{"id":1267,"date":"2013-05-06T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-05-06T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2013\/05\/06\/makrooekonomische-daten-06-10-mai-2013\/"},"modified":"2013-05-06T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2013-05-06T09:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-06-10-mai-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-06-10-mai-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten: 06 – 10 Mai 2013"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the euro area, March industrial output data will shed some light on the state of health of the  economy. We expect output to drop slightly in France and Italy, and to stagnate in Germany. On  the whole, industrial output in the opening months of 2013 recovered compared to the end of  last year, but indications from surveys point to a slowdown early in the Spring….<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>……<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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This will be a very quiet week in terms of economic data releases and events in the  United  States. The only new developments will come from the release of labour flow data, which the  Fed has added to the variables to be monitored in assessing the evolution of the labour market  scenario.
 
Monday 6 May <\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n

The second estimate  of the composite PMI  could bring an upward revision to 46.6 from a  preliminary index of 46.5, as the PMI manufacturing was upgraded by two tenths; on the  contrary, there are downside risks on the PMI services as the EU Commission\u2019s survey outlined  a weaker trend in April. In our view, the slowdown in business confidence in March and April  will prove temporary, as it reflects a hiatus in the ongoing recovery of domestic demand.<\/p>\n

Retail sales are expected to drop slightly in March: -0.2% m\/m, from -0.3% m\/m the previous  month. Sales were down in Germany and Spain, but rose by 0.7% m\/m in France. The March  rate, if confirmed, would leave sales growth  at +0.1% q\/q in 1Q 2013, from -1.5% q\/q.  Beyond quarterly volatility, the underlying trend of consumption remains weak, due to labour  market conditions and to sluggish nominal wages growth.<\/p>\n

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Tuesday 7 May <\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n

France Industrial output  is forecast down by 0.2% m\/m in March, from +0.7% m\/m in  February. Manufacturing sector output should prove stagnant, after increasing by +0.8% m\/m  the previous month. The production of energy is expected to drop by 1.4%m\/m, after rising in  the two previous months. The March drop would confirm output at -0.2% q\/q from -2.6%  q\/q at the end of 2012. Thanks to the positive contribution of the energy component,  industrial output should remain unchanged on average, after declining by -1.9% q\/q in 4Q  2012. Therefore, industry\u2019s contribution to GDP growth is estimated to have been zero,  however, sentiment surveys point to a slowdown in value added in the services sector,  therefore we expect GDP to contract by -0.2% q\/q, following a -0.3% q\/q rate at the end of  2012. The INSEE survey highlighted a slowdown in the manufacturing sector in April, and we  do not rule out a further drop in GDP in the Spring. The average French GDP growth rate in  the year is forecast at -0.1%.<\/p>\n

Germany. Orders of manufactured goods are forecast to increase further in March, albeit at a  slower pace in (+0.6% m\/m) than in February (+2.3% m\/m). Up to March, the IFO and PMI  surveys outlined an improvement in the orders trend. Given the weak start to the year, orders  should be down by -0.1% q\/q in 1Q 2013, after rising by +1.0% q\/q in December 2012. April  surveys detected a slowdown in demand.<\/p>\n

United States<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release March data on \u201cJob Openings and Labour  Turnover\u201d (JOLTs). The data provide a monthly update on openings, hirings and separations  (layoffs and quits). The Fed has indicated that it considers these data an important integration  of the contents of the employment report. The February JOLT report recorded an increase in  openings, to levels in line with May 2008 (+11.3% from February 2012, and +8.7% vs.  January 2013), with indications consistent with a likely acceleration in hirings in the following  months. March data may outline a retreat due to the reductions in positions tied to Defence
Department contracts and related to the public spending cuts.     <\/p>\n

The House Energy subcommittee will discuss US policy on energy exports: this is an important  topic for the future trends of the oil and natural gas markets, as well as for economic growth  at large. In the months ahead Congress will have to express its views on the possibility to  export crude energy commodities; a report published in the autumn had given a favourable  opinion on the export of oil and natural gas, blocked for now for reasons of national interest.  Congress\u2019s decisions on this front will be crucial, not only for the development of the energy  sector, but also for economic growth and for the evolution of the trade deficit in the medium  term.<\/p>\n

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Wednesday 8 May <\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong>
Germany.  Industrial output  is seen unchanged in March, after rising by +0.5% m\/m in  February. In the quarter, output should be lower by -0.1% q\/q, marking a recovery from – 2.6% q\/q at the end of 2012. Therefore industry is estimated to have made a zero  contribution to GDP growth. We expect an acceleration in value added in the services sector,  as the services PMI and IFO indices in the opening three months of this year recovered  significantly compared to the previous two quarter. The construction component trend is still  clouded with uncertainty, as it may have been held back by adverse weather conditions. On  the whole, we stick to our forecast for +0.1% q\/q growth in German GDP at the beginning of  2013, from -0.6% q\/q in 4Q 2012 (first estimate due out on 15 May).<\/p>\n

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Friday 10 May <\/strong>
Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n

Industrial output  could drop again in March, by -0.3% m\/m in our estimation, from – 0.8% m\/m in February. In year-on-year terms, output would worsen to -10.3% in unadjusted  terms, and to -7.5% adjusted by working days (one less in March than in the same month last  year). As a result, the distance from the pre-crisis peak in activity (April 2008) would be – 24.2%. In any case, output would close 1Q 2013  showing a stabilisation (-0.1% q\/q), after  crashing (-2.2% q\/q) at the end of 2012. However, a further decline in the present quarter is  more than likely, as the forward-looking indices available so far do not point to an exit from  recession in the months ahead.<\/p>\n

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Appendix<\/strong><\/span><\/div>\n

Analyst Certification<\/strong><\/span>
The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Important Disclosures<\/strong><\/span>
This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<\/span>
Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <\/span>
This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<\/span>
No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <\/span>
This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name<\/span> of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<\/span>
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<\/span>
Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<\/span>
US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <\/span>

Valuation Methodology<\/strong><\/span>
Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<\/span>

Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><\/span>
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representati<\/span>ve.<\/p>\n

Source: ETFWorld – Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n

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