{"id":656,"date":"2011-03-25T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-03-25T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/03\/25\/makrooekonomische-daten-28-01-april-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-03-25T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-03-25T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-28-01-april-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-28-01-april-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 28-01 April 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In the Euro area, the EU Commission and Italian business confidence surveys are expected to be<\/span> down slightly in March, whilst remaining expansionary. The  month-on-month trend in consumer prices should accelerate sharply in  March <span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span>..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<p>given the spike in fuel prices. However, thanks to a<span lang=\"EN-GB\"> favourable base effect, inflation is expected to rise by just one-tenth  to 2.4% yoy in Germany, to remain steady in Italy at 2.1% yoy, and to  fall in the Euro area. The unemployment rate should remain steady at  historically high levels in the Euro area (9.9%) and Italy (8.6%), but  it should fall to 7.2% in Germany, confirming the gap in labour market  performance.<\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is packed with important data in the United States. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  manufacturing surveys should confirm the signs of expansion. The March  employment report should indicate a further acceleration in employment  growth and stabilisation of the unemployment rate.<\/span>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Household confidence might correct in March, while auto sales are expected to remain very<\/span> strong. Construction spending should be up in February after slipping in January.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 28 March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Personal  spending is expected to be up by 0.8% mom in February, and the January  data should be revised up in light of the revisions published with the  February retail sales numbers. Auto sales expanded sharply in February  and prices rose by 0.5% mom in the sector (but by +1% mom for new cars,  after two negative figures). Durable goods should be up 0.6-0.7%, while  non-durables, driven by petrol prices, should make a substantial  contribution to the growth in nominal terms. The service sector dynamic  was negative in January and might havebeen affected by the bad weather: a  recovery is expected in February. Personal income should slow after  expanding by 1% mom in January, due to the reduction in contributions  implemented by the budget at year-end 2010. Without this effect, income  should be back on an uptrend, growing by 0.4% mom. The core consumption  deflator should be up 0.2% mom: healthcare in the CPI recorded a solid  gain in February (+0.4% mom), and has a dominant weight within the  deflator. The trend deflator should continue its uptrend, climbing to  0.9% yoy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 29 March<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy.  The business confidence index might correct slightly in March, falling  to 102.5 from 103.0. A further improvement is possible in demand-side  conditions, although they would still be very negative and well below  the trend signalled by the data on factory orders in Italy. Price  expectations should rise. In general, the indicator should be confirmed  at historically high levels (avg. since 1991: 100.8) and the  deterioration in sentiment should not be seen as marking a reversal in  Italy\u2019s economic recovery.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Germany. Consumer prices should rise by 0.7% mom in March on the steep hike in fuel prices (+7.8% mom). <\/span>Inflation will rise to 2.4% yoy in March from 2.1% yoy before. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Inflation  should peak in April and stick around 2.3% until September, barring  further energy-derived pressures and assuming no second-round effects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Consumer  confidence as measured by the Conference Board should fall to 65 in  March from 70.4 in February. The Univ. of Michigan March preliminary  survey recorded a substantial fall, confirmed by the weekly confidence  survey. The fall should be more pronounced in expectations than in the  view of the present situation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 30 March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  index of economic confidence compiled by the EU Commission is expected  to slip to 107.5 in March from 107.8 before (highest since September  2007). Confidence in industry returned to the long-term mean at the  start of this year (6 in February) after two years of gains and it might  have paused in March. By contrast, the mood in services might improve  to 11.5 from 11.1, given the usual lag in the cycle vs. manufacturing.  The flash estimate showing a slight deterioration in consumer confidence  to -11 from -10 in February should be confirmed. The breakdown by  region might show an ongoing divergent trend between core and peripheral  countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the private sector is put by the Bloomberg consensus at 210k, vs. 217k in February.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 31 March<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The unemployment rate might fall by a further tenth to 7.2% in March. