{"id":691,"date":"2011-04-29T15:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-04-29T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/04\/29\/makrooekonomische-daten-02-06-mai-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-04-29T15:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-04-29T15:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-02-06-mai-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-02-06-mai-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 02 &#8211; 06 Mai 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area, the focus will be on the ECB meeting (plus developments in the debt crisis).<br \/> Few economic data are due out: the German industry indicators (output and orders) should show&#8230;<span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp; <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">merely a \u201cnatural\u201d slowdown in March  after the boom in the first two months of the year; the second PMI  estimate for April will show broad stability (at very expansionary  levels) on theprevious month; producer prices will maintain an extremely  robust rate of growth in March; retail sales should have fallen by  1.0%m\/m.<br \/> The coming week is packed with key data in the United States. The  manufacturing ISM should correct in April, in line with the indications  of several regional surveys, while the nonmanufacturing<br \/> ISM should be up after falling in March. The employment report should  show a slight slowdown in the employment dynamic, with the unemployment  rate stabilising at the 8.8% recorded in March. Construction spending  should be up in March after the steep contraction seen in  January-February.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/>\n<p><strong>Monday 2 May<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The second  estimate for the manufacturing PMI might show a small downward revision  to 57.5 (steady vs. the previous month) in April. This value would be  more consistent with the findings of the national surveys and with some  concerns over the resilience of global demand and the appreciation of  the euro. The fist estimate for the minor countries should show an index  little changed on the previous month.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. Wages should slow by  one-tenth to 2% yoy in March. This would be consistent with  month-on-month growth of just one-tenth in the wake of the adjustments  envisaged to existing agreements. The year-on-year trend is set to slow  further, likely hitting a low around 1.6% yoy this summer. The figure  would confirm that the only price pressures are exogenous and there are  no inflation risks from pay.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211;  Construction spending is expected to be up 0.4% mom in March after  falling heavily in February (-1.4% mom). New starts bounced in March,  after plunging in February; private residential construction spending  should be up 2.1% mom, while the non-residential private component  should be steady, after rising sharply in February (+0.9% mom); the  negative trend in public construction spending should continue, holding  back the overall dynamic.<br \/>&#8211; The manufacturing ISM should fall to 60.2  in April from 61.2 in March. The production component should fall from  69 in March and the employment might correct further from 63 in March;  deliveries and inventories too should start to reflect the impact of the  Japanese earthquake. The indications from the Philly Fed are negative  and would be consistent with a fall in the ISM to close to 54; by  contrast, the NY Fed survey was very positive, indicating an improvement  in the ISM to 62. The effects of the earthquake in Japan might be  reflected negatively in the sector\u2019s performance for several months to  come, but some of the fall in the Philadelphia index is in our view a  correction following the excessive gain recorded in March.<br \/>However,  the manufacturing sector indicators probably peaked in the past months  and are likely to settle at levels consistent with positive, though  slower, expansion.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 3 May<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Producer prices are expected to be up 0.6% mom,  largely on the increases in energy prices (and to a lesser degree in  intermediate goods prices). The year-on-year trend is expected to be  steady at 6.6% (with some upside risks). The input price indices in the  PMI still signal upward pressures at the upstream end of the production  chain.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> <\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Auto sales should remain virtually steady at 13.1M units ann. in April, vs. 13.06M in March.<br \/>According  to JD Power estimates based on the survey of dealerships in the first  weeks of the month, April recorded further growth in sales to  households, vs. a correction in sales to firms.<br \/>The sector estimates  are for a slowdown in the pace of sales in the second half of the month,  as the constraints build on inventories from a shortage of parts due to  the earthquake in Japan. Late April and May sales should see a  slowdown, the duration of which will depend on the resumption of  activity in Japan and the emergence of alternative suppliers.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 4 May<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The second estimate for the service sector PMI might  confirm the first reading (56.9, down slightly vs. 57.2 in March).  Consequently, given the final reading of the manufacturing indices, the  composite PMI might be revised down by two-tenths to 57.6 (steady vs.  the previous month). The first estimate for the minor countries will  confirm that the divergence between core and peripheral countries is far  more marked in services than in industry.<br \/>&#8211; Retail sales should have  fallen by 1,0% m\/m in March as data from Germany, Spain, Italy and  France hint to a generalised weakness possible the late Easter relative  to last year distorted the March reading too. Sales would leave the  quarter dynamics at three tenths below the December level, confirming  that a meaningful recovery in household demand is not yet imminent.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the  private sector should be steady in April, 200k off the March estimate of  201k.<br \/>&#8211; The non-manufacturing ISM should rise to 58 in April, after  correcting to 57.3 in February (after two months above 59). The Beige  Book reports weak retail sales in a couple of districts, and modest  rises in the other areas; by contrast, a general improvement is recorded  in business related services; services in the real estate sector are  weak, and stagnant in financial services. Thus, overall a moderate  improvement is anticipated, with activity and employment both up on the  March levels of 59.7 and 53.7 respectively.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 5 May<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; We expect the ECB will confirm further normalisation  of monetary policy. The next hike will come before the summer, most  likely in July. The one after that should arrive in the autumn.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Germany. Factory orders might slip  slightly in March (-0.5% mom our estimate) after the boom in the first  two due of the year (+2.7% avg. January-February). The fall would be  consistent with the reduced bullishness over orders seen in the PMI.  Year-on-year growth would remain double-digit but would slow to 14.2%  from 20.1%. However, this should only be a pause within a growth trend.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Productivity growth in the first quarter should slow to +0.5% qoq from 2.6% qoq at end-2010.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<hr \/><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 6 May<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> Euro area<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Germany. Industrial production might fall slightly  after two months of strong gains (1.8% mom avg. in January-February). We  expect output to fall -0.2% mom, held back by construction after two  boom months (+35.2% mom in January and +3.4% mom in February).<br \/>The  year-on-year movement would remain robust, despite slowing to 9.8% from  14.8%. This would still be only a natural reaction after the boom of the  previous months and the trend for German industry will remain very  expansionary.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><br \/> United States<\/strong><br \/>&#8211; Non-farm payrolls are expected to be up 200k in  April, roughly in line with the average for the last two months (205k).  Private non-farm payrolls should be up 220k. Since November 2010, with  the end of the census effects, the private sector has created on average  27k more jobs than the change in total payrolls (14k in March): the  spread due to the loss of jobs in the state and local public sector  should continue for a long while yet. The manufacturing sector should  see some moderation in the pace of job creation, while the improvement  in services should continue. The unemployment rate should remain  unchanged at 8.8%. Hourly wages were unchanged in March: in April the  month-on-month movement should be in line with last year\u2019s trend, + 0.2%  mom.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the focus will be on the ECB meeting (plus developments in the debt crisis). 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