{"id":1203,"date":"2013-02-18T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-02-18T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2013\/02\/18\/makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-februar-2013\/"},"modified":"2013-02-18T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2013-02-18T09:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-februar-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-februar-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 18 &#8211; 22 Februar 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif;\">In the euro area, ZEW and IFO confidence indices, the BNB survey in Belgium, and the second&nbsp; estimate of the composite PMI should confirm the stabilisation of the cycle on still depressed&nbsp; levels, albeit slightly better than at the end of 2012. <\/span><\/span>&#8230;..<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul><\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\">Sign up for our free newsletter to receive weekly news from BONDWorld<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"> <a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=107\"><strong>Click here to register for your free copy<\/strong><\/a><a href=\"index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;view=user&amp;Itemid=1023\"><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><\/span> <\/p>\n<p>Broken down German GDP data will prove&nbsp; that the stronger than expected contraction in 4Q 2012 was due to slower exports, and&nbsp; probably to weaker domestic demand. French inflation is estimated to come in stable at 1.3%&nbsp; y\/y at the national level, whereas a one-tenth rise in the harmonised rate to 1.6% y\/y cannot be&nbsp; ruled out. <br \/>Busy calendar of data releases in the United States next week. The CPI and PPI should show very&nbsp; modest increases in January. Housing starts are expected to correct in January, after rising&nbsp; strongly in December, while confirming the uptrend observed since mid-2011; existing home&nbsp; sales should also drop modestly, without changing the positive outlook of the sector. The&nbsp; minutes of the January FOMC meeting should signal that purchases are likely to continue for the&nbsp; better part of the year. <br \/>&nbsp;<br \/><strong>Monday, 18 February<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong> <br \/>Markets closed for Presidents\u2019 Day.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tuesday, 19 February <\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Germany. The&nbsp; ZEW index may take a breather in February, after recovering a standard&nbsp; deviation in the two previous months. The expectations index could stabilise at 30.5 from&nbsp; 31.5. The current situation index may recover further ground, to 9 from a previous reading of&nbsp; 7.1, still below last October\u2019s level.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong> <br \/>The NAHB&nbsp; builders\u2019 confidence index should rise to 48 in February, after pausing at 47 in&nbsp; January, signalling a resumption of the uptrend in new home sales following a few months of&nbsp; uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Wednesday, 20 February <\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Germany. Producer prices could be up by only 0.1% m\/m, as a result of lower energy prices in&nbsp; euros, which should offset positive seasonal effects. Year-on-year, inflation is expected to slow&nbsp; to 1.2% y\/y, from 1.5% y\/y the previous month.<\/p>\n<p>Germany. Inflation should be confirmed at 1.9% y\/y, from a previous rate of 2.0% y\/y both in&nbsp; terms of the harmonised index and of the national index. In the month, consumer prices&nbsp; dropped by 0.7% m\/m in harmonised terms, and by 0.5% m\/m at the national level, due to&nbsp; negative seasonal effects and to moderating energy prices in euros. In January, the national&nbsp; index was indexed at 100 in 2008 and should be made public with the second estimate. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>France. Inflation is forecast to stay put at 1.3% y\/y at the national level, but could rise back by&nbsp; one-tenth to 1.6% y\/y in terms of the harmonised rate. Consumer prices are expected to be&nbsp; down by 0.3% m\/m. Energy prices are estimated to have increased in January, contributing&nbsp; positively to the CPI trend, based on the survey of petrol prices.<\/p>\n<p>France. The INSEE index of confidence among manufacturing companies is forecast at 88, up&nbsp; from 86 in January. The previous month it had slowed sharply mostly on the back of views on&nbsp; current production, with a downward revision of expectations for the following three months,&nbsp; given the drop in foreign orders. In light of signals of a recovery in world trade, and of&nbsp; improved confidence among German companies (in the past three months), we expect&nbsp; confidence in France to return to at least the same levels seen last November, in any case&nbsp; lower than in the first seven months of 2012.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In January, housing starts are estimated to have decreased to 940k from 954k in December,&nbsp; when the figure surged, especially in the volatile multi-family home segment. Building permits&nbsp; should be up to 920k from 909k in December. The trend in residential construction is still&nbsp; clearly up, and should bring an acceleration in the pace of growth compared to 2012, in line&nbsp; with the indications provided by the builders\u2019 confidence survey, currently consistent with&nbsp; housing starts close to 1.4 million ann. The reduction in the stock of unsold existing homes,&nbsp; and low mortgage rates, support forecasts for&nbsp; a pick-up in housings starts in the months&nbsp; ahead.<\/p>\n<p>The January&nbsp; PPI&nbsp; is expected to show a 0.5% m\/m rise, after three consecutive monthly&nbsp; declines in the autumn of 2012. The increase is largely due to the oil component, but also to&nbsp; food prices. The core index should post a limited increase of 0.2% m\/m, only slightly higher&nbsp; than the +0.1% m\/m December rate. The price components of the manufacturing sector&nbsp; surveys point to a modest reacceleration in inflation upstream of the production process in the&nbsp; months ahead. The depreciation of the dollar, and the increase in the price of oil, will fuel&nbsp; upside pressures on production prices.