{"id":701,"date":"2011-05-23T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-05-23T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/05\/23\/makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-mai-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-05-23T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-05-23T06:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-mai-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-23-27-mai-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 23 &#8211; 27 Mai 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">In the Euro area, the May surveys are likely to start signalling a moderation in industrial confidence from the highs reached early this year. Sentiment is likely to rise further in services given the usual lag versus the industry sector.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\"> <\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The coming week brings a slew of data in the United States. In April, new home sales should be up slightly, albeit still very low; durable goods orders are expected to be down after the strong gain recorded in March; personal spending should be buoyed largely by price increases. Household confidence in May should confirm the rise seen in the advance data. The second GDP estimate is expected to be raised from the advance estimate.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The IFO index might fall to 113.7, albeit form very high historical levels. Business confidence is likely to slip to 109 in France, but we could see a modest bounce back in Italy to 103.3. The manufacturing PMI is estimated at 57.6 from 58 before, while the services PMI should climb to 57 from 56.7; the composite PMI should remain unchanged at the April level of 57.8. <\/span>We expect the EU Commission index to ease to 105.9. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">We hope for a rebound in German retail sales after two months in dip red. German Laenders data should show inflation steady at 2.4% yoy in May (2.7% yoy on the harmonised measure). <\/span>M3<span> <\/span>might accelerate to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% yoy before.<span lang=\"EN-GB\"><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Monday 23 May<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">We expect the manufacturing PMI to correct from 58 to 57.6 in May, probably marking the start of some moderation in sector growth after the exceptional recovery, notably in Germany and France. By contrast, the services PMI might recoup some of the previous month\u2019s fall, rising to 57.0 from 56.7. Thus, the composite PMI might be unchanged at 57.8, still consistent with relatively vigorous economic expansion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Tuesday 24 May<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> <strong> <\/strong> <\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Factory orders in the Euro area should be down 1.5% mom in March after five months of constant gains. <\/span>Orders should be up 3.5% qoq. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The year-on-year dynamic in orders should remain double-digit over the coming months based on sentiment surveys still buoyed by global demand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Germany. The IFO index is expected to fall to 113.7 in May from 114.2 before. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">Expectations should correct to 107.1 from 107.7, while the view of the present situation should ease to 120.4. <\/span>A gap between present situation and expectations had opened up last month. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The IFO would still be not far off its all-time high (11.3).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Germany. The breakdown of GDP growth in the first few months of the year (1.5% qoq \/ 4.8% yoy) should show that the outstanding performance of the German economy is no longer due purely to robust global demand but also to a larger contribution from domestic demand and machinery spending in particular (+1.8% qoq). Growth should slow gradually from the spring on. In yearly average terms, the German economy should be up 3.4%, well above the Euro area mean (2.0%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">France. Business confidence is expected to fall to 109 in May from 110 before. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The index would still be above the long-term mean of 99 and therefore still consistent with expansion in manufacturing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">New home sales are expected to rise slightly to 310k in April from 300k in March. The NAHB confidence index has been stuck in a narrow range (at still very low levels) for months and leaves little scope for a possible recovery in sales in the sector. The only segment showing a modest uptrend is multi-family homes: the fall in the percentage of homeowners is driving up the rental segment and condominium demand. However, multi-family units represent only a small portion of total homes under construction and do not alter the poor general outlook.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Wednesday 25 May<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Durable goods orders are expected to be down 3.2% mom in April, after + 4.1% mom in March (revised from +2.5% mom). Some of the fall expected in April is due to a negative effect on orders now regularly seen in the first month of each quarter; however, the contraction will be due predominantly to transportation: orders ex transportation should be up +1% mom. The decline in transportation is due to the correction in civil aviation orders. <\/span>The orders trend remains upward but it is weakening.<\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Thursday 26 May<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Italy. After falling to 103 in April, business confidence is expected to recover to 103.3 in May. Unlike the corresponding indices for Germany and France, the Italian indicator is just above the long-term mean and failed to surge between 4Q10 and 1Q11; this is reflected in Italy\u2019s disappointing performance compared with the other core countries, as shown in the national accounting figures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">United States<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">The second estimate of 1Q11 GDP should show an upward revision to growth, from 1.8% qoq ann. to 2.1% qoq ann. The revision should be due to slightly more robust growth in company fixed investments and inventories and to a higher consumption estimate (from 2.7% to 3% qoq ann.). Public spending should again hold back growth, falling by -4.5% qoq ann., due to state and local level tightening and to the cuts implemented at the federal level during the provisional period.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Friday 27 May<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><strong>Euro area<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Euro area. The EU Commission index of economic confidence is expected to slip to 105.9 in April from 106.2 before. The dip in sentiment should be mainly concentrated in industry, whereas an improvement is possible in services. The advance estimate suggested a fall in confidence among<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Germany. The figures from the Laender should be consistent with a 0.1% mom rise in consumer prices, fuelled by energy. Inflation is expected to steady at 2.4% yoy and at 2.7% yoy on the harmonised measure. German inflation might rise to 2.9% yoy over the summer months. The underlying dynamic should remain well below 2.0%, despite the acceleration in April.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro area. M3 should continue to accelerate to 2.5% yoy from 2.3% yoy before. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The threemonth moving average is estimated at 2.3% yoy vs. 2.0% yoy before. The acceleration in M3 is connected with the slope of the yield curve which reduces the appeal of holding the monetary assets included in M3. We expect to see confirmation of a modest acceleration in business and household loans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>United States<\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Personal spending should be up 0.4% mom in April, driven by auto and petrol, largely on account of a price effect. In real terms, the spending dynamic should be barely positive (+0.1% mom); the weekly sales figures were generally disappointing and the only real support to consumption appears to come from the automotive sector. Personal income should be up 0.4% mom, thanks to a strong labour income performance. <\/span>The saving rate should be<span> <\/span>unchanged at 5.5%. The consumption deflator should be up 0.3% mom (2.2% yoy). <span lang=\"EN-GB\">The core deflator should show an acceleration in the month-on-month dynamic to 0.2% mom: this would be the third 0.2% mom increase this year. The trend movement would rise to 1% yoy from 0.9% yoy in March. Note that in the coming months the gap with the core CPI should rapidly close and in the final portion of 2011 the core deflator should show year-on-year gains of between 1.6% and 1.8%, moving into the Fed\u2019s price stability range and clearly signalling the need for a monetary policy reversal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">Household confidence as measured by the Univ of Michigan in May (final) should confirm the advance survey figure of 72.4. The advance data showed a substantial rise in expectations to 67.4 from 61.6 in April, while the view of the present situation fell further to 80.2 from 82.5 in April. Of particular importance are inflation expectations which in the advance data showed a fall in expectations one year forward (to 4.4% from 4.6% in April) vs. a rise in expectations five years forward (to 3% from 2.9%).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. 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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the May surveys are likely to start signalling a moderation in industrial confidence from the highs reached early this year. 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