{"id":722,"date":"2011-06-10T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2011-06-10T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/starthostunlimiteddmffassi-ss.stackstaging.com\/bondworld.ch\/home\/sites\/20b\/7\/760c69a11c\/public_html\/investmentworld.ch\/index.php\/2011\/06\/10\/makrooekonomische-daten-10-17-juni-2011-englisch\/"},"modified":"2011-06-10T14:00:00","modified_gmt":"2011-06-10T14:00:00","slug":"makrooekonomische-daten-10-17-juni-2011-englisch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmentworld.eu\/ch\/makrooekonomische-daten-10-17-juni-2011-englisch\/","title":{"rendered":"Makro\u00f6konomische Daten &#8211; 10 &#8211; 17 Juni 2011 (Englisch)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The coming week is relatively thin on data in the Euro area. The figures   on Italy and the whole Euro area will complete the round of industrial   production data for April: we expect a small contraction but not the   start of a cycle reversal. <span lang=\"EN-GB\">&#8230;<\/span><strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><span lang=\"EN-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\">&nbsp;<\/span><span lang=\"en-GB\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<ul> <\/ul>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<ol><\/ol>\n<hr \/>\n<p> <strong><br \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inflation  in France and across the entire Eurozone in May should be  confirmed as  slowing thanks to the cooling of fuel prices; but further  falls from  the current levels will be very slow over the coming months.  Euro area  employment will continue to improve gradually.<\/p>\n<p> A slew of data  is due out in the United States. The first June surveys  should moderate  the corrections seen in May. The May PPI and CPI should  show  moderation thanks to the fall in energy prices, but the core  indices  will continue to trend gradually up. May retail sales will be  held back  by the sharp correction in the auto sector. Industrial  production  should grow in May after stagnating in April.<\/p>\n<p> <strong>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Monday 13 June<\/p>\n<p>Euro area<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Italy.  Industrial production is expected to be broadly stagnant in April (we  estimate -0.1% mom) after expanding by four-tenths in March.  Year-on-year, output would slow further, turning negative (-2.1% yoy) in  raw terms owing to fewer working days; adjusted for this effect, the  slowdown would be less pronounced (1.8% from 3.1%). In any event,  production would be on track for appreciable growth in the current  quarter, after small contractions in the previous two quarters. In  general, we expect the recovery, albeit modest, to continue in industry  in the months ahead.<\/div>\n<p> <strong>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Tuesday 14 June<\/p>\n<p>United States<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  PPI is expected to be up 0.1% mom in May, after average changes of 0.8%  mom between September and April. The headline index should show a very  negative contribution from energy, amid a still substantial and positive  rise in food. The core PPI should be up 0.2% mom, roughly in line with  the recent trend of between 0.2% and 0.3%. The core index should  continue to show a robust price dynamic in the auto sector, possibly  accelerating in the wake of the post-earthquake inventories problems<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Retail sales should be down 0.1% mom in May, driven down by the  correction in the auto sector and the petrol price. Ex auto, sales  should be up 0.4% mom. The price of petrol has fallen by 4% since the  start of May. Even though auto sales fell heavily in May according to  dealership data (-10.5%), the fall will only be partly made up by a  likely upward price effect. The weekly sales data remain moderately  positive. The Beige Book reported a slowdown in sector activity on  account of temporary factors (weather, high prices in the previous, auto  sector supply-side issues). Sales ex auto and petrol should be slightly  positive in nominal terms and should thus accelerate in real terms on  the previous months.<\/div>\n<p> <strong>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Wednesday 15 June<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p> Euro area<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Industrial  production in the Euro area is expected to be down -0.4% mom in April  after -0.1% mom in March. This would be small beer after the average  gains of 0.7% mom seen between October and February. Year-on-year,  output would slow from 5.7% to 4.6% yoy. April production fell both in  core countries like Germany, France, Holland and Austria and in  peripherals like Greece, Spain and Portugal. Industry might make no  contribution to growth this quarter, which signals the risk of a marked  slowdown in GDP from 0.8% qoq in 1Q11.<\/p>\n<p>France. Consumer prices  are expected to rise by just one-tenth in May after 0.3% mom in April.  Inflation would thus fall one-tenth to 2% yoy (2.2% on the harmonised  index). The fall in fuel prices during the month was crucial. Looking to  the coming months, France should keep inflation below the Euro area  average.<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>United States<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  CPI should be unchanged month-on-month in May. The core index should be  up 0.2% mom, the third gain of this size in four months, confirming the  uptrend in core inflation. Energy and food prices should make a negative  contribution to the monthly dynamic, for the first time in 11 months,  although trend growth should be up again (to 3.3% yoy from 3.2% yoy in  April). The core index will continue to show a positive contribution  from notional rents and rents, with a possible acceleration in the  latter item. Auto prices are still rising. Core inflation should  continue the uptrend initiated in November 2010, accelerating to 1.4%  yoy from 1.3% yoy in April.<\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The NY Fed Empire survey should fall to 11 in June, after tumbling  to 11.9 in May (-9.9 points). The May manufacturing data were uniformly  weak, and according to the Beige Book the NY district recorded a  slowdown in growth vs. steady expansion in most other areas. A further  correction in orders and activity is likely, although they should stay  positive. Prices paid should also be down, while prices received should  continue the uptrend stretching back to mid-2009.<\/p>\n<p>Industrial production is expected to be up 0.2% mom in May, after  remaining steady in April. Output will be held back by a decline in  activity in utilities owing to temperatures below the seasonal mean. The  manufacturing sector, on the other hand, should show solid growth in  light of the increase in hours worked in the sector recorded in the  employment report. The auto sector correction seen in May owing to the  effects of the Japanese earthquake should already be over and production  should rise slightly in May, followed by a more substantial bounce in  the following months. Capacity utilisation should rise to 77% from 76.9%  in April, close to the average for the last ten years (77.2% since  start-2000).<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong>  <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Thursday 16 June<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Euro area<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Euro  area inflation should be confirmed down one-tenth at 2.7% yoy in May.  