{"id":1198,"date":"2013-01-11T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-01-11T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2013\/01\/11\/makrooekonomische-daten-14-18-januar-2013\/"},"modified":"2013-01-11T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2013-01-11T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-14-18-januar-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-14-18-januar-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 14 &#8211; 18 Januar 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">In the&nbsp; euro area, industrial production should be broadly unchanged in November, after&nbsp; declining by 1.4% m\/m the previous month. In Italy, output is expected to have dropped by&nbsp; 0.5% m\/m, less than in the two previous months. The first annual estimate of 2012 GDP in&nbsp; Germany will shed some light on the 4Q trend&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;<strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong> <strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><strong> <\/strong><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul><\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<br \/> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<hr style=\"text-align: justify;\" \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">&nbsp;The second estimate should confirm euro area&nbsp; inflation at 2.2% y\/y in December, with the trend of core inflation, i.e. net of energy and food&nbsp; prices, stable at 1.6% y\/y. The first indications on business confidence in January 2013 will be provided by the Bank of Belgium survey, which should outline a recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The host of economic data due for release in the United States should indicate a recovery in&nbsp; manufacturing and confirm the positive trend of residential construction, with inflation pressures&nbsp; at bay. The partial solution of the fiscal cliff issues will represent an element of discontinuity in&nbsp; data series, with a probably positive fallout on business confidence and activity in the opening&nbsp; months of 2013. The January Empire and Philly&nbsp; Fed indices, and December industrial output,&nbsp; should all be in positive territory. December housing starts and permits, and January&nbsp; homebuilders\u2019 confidence, should all be on the recent upward trends. The December CPI and PPI&nbsp; indices will reflect lower gasoline prices and the generally moderate trend of core prices.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">&nbsp;<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Monday 14 January <\/strong><\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Euro area. Industrial output is expected to have stayed stable in November, after decreasing by&nbsp; 1.4% m\/m the previous month. The reading would leave output on course for a 2.6% q\/q&nbsp; drop, from +0.6% q\/q, and signals a contraction in euro area GDP of 0.4% q\/q. December&nbsp; confidence surveys suggested a slight improvement in activity and demand conditions, which&nbsp; nonetheless are still at levels compatible with an extension of the recession into early 2013.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Italy. Industrial output will continue do drop in November (-0.5% m\/m) albeit at a slower pace&nbsp; than in the previous two months. Output adjusted for workdays should contract by 5.2% y\/y,&nbsp; from -6.2% y\/y. If confirmed, the November reading would leave output on course for a drop&nbsp; of around 2.0% q\/q in 4Q 2012, from -0.6% q\/q in the summer quarter, compatible with a&nbsp; sharper GDP contraction at the end of the year (-0.6% q\/q). The outlook for Italian industry is&nbsp; still challenging, with persistently tight financial conditions; however, foreign demand&nbsp; conditions recovered in December after declining for around five months in a row.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Tuesday 15 January<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Germany. The final estimate should confirm December inflation at 2.1% y\/y, for both the&nbsp; harmonised and national measures, on the rise from 1.9% the previous month. &nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Germany. The annual estimate of 2012 GDP should outline an 0.8% growth of the German&nbsp; economy, in line with a 0.35% contraction in GDP at the end of 2012. We expect the deficit&nbsp; to have closed at -0.2% of GDP.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">In&nbsp; Italy, inflation should be confirmed stable at 2.6% y\/y in harmonised terms, and on the&nbsp; decline to 2.4% y\/y from 2.5% y\/y at the national level.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The NY Fed\u2019s Empire index is expected to rise to +3 in January from -8.1 in December. Over&nbsp; the autumn the Empire dropped to levels well below those implied by the long-term&nbsp; relationship with the ISM. The difference between the two surveys may be amplified by&nbsp; Hurricane Sandy, the effects of which were concentrated in the NY area. Our forecast is for a&nbsp; recovery in the pace of growth of manufacturing activity, after a stagnant 4Q 2012. &nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Retail sales are expected to have improved by 0.4% m\/m in December, after +0.3% m\/m in&nbsp; November. Sales ex-autos should be up by 0.3% m\/m, after stagnating in November. Despite&nbsp; stable auto sales in December, retail sales should show an increase, and recover part of the&nbsp; November rise, incorporating a modest price effect. The drop in gasoline prices will weigh on&nbsp; aggregate sales (price effect), down for the second consecutive month. In November, the&nbsp; aggregate net of the gasoline and auto components had&nbsp; risen sharply (+0.7% m\/m), and a&nbsp; normalisation should follow in December. The sales trend remains moderately positive, in any&nbsp; case.