{"id":680,"date":"2011-04-15T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-04-15T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/04\/15\/makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-april-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-04-15T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-04-15T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-april-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-18-22-april-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 18 &#8211; 22 April 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Due out in the Euro area are the April confidence surveys (EU Comm., Bank of Belgium business<br \/>confidence, PMI and INSEE). The indicators should show a slight dip in sentiment, still leaving it<br \/>historically high and in expansionary territory.<span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span>..<span lang=\"EN-GB\">..<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp; <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  data in the United States should confirm the weakness of the real estate  market and less robust growth rates in manufacturing. The March data on  existing home sales, starts and permits should show levels close to the  bottom end of the fluctuation range seen in the last six months. The  Philadelphia Fed survey should be down in April after two months of  exceptional gains.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 18 April<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The EU Commission index of consumer confidence might ease to -11 in  April, remaining slightly above the long-term mean calculated since 1985  (-12). According to the GfK survey, household confidence slipped in  Germany, while in the peripheral countries the adoption of new  tightening measures might further dent consumer sentiment.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The NAHB index should be steady at 17 in April, as in March (when the  first improvement came after four months at 16). In last month\u2019s survey,  current sales were steady (at 17), and future sales rose to 27 from 25.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 19 April<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The composite PMI for the Euro area might ease to 57.3 in April from  57.6 in March. The dip in sentiment should be due to a slightly gloomier  view both in manufacturing (on fears of a slowdown in global demand and  a stronger euro) \u2013 we estimate 57.1 vs. 57.5 \u2013 and in services (57 vs.  57.2). The composite index would still be comfortably expansionary, and  in fact would point to a marked acceleration in GDP (in the area 1%  qoq).<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  New starts should rise to 515k in March from 479k in February,  returning them to the levels seen for most of the second half of 2010.  Starts were extremely volatile in the first two months of the year due  to the weather. In February, sites fell by 22.5% mom to 479k, just above  the all-time series low (477k in April 2009). Building permits are  expected to rise to 540k in March from 534k in February, still close to  the bottom end (544k) of the range seen since September 2010.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 20 April<br \/>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Sales of existing homes are expected to grow to 5.1M units ann. in  March from 4.88M in February. February witnessed a plunge in sales of  -9.8% mom, partly due to the weather. The sector remains weak: pending  home sales were down in December and January and expectations of an  increase in actual sales are based on the modest jump in pending home  sales in February. Home prices are falling again year-on-year in both  average and median terms; the negative trend should not change in the  coming months.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Thursday 21 April<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Germany. The IFO index might slip slightly for the second straight month  in April, easing to 110.7 from 111.1 in March. The level is still close  to the series\u2019 20-year highs. This month too should show a dip in  expectations (to 105.4 from 106.5) and a further improvement in the view  of the present situation (116.1 vs. 115.8). The level of the IFO index  remains consistent with an year-on-year acceleration in German GDP of  around 5%.<br \/>&#8211; The Bank of Belgium business confidence index might be  little changed in April, at 6.1 vs. 6.2 in March. The index, seen as a  leading indicator of the industrial cycle in Germany (the largest outlet  market for Belgian manufacturers), is not far off the series\u2019  over-30-year highs.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  The April Philadelphia Fed index should correct from the high recorded  in March (43.4, highest since January 1984). The forecast is for the  index to fall to 37.5, still close to the 2004 highs like the ISM. The  April survey should show a correction in new orders from 40.3 in April  (highest since November 1983), along with further rises in prices paid  from 63.8 in March.<br \/>Expectations six months forward should also fall  from 63 in March. The signals from manufacturing in this quarter should  point to growth stabilising\/slowing owing to the transitory effects of  the earthquake in Japan.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 22 April<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  France. Manufacturing business confidence might be unchanged at 109 in  April, well above its long-term average (100). The new orders component  could retrace after last month\u2019s jump (to -5 from -17). The levels of  the production and selling price sub-indices should remain high.<\/div>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. 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The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Due out in the Euro area are the April confidence surveys (EU Comm., Bank of Belgium businessconfidence, PMI and INSEE). The indicators should show a slight dip in sentiment, still leaving ithistorically high and in expansionary territory. &#8230;.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=680"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/680\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}