{"id":649,"date":"2011-03-18T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-03-18T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/03\/18\/makrooekonomische-daten-21-25-maerz-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-03-18T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-03-18T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-21-25-maerz-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-21-25-maerz-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 21-25 M\u00e4rz 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Due out in the Euro area are the March economic surveys: the indicators   (IFO, INSEE, BNB, EU Commission) should show confidence stabilising at   historically high levels. .<span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span>..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<p> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  M3 figures should confirm that the  growth in the monetary and lending  aggregates, though recovering, is  still well short of \u201cnormal\u201d levels. <br \/> The data in the United States should not alter the economic picture.   February durable goods orders should be up, confirming the positive   trend in the manufacturing sector. Sales of new and existing homes in   February should remain in the range seen in the last six months.   Consumer confidence should rise in March. The third revision to 4Q10 GDP   should be slightly positive. <\/p>\n<p> <strong>Monday 21 March <br \/> United States <\/strong><br \/> &#8211;  Existing home sales are expected to fall to 5.0M units ann. in   February, from 5.36M before, after three months of gains. The recent   pending home sales figures recorded two consecutive falls and signal a   likely correction in actual existing home sales. The sector shows no   signs of starting an uptrend, and the recent hike in mortgage rates   (reflected in a contraction in new loan demand) lends weight to   expectations of ongoing weakness in the residential real estate sector. <\/p>\n<p> <strong>Wednesday 23 March <br \/> Euro area <\/strong><br \/> &#8211;  The index of consumer confidence compiled by the EU Commission might   remain steady at -10 in March, slightly above the long-term mean   calculated since 1985 (-12). The improvement in sentiment seen in   Greece, Spain and Portugal in January and February might not continue;   and in any case the gap between the centre and the periphery should   remain very wide. <br \/> However, confidence in the core countries and  notably Germany is still  set fair (according to the GfK survey, in  March sentiment improved  further to its highest level since October  2007). <br \/> &#8211;  The  Bank of Belgium confidence index might be little  changed in  March at 5.5 vs. 5.8 in february. The index, seen as a  predictor of the  industrial cycle in Germany (the main outlet market  for Belgian  manufacturers), is not far off all-time highs in the over  30 years of  the series. <br \/> United States <br \/> &#8211;  New home sales  are  expected to rise to 295k in February, from 284k  in January. The  homebuilders survey signalled a modest rise in  the  current and future  sales indices. Sales should nonetheless remain in the  280-325k range  seen in the last seven months. <\/p>\n<p> <strong>Thursday 24 March <br \/> Euro area <\/strong><br \/> &#8211;  <strong>France<\/strong>.  Manufacturing business confidence might be unchanged  at 106 in March.  The sub-index of new orders, still very negative at  -17, might improve.  The view of production plans is expected to improve  slightly, but  should still fall short of the January level. Price  expectations might  rise further to their highest level since April 2008.  In general, the  index lies close to the pre-crisis highs and the latest  industrial  production data (up +1.1% mom in January) appear <br \/> to signal that the cycle in industry is robust.<\/p>\n<p> &#8211;  <strong>Italy<\/strong>.  Consumer confidence might be little changed in March,  at 106.2 from  106.4 in February. The index would still be below the  average recorded  since 1982 (112.5). Concerns over unemployment, which  fell sharply last  month, might start building again; confidence might  also be dented by  the rise in inflation expectations. <br \/> &#8211;  The PMI composite index for  the Euro area might ease to 57.9 in March  from 58.2 before (its highest  since June 2006). This would mark the  first (slight) fall in the last  five months. The dip in sentiment should  be due to a somewhat less  bullish view both in manufacturing (estimated  at 58.6 from 59, its  highest in almost 11 years) and in services (56.6  from 56.8). The  composite index would thus remain extremely   expansionary, actually  pointing to a marked <br \/> acceleration in GDP (in the area 1% qoq).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><br \/> &#8211;  Durable goods orders are expected to be up 1% mom, after +3.2% mom  in  January. Orders ex transportation should bounce by +2.6%  mom after   falling by -3% mom in January. <br \/> Transportation made a positive  contribution in past months and should  hold back the overall dynamic in  February. The weak January figures ex  transportation might have been  affected by the weather: the indications  from the ISM (orders at  January 2004 highs) imply a positive and robust  trend in orders. <\/p>\n<p> <strong>Friday 25 March <br \/> Euro area <\/strong><br \/> &#8211;  In February, the M3 growth rate might accelerate to 1.8% yoy after   unexpectedly slowing to 1.5% yoy in January. The three-month moving   average would remain steady at 1.7% yoy. <br \/> Loans to the private  sector might accelerate  further to 2.6 from 2.4%  yoy: the uptrend in  household loans should firm (3.1% yoy in January),  while business loans  should retain a year-on-year growth rate only  slightly above zero  (0.4% yoy in January).  <br \/> &#8211;  <strong>Germany<\/strong>. The IFO index should be  steady at 111.2 in March,  sticking at highs in the 20 years of the  series. Expectations might slip  by few tenths to 107.6 from 107.9,  while the view of the present  situation should remain steady at 114.7,  just a few tenths below the  all-time recorded in December 2006. The  level of the IFO index would be  consistent with a year-on-year  acceleration of 5% in German GDP.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States <\/strong><br \/>&#8211;   The  final estimate of 4Q10 GDP should involve a modest upward revision  to  +2.9% qoq ann., from the previous estimate of 2.8% qoq ann.,  in  the  wake of more robust inventories and investments in structures.   <br \/>&#8211;    Household confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan in March   (final) should rise above the advance estimate, climbing to 71 from   68.1, thus making up only some of the ground lost between February and   early March (from 77.5 in February to 68.1 mid-March). Of great    importance are inflation expectations which in mid-March jumped to 3.2%   from 2.9% in January and February on a five year time horizon and to   4.6% from 3.4% in the previous two months on a one-year horizon. The   trend in the oil price remains upward and will keep pressure on   expectations until it factors in the moderate downturn in the oil price   seen in the last few days.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. 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The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Due out in the Euro area are the March economic surveys: the indicators (IFO, INSEE, BNB, EU Commission) should show confidence stabilising at historically high levels. . ..&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=649"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/649\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=649"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=649"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=649"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}