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-12-14T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/12\/14\/makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-dezember-2012-englisch\/"},"modified":"2012-12-14T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-12-14T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-dezember-2012-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-17-21-dezember-2012-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 17 &#8211; 21 Dezember 2012 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the IFO and the BNB index may slide in December whilst    the INSEE index will likely stay unchanged. National confidence   indices  are consistent with a mild technical recession over the year   turn in  core countries as well. Marginally more positive indications   should come  from households\u2019 confidence indices, expected to be on the   recovery in  the euro area and in Italy&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;.<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&#038;view=user&#038;Itemid=1023\"><strong> <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Busy calendar of data releases this week   in the United States. However, market focus will be on the talks over   the fiscal cliff: before Christmas, an agreement could be found to  allow  Congress to approve the necessary legislation to avoid the fiscal   cliff. The first December surveys should show stagnation of activity  in  the manufacturing sector. November data should be moderately  positive:  housing starts, permits, sales of existing homes, and retail  sales  should all be up; orders of durable goods, on the other hand,  should  show a correction. The third estimate of 3Q GDP del should be  revised  upwards once more, following the revision of foreign trade  figures.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 17 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The NY Fed\u2019s Empire index should   continue to recover at a modest pace in December, in line with October   and November, after plummeting in 3Q. We expect the index to rise back   to 1.5from -5.2 in November (-10.4 in September), based on an ISM   reading of 49.5 and on the waning negative effects of hurricane Sandy.   The November survey had restored orders and deliveries to positive   territory, although forward-looking indices stayed on lower levels than   in September and October. Indications from the manufacturing sector   remain weak in 4Q.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 19 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The December IFO business   confidence index could retrace the unexpected increase recorded in   November and slide back to a reading of 101, in line with long term   average. We look for a decline in the current conditions index to 107,8   from an earlier 108,1, whilst expectations should remain broadly   unchanged. As of late, the IFO index hovered at levels higher than the   German manufacturing PMI (which fell half a point in December), but is   still compatible nonetheless with a slowdown of the German economy at   the turn of the year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since August, the IFO averaged 101.3, as   opposed to 107.5 in the first seven months of the year. The gap  between  expectations and current situation, while showing some  improvement in  November, was still in territory compatible with a  technical recession  for the German economy over the year turn.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Housing starts in November are expected   to rise back to 900k from 894k in October. Employment data in the   construction sector in November weakened, but the trend of housing   starts is solid: therefore, we expect a stabilisation in November, but   not a retracement. Permits should keep increasing, to 880k from 868k in   October.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 20 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. Producer prices should fall   0,1% m\/m November (by -0.1%), on easing pressure from the energy   component. Inflation should slow by one tenth to 1.4% y\/y to the then   move sideways in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Belgium. The BNB confidence index may   prove little changed in December, at -13.9 from -13.4 in November, a   level significantly below long term average but well above the minim   touched in 2009 (-31.4).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The flash estimate should show euro area   consumer confidence rising slightly in December (to -25.5), from -26.9   last month, the lowest level since 2009. Morale would remain at very   depressed levels, justified by the deteriorating employment trend,   sub-par wage growth and, still restrictive financial conditions in euro   area countries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The third estimate of 3Q GDP should be   revised upwards to 3.0% q\/q ann. as a result of stronger contributions   from foreign trade and the construction sector. Growth will slow back in   4Q, also due to the fact that most of the change recorded in the  summer  quarter was due to inventory replenishment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The December Philadelphia Fed index   should show an improvement, rising back to -1 after crashing to -10.7 in   November. The November dive was due in part to Hurricane Sandy: the 6-   month expectations index was broadly flat in October and November, on   levels close to those recorded in 2Q. All the indications from the   manufacturing sector are weak, but we expect a gradual recovery starting   in early 2013, as uncertainty over the fiscal cliff clears somewhat.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Sales of existing homes are expected to   have risen rise to 4.9 million ann. in November, in the wake of  positive  data from the builders\u2019 survey and on pending home sales. This  latter  index surged in October.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 21 December<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. In December, the INSEE business   confidence index could stabilise at 88, a level reached in November   after hitting a string of lows for the period (since 2009) in the course   of the autumn. The index would still remain well below the long-term   average of 100. For the time being, there is no margin to foresee a more   convincing recovery as business sentiment is being dampened by both  the  weak economic environment and expectations for a negative fallout  on  corporate profits of fiscal tightening next year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. Consumer confidence may edge back   up in December to 85, after plunging in November to a long-term low of   84.8. The correction compared to the November slide is only marginal:   the survey was completed only days after the announcement of the  current  government\u2019s impending resignation, and this may have prevented  a  sharper rebound from the previous month\u2019s lows. The consumer  confidence  remains consistent with an on-going contraction in consumer  spending in  the months ahead.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Personal spending should be up in   November by 0.5% m\/m, driven by motor vehicle sales, which recovered in   the month the ground lost in October due to hurricane Sandy. Personal   income is expected to increase by 0.4% m\/m. The savings rate, on the   other hand, should drop further, to 3.3% from 3.4% in October.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Orders of durable goods are expected to   be down in November by 0.4% m\/m, from +0.5% m\/m in October, dragged  down  by the civil aviation component. Aircraft orders were  extraordinarily  strong in the previous months, and are now dropping  back to normal. Net  of the transport item, orders should be marginally  weaker (-0.2% m\/m),  after rebounding by +1.8% m\/m in October. The  orders component of the  ISM dropped in November to 50.3 from 54.2 in  October, after two positive  months which had pushed the index above the  50-point threshold, vs. an  average of 48 between June and August.  There are no indications of a  surge in orders.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Consumer confidence as surveyed by the   University of Michigan in December (final) should confirm the plunge   recorded by the preliminary survey. The sharp drop in the first December   survey, especially strong for expectations (-13 points to 64.6) should   be only marginally corrected: households are mostly concerned about   fiscal tightening in 2013.<\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the IFO and the BNB index may slide in December whilst the INSEE index will likely stay unchanged. National confidence indices are consistent with a mild technical recession over the year turn in core countries as well. Marginally more positive indications should come from households\u2019 confidence indices, expected to be on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1184","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1184"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1184\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1184"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1184"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1184"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}