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\nWeekly Economic Monitor – 21 October 2022<\/strong><\/p>\nIntesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/strong><\/p>\n
\nThe line of the accelerated rate <\/strong>hike continues to prevail, which will rise by 75bp<\/strong> on 27 October and then by at least another 50 basis points in December. Next week may also bring news on the TLTRO front<\/strong>.<\/p>\nThe week\u2019s market movers<\/strong><\/p>\nThis week in the euro area <\/strong>focus will be on the ECB monetary policy meeting, on the October HICP data and on confidence surveys. The initial set of national accounts data for the third quarter of 2022, will also be released: the economy is estimated to have contracted in Germany, as opposed to only marginal growth in France and Belgium, and stagnation in Spain. The PMI surveys, as well as the German IFO and Italian Istat surveys, are expected to confirm a contraction of economic activity between the summer and the autumn. In October, inflation is forecast to rise further and to cross the 10% mark both in Italy and in Germany. The European Commission will present its reform proposal on the Stability and Growth Pact.<\/p>\nThis week in the United States <\/strong>the initial estimate of 3Q GDP will be released, and should mark a return to positive growth after two negative quarters, with foreign trade contributing strongly and final domestic demand showing a moderate improvement. October data releases will include consumer confidence, expected weaker as a result of higher gasoline prices, and the Markit flash PMIs, that should signal a slowdown in manufacturing as opposed to a stronger services sector. September spending and personal income are forecast stronger, and the core deflator should be up by 0.5% m\/m. Also in September, new home sales are expected to have dropped sharply, as opposed to stronger orders, driven by civil aircraft.<\/p>\n
\nAppendix
\nAnalyst Certification<\/strong><\/span>
\nThe financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/span><\/p>\nImportant Disclosures<\/strong><\/span>
\nThis research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d’Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<\/span>
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\nThis report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<\/span>
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\nIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<\/span>
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\nValuation Methodology<\/strong><\/span>
\nTrading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<\/span>
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\nCoverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><\/span>
\nIntesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/span><\/p>\nSource: BONDWorld<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Intesa Sanpaolo: For the third time in a row, the ECB is letting statements by national central bank governors guide market expectations ahead of its monetary policy meeting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":5307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[50],"tags":[121],"class_list":["post-12849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-weekly-analysis","tag-intesa-sanpaolo"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12849"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12849\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12860,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12849\/revisions\/12860"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}