{"id":1185,"date":"2012-12-21T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2012-12-21T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2012\/12\/21\/makrooekonomische-daten-27-dezember-11-januar-2013\/"},"modified":"2012-12-21T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2012-12-21T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-27-dezember-11-januar-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-27-dezember-11-januar-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 27 Dezember &#8211; 11 Januar 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the euro area, the calendar of macro data releases at the turn of the   year will most notably bring completion of the round of monthly  surveys  for December (EU Commission economic sentiment  index,&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..<strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <br \/><strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click  here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">and business confidence in Italy, which should confirm their recent  resilience, while staying on levels well below the long-term average),  and November industrial output in Germany and France (for which we  estimate a recovery, after the September-October plunge, albeit not to  the point of changing the weak trend of productive activity). No  particular surprises are expected to come from the M3 and the second  reading of PMI indices and inflation data.<br \/>Focus should rest mostly  on the ECB meeting of 10 January, where no action is expected to be  taken neither on non-standard measures nor on interest rates.<br \/>Data  due for release in the next few weeks in the United States should  confirm a moderate uptrend in employment, weak manufacturing, and a  positive trend in residential construction.<br \/>The solution of the  fiscal cliff and debt ceiling issues will represent an element of  discontinuity in data, with business confidence and activity probably  taking a positive turn in the opening months of 2013.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 27 December<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/><strong>&#8211; Italy<\/strong>.  Confidence among manufacturing companies as measured by Istat is  expected to prove stable in December, at 88.5, after recovering the  previous month. The index remains depressed, on levels well below the  long-term average (100.4). Broken down data in November showed an  improvement in expectations, as opposed to still contracting foreign<br \/>orders.  Indications of a reversal in the trend of foreign demand seem to point  to a gradual stabilisation of activity in the manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Consumer confidence in December should drop to 69 from 73.7 in  November. The University of Michigan index declined visibly in December,  and should be followed suit in the month by the other indices.  Confidence should return to levels in line with those seen early in the  autumn.<br \/>&#8211; Sales of new homes are expected to have risen in November to 390k from 368k in October.<br \/>The  sharp uptrend in the current and future sales components of the  builders\u2019 confidence index points to an acceleration in the pace of  growth of new home sales.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 28 December<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>France<\/strong>.  Consumption of manufactured goods is forecast stable in November, after  three months on the decline. The November figure should again outline a  contraction in auto sales, as opposed to a slight recovery for the  other components. If confirmed, the reading would leave the quarterly  trend on course for a +0.2% q\/q increase in December, in line with the  trend seen over the summer months. The figure points to 0.1% q\/q growth  in consumption at<br \/>the end of the year. The underlying trend for  French consumption is rather lacklustre, given the deterioration in  household confidence and worsening conditions on the labour market.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  In December, the Chicago PMI should rise to 51 from 50.4 in November.  The recovery of activity in the auto sector should continue, after  slowing briefly due to the effects of hurricane Sandy. Extraordinarily  strong auto sales in November should prompt an acceleration in  production in December as well, supporting a modest rebound of the  Chicago PMI.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Monday 31 December<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/><strong>&#8211; Germany<\/strong>.  Retail sales are forecast to recover by +0.4% m\/m in November, after  slipping sharply the previous month (-1.3% m\/m). The purchasing power of  households continues to improve, albeit at a slower pace than in the  first half of the year. The weak trend of consumer spending over the  summer months is probably explained by uncertainty on financial markets  and by the fact that households invested a significant share of their  income in the summer to<br \/>stock up on energy, given the favourable  prices. Based on vehicle registration data, auto sales remain weak. If  confirmed, the November sales figure would leave the quarterly trend on  course for a -1.0% q\/q drop, given the weak entry into the quarter.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 2 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The second estimate of the December manufacturing PMI should confirm  the preliminary reading of 46.3, broadly in line with the previous  month. Confidence indices remain compatible with a stabilisation of  industrial activity on depressed levels.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>. Data from  the Laender should outline higher consumer prices by +0.7% m\/m in  December, as a result of an unfavourable base effects. On an annual  basis, inflation should stay unchanged at 1.9% y\/y at the national  level, although the harmonised rate may temporarily rise back to 2.0%  y\/y. In 2013, German inflation is estimated to average 1.6%, from 2.1%  in 2012.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>Spain<\/strong>. The preliminary estimate should show that  inflation rose back to 3.2% y\/y in December, from 2.9% the previous  month, due to an unfavourable seasonal trend, offset only in part by the  negative contribution of energy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The  manufacturing sector ISM should stay broadly flat in December, at 49.7  from 49.5 in November. A modest recovery in orders and employment from  the compressed levels seen in December should help the composite index  re-approach the 50 mark. Based on our estimates, starting in January  avoidance of the fiscal cliff and a reacceleration in global growth,  especially in Asia, should contribute to a recovery in activity in the  manufacturing sector.