{"id":702,"date":"2011-05-27T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-05-27T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/05\/27\/makrooekonomische-daten-30-03-juni-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-05-27T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-05-27T06:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-30-03-juni-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-30-03-juni-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 30 &#8211; 03 Juni 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Euro area, the key data due out next week arrive on Tuesday 31  May: inflation might be steady at 2.8% yoy in May; unemployment is  expected to be unchanged in Italy and across the entire Euro area<span lang=\"EN-GB\">.<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"> <br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">(and  it might fall to a new all-time low in Germany); the retail sales  figures might show, ex the March-April volatility, persistent weakness  in Germany and, by contrast, some resilience in France. The second PMI  estimate should not involve major revisions to the preliminary reading.<br \/>The  coming week is packed with data in the United States. The manufacturing  surveys should show signs of weakness in activity, with the ISM and  Chicago PMI both down. The non manufacturing ISM should instead move up.  Auto sales are expected to be down sharply in May,<br \/>partly due to supply-side issues connected with the Japanese earthquake. Household confidence<br \/>should rise. The employment report should show a slowdown in employment, but only a modest<br \/>fall in the unemployment rate. Construction spending is expected to be up slightly in April.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Monday 30 May<\/strong><br \/><strong>United States<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Markets closed for holiday.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Tuesday 31 May<br \/>Euro area<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211;  Germany. Retail sales might bounce in April (we estimate 1% mom) after  the sharp contraction seen in March (-2.1% mom). The volatility might be  due to seasonal adjustments given the \u201clow\u201d Easter. Sales would thus be  on track for a contraction of -0.8% qoq in 2Q11 (after +0.3% qoq in  1Q11). The sales trend confirms that the recovery shows no sign of  extending to consumer demand.<br \/>&#8211; France. Consumer spending might  bounce by a half of one percentage point in April (after the fall of  -0.7% mom in March). Year-on-year, sales would accelerate to 4.5% yoy  (from 2.6% yoy before). France is the only major euro area country  showing satisfactory consumer demand.<br \/>&#8211; Germany. The German  unemployment rate is expected to fall to 7% in May, on a 25k reduction  in the jobless total. This would mark an all-time low for the  unemployment rate since series inception in 1991. The resilience of the  labour market is reassuring despite the gradual phasing-out of the  temporary Kurzarbeit scheme.<br \/>&#8211; Italy. The unemployment rate,  according to the preliminary estimates, might remain steady at 8.3% mom  in April, a high value relative to the average for recent years but  short of the highs recorded around 12 months ago (8.6%). Temporary  redundancy applications were also down in April (20%, back below 100M  hours (92.1 vs. 102.5 in March), signalling that the labour market is  stabilising.<br \/>&#8211; Unemployment in the Euro area might be steady at 9.9%.  The figure should confirm a persistent and broad gap between the  peripheral and core countries (notably Germany). In any case, it is fair  to say that the worst is over for the labour market in the Euro area as  a whole and the coming months should show ongoing gradual improvements.<br \/>&#8211;  The preliminary estimate for May should show Euro area inflation steady  at 2.8% yoy. The fall in energy prices seen in recent weeks has reduced  the upside inflation risks. Ex the more volatile components, the CPI  should still be under control (and might actually be down on the 1.6%  yoy in April).<br \/>&#8211; Italy. The consumer price dynamic is expected to be  up 0.1% mom in May, slowing from past months (0.5% mom in April) mainly  on account of the fall in fuel prices. Year-on-year inflation would  remain steady at 2.6% yoy. The harmonised measure should also show a  rise of just one-tenth and year-on-year inflation steady at 2.9% yoy.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">United States<br \/>&#8211;  The Chicago PMI is expected to fall to 62 in May from 67.6 in April.  The index should continue to correct from the high of 71.2 recorded in  February (highest since 1988).<br \/>Production should be sharply down from  70 in April, partly due to the temporary closure of Japanese car  factories. Orders and employment should also correct from April\u2019s still  high levels. The sector surveys show signs of weakness, partly owing to  the effects of the Japanese earthquake, partly due to a slowdown from  the very high pace of activity seen in 1Q11.<br \/>&#8211; Household confidence  as measured by the Conference Board should rise to 67 in May from 65.4  in April. The Consumer Comfort weekly index of confidence rose in the  last week. The survey should show an improvement in both the present  situation (39.6 in April) and expectations (82.6 in April, well below  the February high of 97.5). The labour market indicates improved in  April: May might bring a fresh deterioration, likely short-lived and due  to the dip in auto sector activity.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Wednesday 1 June<br \/> United States<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The ADP estimate of new non-farm payrolls in the  private sector should, according to the Bloomberg consensus, show growth  of 178k jobs, in line with the April ADP figure (+179k).<br \/>&#8211; The ISM  manufacturing index should fall to 58 in May from 60.4 in April. The  regional surveys were mixed or weak, with the Philly Fed and Richmond  Fed down heavily. The ISM should show a reduction in inventories, after  the strong gain recorded in April. Prices should also soften from the  April high of 85.5. Orders too are likely to correct (mainly on the fall  in export orders), as is production.<br \/>&#8211; Construction spending should  be up 0.4% mom in April, after +1.4% mom in March. The growth in March  was partly driven by more benign weather conditions than in the previous  months. April should show modest gains in residential building, vs.  stagnation in housing.<br \/>&#8211; Auto sales are expected to fall to 12.5M  units ann., sharply down on the first few months of the year, when  levels topped 13M units. The decline in sales likely reflects, to some  degree, the supply-side problems stemming from the Japanese earthquake.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Thursday 2 June<br \/> United States<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; Productivity growth in 1Q11 should be unchanged from the advance estimate of 1.6% qoq.<br \/>The unit labour cost should be up 1% qoq.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Friday 3 June<br \/> United States<\/strong><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8211; The May employment report should show a slowdown  in non-farm payrolls growth to +180k, from 244k in April. Non-farm  payrolls in the private sector should be up 200k. The May data are  expected to have been dented by adverse weather conditions in several  states and by the closure of car plants. The unemployment rate should  fall to 8.9% from 9% in April, owing to an expected recovery in payrolls  as measured by the household survey, amid a stable workforce. Hourly  wages should accelerate slightly to +0.2% mom from +0.1% mom in April.<br \/>&#8211;  The non manufacturing ISM is expected to move up to 54 in May from 52.8  in April. April saw a large drop, from 57.3 in March, with ample  corrections for activity, orders, employment. The trend had been down  from February\u2019s peak at 59.7, though there is room now for an upside  correction towards levels close to end-2010.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. 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The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the Euro area, the key data due out next week arrive on Tuesday 31 May: inflation might be steady at 2.8% yoy in May; unemployment is expected to be unchanged in Italy and across the entire Euro area.&#8230;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3421,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"telegram_tosend":false,"telegram_tosend_message":"","telegram_tosend_target":0,"footnotes":"","_wpscp_schedule_draft_date":"","_wpscp_schedule_republish_date":"","_wpscppro_advance_schedule":false,"_wpscppro_advance_schedule_date":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-702","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makrooekonomische-daten"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}