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed will publish the minutes of the January FOMC meeting. The minutes should shed light&nbsp; on the debate opened in December on the expected duration of the purchase programme,&nbsp; and on potential changes in communication, aimed at improving transparency on the FOMC\u2019s&nbsp; reaction capacity.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday, 21 February <\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The composite PMI&nbsp; should confirm a recovery in January, to 48.6 from a previous reading of&nbsp; 47.2. The manufacturing PMI rose last month to 47.9 from 46.1, and we cannot rule out a slight&nbsp; decline in the wake of the French index. We estimate the services index to be confirmed at 48.6,&nbsp; from 47.8 the previous month. While on the recovery compared to the autumn, the PMI indices&nbsp; remain compatible with a slight contraction in euro area GDP also at the beginning of 2013,&nbsp; after the drop recorded at the end of 2012.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong> <br \/>The January CPI is expected to be up by 0.1% m\/m, with the core index on the rise by 0.2%&nbsp; m\/m. January should bring a sizeable drop in the price of gasoline, due to the seasonal&nbsp; correction; this should result in the fourth consecutive decline in the energy component. As&nbsp; regards the core index, a modest reacceleration in the shelter component is expected, to&nbsp; +0.2% m\/m (from 0.1% m\/m in December), due to higher hotel rates. In year-on-year terms,&nbsp; the core index is estimated to rise by 1.8% y\/y, marginally less than the 1.9% y\/y readings of&nbsp; November and December.<\/p>\n<p>The&nbsp; Philadelphia Fed index in February is forecast to rise to 3.5 from -5.8 in January. The&nbsp; January survey was negative, both in terms of the overall index and of the breakdown, with&nbsp; the orders component in particular returning into negative territory. The manufacturing sector&nbsp; ISM marked two consecutive increases and levelled off at 53.1 in January, improving&nbsp; significantly from 49.9 in November. We expect the regional surveys to recover, after&nbsp; underperforming the national index for several months, confirming the expansion of activity in&nbsp; the sector, and its acceleration in the course of the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Friday, 22 February <\/strong><br \/><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Germany. The IFO index is forecast to prove stable in February at 104.2, after recovering in the&nbsp; two previous months. We expect&nbsp; the current situation index to come in stable at 108.2, after&nbsp; rising back over the long-term average (101.2) in the past two months, although a slight&nbsp; retracement is possible, given the indications of a sharp drop in foreign orders highlighted by the&nbsp; Belgian survey last month. The expectations component could rise to 100.6 from 100.5, in the&nbsp; wake of positive signals from global demand; the&nbsp; index would in any case stay broadly in line&nbsp; with the long-term average (100.5). The recovery of the German economy will be gradual, and&nbsp; lacking January data on industrial output and\/or exports, it is hard to tell whether GDP will be&nbsp; able to return into neutral territory after the weak end to 2012.<\/p>\n<p>Germany. The detailed estimate of&nbsp; 4Q 2012 GDP should confirm a 0.6% q\/q decline, with&nbsp; growth slowing by -0.4% y\/y vs. a previous rate of 0.9% y\/y. The slowdown of the German&nbsp; economy is probably due to a drop in exports, which we estimate to have left the contribution of&nbsp; foreign trade at -0.3%. Domestic demand should also be down by 0.1% q\/q due to a&nbsp; contraction in spending on machinery (-2.1% q\/q) and a slowdown in consumer spending (flat in&nbsp; the quarter). The 0.6% q\/q contraction at the end of 2012 is still compatible with an average&nbsp; annual growth rate of +0.7%, but the weak end of the year has left our estimate for 2013 at&nbsp; +0.4%, assuming GDP resumes growing by 0.1% q\/q in 1Q 2013, as suggested by monthly <br \/>surveys.<\/p>\n<p>Belgium. After the January decline, we expect the BNB index to recover this month, to -11.8, still&nbsp; well below its long-term average. More in detail, we expect sentiment to brighten in&nbsp; manufacturing, after last month\u2019s sharp contraction in foreign orders. <br \/>Italy. After collapsing in January, consumer confidence could rebound marginally in February, to&nbsp; 85 in our estimate, not far from the record-low hit last month (84.6). Depressed assessments on&nbsp; the family financial situation and unemployment expectations will continue to weigh on&nbsp; households\u2019 morale.<\/p>\n<p><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Existing home sales should be down in January to 4.90 million from 4.94 in December, in light&nbsp; of poor pending home sales figures in December. A correction in January would not alter the&nbsp; uptrend in sales, which we expect to continue in the quarters ahead.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><strong>Appendix<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><strong>Analyst Certification<\/strong><\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\">The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\"><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\">This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\">Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\">This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: small;\">No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name<\/span> of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\"><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><\/span><br \/><span style=\"font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;\">Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representati<\/span>ve.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the euro area, ZEW and IFO confidence indices, the BNB survey in Belgium, and the second&nbsp; estimate of the composite PMI should confirm the stabilisation of the cycle on still depressed&nbsp; levels, albeit slightly better than at the end of 2012. &#8230;..<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3466,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1203","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1203"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1203\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1203"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1203"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1203"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}