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 3 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The trend of the M3 aggregate is expected to pick up further in  November, to +4.0% y\/y from 3.9% y\/y the previous month. More in detail,  we expect the M3-M2 aggregate to grow at a faster pace. The 3-month  moving average would therefore rise to 3.5% from 3.1%. Among M3  counterparts, we expect credit to the private sector to improve  slightly. The trend of M3 is still compatible with the ECB\u2019s price  stability objective.<br \/>&#8211; Germany. In December, the jobless figure could  rise by 25k, although the unemployment rate is forecast stable at 6.9%.  In the months ahead, the slowdown of the cycle, in the manufacturing  sector in particular over the summer and at the end of 2012, will have  an increasingly strong impact on the employment trend. We expect the  unemployment rate to<br \/>rise to 7.5% by the end of year, as it typically lags the cycle.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The minutes of the FOMC\u2019s December meeting should shed light on the  discussion on the expansion of the asset purchase programme, introduced  in December, providing a more picture of opinions within the FOMC  regarding the likely duration of the programme. We stick to our view  that purchases will be made throughout fiscal year 2013, at least until  October.<br \/>&#8211; Automobile sales in December should stay upbeat, showing a  modest decline to 15.2 million ann. from 15.46 million in November,  when sales surged by +8,7% m\/m following the slump caused by hurricane  Sandy. The trend of auto sales will stay positive in 2013.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 4 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The second estimate of the composite PMI should confirm the preliminary  reading of 46.5, from 45.7 the previous month. The services PMI  improved by seven tenths, to 46.7, on the back of greater optimism in  Germany, where the index returned above the 50-point threshold. The  synthetic index remains on levels compatible with a \u201clight recession\u201d in  euro area GDP at the turn of the year.<br \/>&#8211; Inflation is expected to  drop to 2.1% y\/y from a previous rate of 2.2%, thanks to easing  pressures from the energy component. Euro area inflation should drop  back below 2% already at the start of 2013.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>. Inflation  is estimated to decrease to 2.4% y\/y in December from 2.6% y\/y the  previous month in harmonised terms, as a result of easing pressures from  the energy component, and thanks to an only slightly unfavourable  seasonal effect. In the month, consumer prices are expected to grow by  +0.2%m\/m.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Non farm payrolls are  forecast to rise by in 165k December, from +146k in November. The  average for 2012, of 152k, would therefore stay in line with the levels  recorded over the past two years. The unemployment should rise back to  7.8% from 7.7% in November, as a result of the forecast increase in the  participation rate (that had dropped by two tenths in November). Hourly  wages should keep growing at a very slow pace, at +0.1% m\/m.<br \/>&#8211; The  non-manufacturing ISM should be down marginally in December, to 54.5  from 54.7 in November. The November survey was relatively positive, with  orders on the rise to 58.1 from 54.8, and activity up sharply to 61.2  from 55.4. Over the past few months, the services sector has  outperformed the manufacturing sector: in 2013, this situation should  reverse, as forecasts point to a more solid recovery for manufacturing.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday 8 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The economic sentiment index in the euro area is estimated to keep  recovering in December, to 85.9, from a previous level of 85.7. More in  detail, in line with the indications provided by national surveys and  PMIs, we expect confidence to improve in the services sector and, to a  lesser degree, in manufacturing. Sentiment among households should  improve a little more, to -25.9 from a previous reading of -26.9. The  Commission\u2019s index is still on values well below<br \/>the long-term  average, indicating that the euro area economy is still weak, although  the cycle should by now have stabilised on low levels.<br \/>&#8211; The  unemployment rate in the euro area could take a breather in November,  staying at 11.7% after the previous month\u2019s increase. In the months  ahead, the cycle will continue to weigh on employment prospects, and  unemployment may even rise to 12.2% by the end of 2013.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>Italy<\/strong>.  The unemployment rate could rise further in November, to 11.2%, despite  increasing over previous months. The cycle will continue to weigh on  employment prospects until 2013, and unemployment is expected to peak at  11.6% by the summer.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>. Factory orders in November  may reabsorb part of the unexpected improvement recorded the previous  month. We expect a 1.0% m\/m decline, which, if confirmed, would leave  the quarterly trend on course for a 1.9% q\/q rise at the end of 2012,  pointing to a recovery in industrial activity already at the outset of  the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday 9 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; <strong>Germany<\/strong>.  Industrial output should rebound by 1.0% m\/m and offset part of the  sharp contraction seen in October (-2.3% m\/m), which, however, may be  revised upwards. The reading would in any case leave output on course  for a 2.5% q\/q decline. Therefore, a contraction in German GDP by  0.2%-0.3% q\/q at the end of the year cannot be ruled out.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 10 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The ECB meeting should be rather interlocutory. In the past month,  economic data, and confidence surveys in particular, have pointed to a  stabilisation of the cycle at depressed levels. However, the  expectations component improved in Germany. Assessment of the macro  scenario should therefore be broadly unchanged compared to December. An  adjustment of the refi rate already in January is unlikely in our view.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>France<\/strong>.  Consumer prices are estimated to show a 0.3% m\/m rise. Inflation should  moderate to 1.4% y\/y, from a previous rate of 1.6% y\/y in harmonised  terms, and to 1.3% y\/y from 1.4% y\/y at the national level. Inflation in  France should stay broadly in line with November in the coming months,  after dropping temporarily to 1.2%-1.3%.<br \/>&#8211; <strong>France<\/strong>. Industrial  production is expected to increase by 0.1% m\/m in November, after  declining in October and September. Manufacturing output should grow by  0.2% m\/m, whereas energy could drop marginally after rising sharply in  early in the autumn. The reading would leave output on course for a  -1.9% q\/q contraction in the quarter, compatible with a 0.2% q\/q drop in  GDP at the end of 2012.