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The December PPI is expected to be down by -0.2% m\/m, from -0.8% m\/m in November. The&nbsp; core index should show a 0.1% m\/m rise, in&nbsp; line with November. The expected drop of the&nbsp; headline index will reflect corrections in both energy and food prices. As regards food, the&nbsp; expected decline will not balance the sharp increase recorded in November (+1.3% m\/m);&nbsp; energy prices should be down by -0.8% m\/m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Wednesday 16 January<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Inflation in the euro area should be confirmed at 2.2% y\/y in December. Consumer prices are&nbsp; estimated to have risen by 0.3% m\/m in the month. Net of energy and fresh food prices,&nbsp; consumer price growth is expected at 0.5% m\/m, leaving the year-on-year rate unchanged at&nbsp; 1.6% y\/y. Inflation should drop back below the 2% mark in the opening months of this year.&nbsp; Risks to the medium-term trend are skewed to the downside, given the persisting slack in the&nbsp; economy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The December&nbsp; CPI is forecast stable, after a -0.3% m\/m drop in November. The core CPI&nbsp; should be 0.2% m\/m higher, beating the average increase for 2H 2012 (+0.1% m\/m). The&nbsp; headline index will reflect the third consecutive monthly drop in petrol prices. The core index&nbsp; should reaccelerate moderately, in the wake of price increases in clothing &amp; apparel and&nbsp; hotels rate, after weak readings in November. Rents will continue to grow at the sustained&nbsp; rates seen in the past year, while services (medical services especially) should rise only&nbsp; moderately. Year-on-year, the CPI is estimated to rise by 1.8% y\/y, as opposed to a stable core <\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">index at +1.9% y\/y.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Industrial output&nbsp; is expected to be up by 0.2%&nbsp; m\/m in December, from +1.1% m\/m in&nbsp; November. This relatively weak trend is due to the forecast correction in utilities. The&nbsp; manufacturing sector is expected to score&nbsp; a solid rebound, +0.4% m\/m. The December&nbsp; Employment Report highlighted a surge in employment numbers and working hours,&nbsp; although the brilliant performance was also due to the favourable comparison with the&nbsp; previous month, negatively impacted by Hurricane Sandy.&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Homebuilders\u2019 confidence&nbsp; (NAHB) in January should stabilise at 47, in line with December,&nbsp; after eight consecutive increases to levels last seen in April 2006. New home sales are lagging&nbsp; galloping builders\u2019 confidence: the gap between the two series should close as a result of an&nbsp; acceleration in sales and a slightly slower trend for builders\u2019 confidence. The trend in&nbsp; construction and sales remains unmistakeably positive for 2013.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The Fed will release its Beige Book in preparation of the end-of-January FOMC meeting. The&nbsp; report should outline a few signals of a recovery in manufacturing activity, and provide&nbsp; indications generally in line with the forecasts&nbsp; included in the Fed\u2019s outlook, for a moderate&nbsp; growth of the economy. The Beige Book could point to a modest improvement in labour&nbsp; market conditions in some sectors, with inflation pressures at bay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Thursday 17 January<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Housing starts in December are estimated to increase to 885k from 861k in November. Data&nbsp; on employment in the construction sector point to a rebound in housing starts after the&nbsp; November decline. Permits should correct after surging in November, dropping to 890k from&nbsp; 900k in November, reinstating the moderate uptrend recorded since 4Q 2011.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">The&nbsp; Philadelphia Fed index should be down in January to 6 from 8.1 in December. The&nbsp; December survey had marked a sharp rise (+18.8 vs. -10.7 in November). Orders and deliveries&nbsp; rose significantly in December and may trace&nbsp; back a little in January, while continuing to&nbsp; signal a return to growth, after persisting weakness during most of 2H 2012. Indicators on a&nbsp; six-month horizon, while staying comfortably positive, should also level off at intermediate&nbsp; levels between November and December (composite index at 30.9 in December from 20.5 on&nbsp; average between October and November).&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>Friday 18 January<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Consumer confidence&nbsp; as surveyed by the&nbsp; University of Michigan is estimated to show a&nbsp; modest rise in January (prel.) to 74 from 72.9 in December. The index plunged in December&nbsp; on fears of an agreement over the fiscal cliff not being reached, therefore in January&nbsp; confidence should normalise at broadly the same levels as in October-November, with no&nbsp; indication, for now, of resuming an uptrend.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the&nbsp; euro area, industrial production should be broadly unchanged in November, after&nbsp; declining by 1.4% m\/m the previous month. In Italy, output is expected to have dropped by&nbsp; 0.5% m\/m, less than in the two previous months. The first annual estimate of 2012 GDP in&nbsp; Germany will shed some light on the 4Q trend&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1198\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}