{"id":1254,"date":"2013-04-19T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-04-19T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2013\/04\/19\/makrooekonomische-daten-22-26-april-2013\/"},"modified":"2013-04-19T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2013-04-19T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-22-26-april-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-22-26-april-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 22 – 26 April 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the euro area, monthly surveys for April should outline a broadly unchanged picture, or slightly brighter, compared to March, when indices shed part of the gains scored over the previous three months………<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>……<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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The IFO index is forecast at 107, from 106.7. The composite PMI should come in at 47.4, from previous index of 46.5. The INSEE confidence index is expected to rise to 91. Households\u2019 confidence should recover slightly in Italy and France in March. The trend of the M3 aggregate is estimated to have slowed further in March, to 2.9% from 3.1% in February.<\/p>\n

A number of important data releases are due this week in the United States, which in any case should not alter the picture of solid growth at the outset of the year, followed by a slowdown in 2Q 2013. New and existing home sales are estimated to have slowed in March, while keeping up their positive trend. Orders of durable goods in March are expected to decline in the wake of the correction of the volatile civil aviation component. GDP growth in 1Q 2013 should accelerate sharply, to 3.2% q\/q ann., after staying close-to-stagnant at the end of 2012.<\/p>\n

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Monday 22 April<\/strong>
United States<\/strong>
– Sales of existing homes in March are forecast to drop modestly to 4.97 million ann. from 4.98 million in February. Pending sales were volatile in recent months: down in February, up sharply in January, and with corrections in November-December. The trend remains positive, but less upbeat than it was last autumn.<\/p>\n

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Tuesday 23 April<\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong>
– Euro area<\/strong>. The composite PMI should recover slightly in April, to 47.4 from 46.5 previously, staying below the February reading. The manufacturing index is expected to return to 47.7 from 46.8, just short of the February reading. The services PMI is forecasted at 47.1 from a previous index of 46.4. We consider deteriorating sentiment in March a hiatus, tied in part to the Cypriot crisis. The indices would in any case stay at depressed levels, still compatible with a
slight recession in the euro area.
– France<\/strong>. The INSEE confidence index is forecasted to rise to 91, after stagnating for two months at 90. These are still depressed levels, consistent with continued stagnation in the manufacturing sector in April. We expect a slight recovery in expectations for the months ahead.
– Italy<\/strong>. Households\u2019 confidence is estimated broadly stable at 85.4, from 85.2 the previous month, still at very depressed levels due to the uncertain political and economic outlook. The slight recovery in April is explained by lower inflation and a partial easing of tensions on the financial markets.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

United States<\/strong>
– Sales of new homes in March are expected to show a decline to 395k, from 411k in February and 431k in January. In the past three months, the builders\u2019 confidence index and the pending sales component dropped from the peak levels reached in December, pointing to a weakening of the recent trend. Similar indications are provided by the trend of licenses and housing starts in the single-family unit segment. March data in the real estate sector, as is also the case for most other releases, are pointing to a slower pace of economic recovery compared to the flying start observed at the beginning of the year. However, activity expansion remains solid and the residential construction sector will make an increasingly positive contribution to aggregate demand.<\/p>\n

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Wednesday 24 April<\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong>
– Germany<\/strong>. In April, the IFO index should rise back to 107, half way between the February (107.4) and March (106.7) readings. More in detail, we expect a recovery in the expectations component to 104.1, after the one-point decline in March to 103.6. Views on the current situation should be back to February levels, at 110.2 form 109.9 in March. The IFO index recovered more than the PMI index. In our view, the German economy may have resumed growing (+0.2% q\/q), and barring surprises on the global demand side, should accelerate already in 2Q 2013.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

United States<\/strong>
– Orders of durable goods in March are expected to decline by -2.8% m\/m, from +5.6% m\/m in February. Net of the transport component, orders are estimated to increase by 0.7% m\/m, after a negative reading in February (-0.5% m\/m). The orders component of the ISM, down to 51.4 from 57.8, points to a slowing of the trend. The drop in overall orders should be the result of an expected correction in the transport segment. In light of the trend of the Boeing order book, the civil aviation segment should incur a sharp slowdown, after having performed very well in February; in the automotive sector, orders should show positive growth, also in light of solid industrial output in February. The component of capital goods orders in the defence sector will probably prove negative, after rising sharply in February (+72.6% m\/m) and due to the enforcement of the automatic cuts to public spending.<\/p>\n

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Thursday 25 April<\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong>
– Spain.<\/strong> The unemployment rate should come in at 26.4% in 1Q 2013. Data on registered unemployed workers pointed to a further rise in unemployment in the past three months.<\/p>\n

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Friday 26 April<\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong>
– Euro area<\/strong>. The trend of the M3 aggregate could slow further in March, to 2.9% from 3.1%, in part due to base effects, but also to a slowdown of the M3-M2 aggregate. The moving average is estimated to drop to 3.2% from 3.3%. Among M3 counterparts, lending to the private sector could show a contraction.
– France<\/strong>. Households\u2019 confidence could rise back marginally from 83.5 in March to 85.0, almost in line with February. The index remains on historically very depressed levels. The pessimism of households is explained by deteriorating labour market conditions and future income prospects.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

United States<\/strong>
– The initial estimate of 1Q GDP growth should show a sharp acceleration, to +3.2% q\/q ann. from +0.8% q\/q ann. in 4Q 2012. Once again, private demand will improve, with positive indications for all components. Consumer spending will be an important item in fuelling the pace of growth: we forecast a +3.1% q\/q ann. rise in personal spending, from 1.8% q\/q ann. in 4Q 2012. The reading is especially significant when considering that it coincides with the enforcement of the sharp tax hikes introduced by the \u201cfiscal cliff\u201d package. The other main driver in 1Q were inventories, which had represented a serious drag at the end of 2012.<\/p>\n

Inventories had deducted 1.5% from growth in 4Q 2012, and should contribute positively to the 1Q trend, by around 1 pp. As regards net exports, after a decline in 4Q 2012 for both imports and exports (albeit positive in terms of net contribution to growth), a rebound in foreign trade is expected at the beginning of 2013, although the net contribution to growth should be modestly negative.<\/p>\n

– Fixed investments, both residential and non-residential, are forecast to grow at a more moderate pace than the double-digit rates recorded at the end of 2012. Lastly, public spending should contract moderately (-0.7% q\/q) from -7% q\/q ann. in 4Q 2012. On the whole, data should not bring particular changes to the existing scenario: good start to 2013, followed by a likely slowdown in 2Q 2013.<\/p>\n

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Japan<\/strong>
– The BoJ meeting is not expected to bring monetary policy changes, but will coincide with the disclosure of the bi-yearly macroeconomic outlook. The outlook should outline a path for inflation towards 2% by 2015.<\/p>\n

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Appendix<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n

Analyst Certification<\/strong><\/span>
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Important Disclosures<\/strong><\/span>
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<\/span>
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <\/span>
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<\/span>
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <\/span>
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name<\/span> of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<\/span>
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<\/span>
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<\/span>
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <\/span>

Valuation Methodology<\/strong><\/span>
Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<\/span>

Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><\/span>
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representati<\/span>ve.<\/p>\n

Source: ETFWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n

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