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday 11 January<\/strong><br \/><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  In November, the trade balance deficit should decrease to -41.5 billion  dollars. The sharp drop in import prices in the month, and of oil  prices in particular, combined with a correction of export prices, in a  context of still weak global growth and stagnant manufacturing activity  in the US, should leave the trade balance on the downtrend outlined in  recent months.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The    financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and  roles   appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed  on   companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and    balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has  been   or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific    disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive    bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon    specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This    research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed   by  Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of  the   London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of  the   NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility  for   the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa  Sanpaolo   S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own  clients.   Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of  the Gruppo   Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. are both   authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated  by the Financial   Services Authority in the conduct of designated  investment business in   the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US  business.<br \/>Opinions and   estimates in this research are as at the  date of this material and are   subject to change without notice to the  recipient. Information and   opinions have been obtained from sources  believed to be reliable, but no   representation or warranty is made as  to their accuracy or  correctness.  Past performance is not a guarantee  of future results. The  investments  and strategies discussed in this  research may not be  suitable for all  investors. If you are in any  doubt you should consult  your investment  advisor. <br \/>This report has  been prepared solely for  information  purposes and is not intended as  an offer or solicitation  with respect to  the purchase or sale of any  financial products. It  should not be  regarded as a substitute for the  exercise of the  recipient\u2019s own  judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. or Banca IMI  S.p.A. entities  accept any liability whatsoever  for any direct,  consequential or  indirect loss arising from any use of  material  contained in this report.  <br \/>This document may only be  reproduced or  published together with the  name of Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca  IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. and Banca IMI  S.p.A. have in place a  Joint Conflicts Management  Policy for managing  effectively the  conflicts of interest which might  affect the  impartiality of all  investment research which is held out, or  where it  is reasonable for  the user to rely on the research, as being  an  impartial assessment of  the value or prospects of its subject matter.  A  copy of this Policy is  available to the recipient of this research   upon making a written  request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa  Sanpaolo  S.p.A., 90 Queen  Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. has  formalised a set  of principles and procedures for dealing  with  conflicts of interest  (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is   clearly explained in the  relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site   (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member  companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group,  or  their directors and\/or  representatives and\/or employees and\/or  members  of their households,  may have a long or short position in any  securities  mentioned at any  time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale,  or offer to  make a purchase  and\/or sale, of any of the securities  from time to time  in the open  market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo  S.p.A. issues and  circulates  research to Qualified Institutional  Investors in the USA only  through  Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park  Avenue, 35th floor, 10167  New  York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230.  Residents in Italy: This  document  is intended for distribution only to  professional investors as  defined  in art.31, Consob Regulation no.  11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a  printed  document and\/or in electronic  form. Person and residents in the  UK:  This document is not for  distribution in the United Kingdom to  persons  who would be defined as  private customers under rules of the  FSA.<br \/>US  persons: This document  is intended for distribution in the  United  States only to Qualified  Institutional Investors as defined in  Rule  144a of the Securities Act  of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a   transaction should do so  only by contacting a representative at Banca   IMI Securities Corp. in  the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading    Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning    and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into    account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have    already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also    based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms    of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas  may   refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a  precise   target or yield range or a yield spread between different  market curves   or different maturities on the same curve. The relative  valuations may   be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark  spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa    Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time    horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging    from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event    that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we    advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by  Intesa   Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of  valuation   methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is  available on   IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your  sales   representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, the calendar of macro data releases at the turn of the year will most notably bring completion of the round of monthly surveys for December (EU Commission economic sentiment index,&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1185\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}