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">This  would mark a new low since 1991. The jobless total should fall by 24k,  after the drastic fall seen the previous month (-52k). Thus, the  outstanding performance of the German labour market should continue  thanks both to the policy reforms and Germany\u2019s economic recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Consumer  prices in the Euro area are expected to be up 1.0% mom in March vs.  0.4% mom before, but inflation is expected to ease to 2.3% yoy on a  benign base effect. The rise in inflation is again due to oil and  commodity price volatility. The underlying dynamic is under control for  now and is expected to slow further in March, easing to 1.0% yoy from  1.1% yoy before, although it should rise again in April. Core inflation  is however expected to come in below 2% again in 2012, since the  second-round effects are negligible. Nonetheless, signs are emerging  that upstream pressures might feed through downstream, generating a more  widespread increase in the inflation dynamic and in medium-term  expectations<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy.  Consumer prices on the national measure should be up 0.4% mom in March  from 0.3% mom before, and inflation should stick at 2.4%. On the  harmonised measure prices are expected to be up 1.4% mom and inflation  should be steady at 2.1% yoy. The largest monthon- month gain is  expected in energy, on the back of the spike in the oil price, while  substantial increases are also expected in transportation. Core  inflation should stick at 2%. Inflation should gravitate around the  current levels in the months ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  Chicago PMI should ease slightly to 70.5 in March from 71.2 in  February. The auto sector continues to record growth in sales,  production and orders, lending support to activity in the Chicago  district. The activity index in February stood at its highest level  since year-end 1988 and the breakdown was generally positive.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 1 April<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy. The unemployment rate will remain steady (8.6%) at its 2004 highs in February. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  quarterly data should signal growth in unemployment at year-end 2010 to  8.6% from 8.3% before. In general, the labour market in Italy is  struggling to pick up, as signalled last month by the inactivity rate  and youth unemployment at seven-year highs. Only in the second half of  the year might a gradual improvement in the labour market get under way.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">The unemployment rate in the Euro area is expected to be steady at 9.9% in February. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  gap between the peripheral and core countries will remain broad,  notably with Germany, where the unemployment rate fell again in February  to 1991 lows. The economic surveys and notably the PMI job-index signal  a reversal in the labour market in the coming months. <\/span>United States<span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  March employment report should show private payrolls growth similar to  that seen in February, with non-farm private sector jobs up 230k (222k  in February), and plus 200k in the non-farm sector as a whole. The  unemployment rate should be unchanged at 8.9% as in February. The  employment component of the sector surveys would be consistent with even  greater jobs growth than expected for March and unemployment benefits  are in line with an improving employment dynamic. The public sector  should continue to shed jobs due to the fiscal tightening at state and  local level. Hourly wages should be up 0.2% mom and the zero movement in  February might be revised up. <\/span>A hike in hours worked is also likely.<span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The  manufacturing ISM in March should stabilise at the record levels (since  1983) seen in February, climbing to 61.5 from 61.4 before. The Empire  was mixed, showing a high activity index but a less positive breakdown.  By contrast, the Philly Fed hit its highest level since start- 1984. It  will be important to see if there are any signs of weakness in orders to  assess the negative indications contained in the durable goods orders  figures for February. <\/span>Prices and<span> <\/span>employment should remain high.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Construction  spending is expected to be up +0.5% mom in February, after falling by  -0.7% mom in January. New starts fell heavily in February, but homes  under construction fell only slightly, signalling a probably limited  contraction in residential sector spending. The nonresidential and  public components should be up after the January contraction, in light  to of the upturn in payrolls in construction in February.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Vehicle  sales are expected to rise again, to 13.9M in March from 13.4M in  February, their highest since August 2009, following the \u201ccash for  clunkers\u201d incentives. Estimates based on data from car dealership are  once again buoyant.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. 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The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the EU Commission and Italian business confidence surveys are expected to be down slightly in March, whilst remaining expansionary. 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