Prices should have remained steady in the month. The core dynamic is  expected to edge higher, from 1.6% to 1.8% yoy. The cooling of fuel  prices in recent weeks has allayed the risks surrounding CPI. However,  inflation will fall extremely slowly and will return in line with the  ECB target between February and March.<\/p>\n<p>Euro area employment is  expected to be up slightly in 1Q11, expanding by one-tenth vs. 0.2% qoq  in 4Q10. The year-on-year change, which turned positive at end-2010 for  the first time after two years, would further improve to 0.4% from 0.2%.  Despite the persistence of a wide gap between core and peripheral  countries, Euro area employment is expected to improve further in the  coming months, albeit only slightly.<\/p><\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/>United States<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">New  starts are expected to rise to 535k in May (+2.3% mom) from 523k in  April (which corresponded to a correction of -10.6% mom). The recovery  should be robust in the multifamily unit segment, which is now set on an  uptrend (+6.6% yoy) owing to the more vigorous rental demand and a  stock of occupied units closer to the available total. The single-family  segment should also record a gain after plunging 5.1% mom in April,  whilst remaining on a very negative trend. Permits should fall to 555k  from 563k (revised from 551k), confirming the stabilisation of activity  in a narrow range since year-end 2009, at between 535k and 575k units.<\/div>\n<p> <strong><br \/><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">The  Philadelphia Fed index is expected to rise to 5 in May from 3.9 in  April. The index has fallen violently from 43.4 in March. Even though  the Beige Book reports weak activity for the district, there is scope  for a small improvement. Prices paid should continue to fall (from 48.3  in May) and orders should pick up after falling to 5.4 in May. The  employment component should stick close to the level seen in May (22.1).  The manufacturing sector should accelerate from July. <br \/><strong> <\/strong><\/div>\n<p> <strong> <\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Friday 17 June<\/p>\n<p>United States<\/p>\n<p><\/strong> <\/p>\n<div style=\"text-align: justify;\">Household  confidence as measured by the Univ. of Michigan should rise slightly to  75 in June (preliminary) from 74.3 (final) in May. The survey should  show a slight increase in both the view of the present situation and  expectations.<\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Appendix<br \/>Analyst Certification<\/strong><br \/>The financial analysts who prepared this report, and whose names and roles appear on the first page, certify that: (1) The views expressed on companies mentioned herein accurately reflect independent, fair and balanced personal views; (2) No direct or indirect compensation has been or will be received in exchange for any views expressed. Specific disclosures: The analysts who prepared this report do not receive bonuses, salaries, or any other form of compensation that is based upon specific investment banking transactions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Important Disclosures<\/strong><br \/>This research has been prepared by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and distributed by Banca IMI S.p.A. Milan, Banca IMI SpA-London Branch (a member of the London Stock Exchange) and Banca IMI Securities Corp (a member of the NYSE and NASD). Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. accepts full responsibility for the contents of this report. Please also note that Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. reserves the right to issue this document to its own clients. Banca IMI S.p.A. and Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. are both part of the Gruppo Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. are both authorised by the Banca d&#8217;Italia, are both regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and by the SEC for the conduct of US business.<br \/>Opinions and estimates in this research are as at the date of this material and are subject to change without notice to the recipient. Information and opinions have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made as to their accuracy or correctness. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The investments and strategies discussed in this research may not be suitable for all investors. If you are in any doubt you should consult your investment advisor. <br \/>This report has been prepared solely for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any financial products. It should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient\u2019s own judgement.<br \/>No Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. or Banca IMI S.p.A. entities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, consequential or indirect loss arising from any use of material contained in this report. <br \/>This document may only be reproduced or published together with the name of Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A.. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. and Banca IMI S.p.A. have in place a Joint Conflicts Management Policy for managing effectively the conflicts of interest which might affect the impartiality of all investment research which is held out, or where it is reasonable for the user to rely on the research, as being an impartial assessment of the value or prospects of its subject matter. A copy of this Policy is available to the recipient of this research upon making a written request to the Compliance Officer, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A., 90 Queen Street, London EC4N 1SA.<br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. has formalised a set of principles and procedures for dealing with conflicts of interest (\u201cResearch Policy\u201d). The Research Policy is clearly explained in the relevant section of Banca IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com).<br \/>Member companies of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, or their directors and\/or representatives and\/or employees and\/or members of their households, may have a long or short position in any securities mentioned at any time, and may make a purchase and\/or sale, or offer to make a purchase and\/or sale, of any of the securities from time to time in the open market or otherwise. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. issues and circulates research to Qualified Institutional Investors in the USA only through Banca IMI Securities Corp., 245 Park Avenue, 35th floor, 10167 New York, NY,USA, Tel: (1) 212 326 1230. Residents in Italy: This document is intended for distribution only to professional investors as defined in art.31, Consob Regulation no. 11522 of 1.07.1998 either as a printed document and\/or in electronic form. Person and residents in the UK: This document is not for distribution in the United Kingdom to persons who would be defined as private customers under rules of the FSA.<br \/>US persons: This document is intended for distribution in the United States only to Qualified Institutional Investors as defined in Rule 144a of the Securities Act of 1933. US Customers wishing to effect a transaction should do so only by contacting a representative at Banca IMI Securities Corp. in the US (see contact details above). <br \/><strong><br \/>Valuation Methodology<\/strong><br \/>Trading Ideas are based on the market\u2019s expectations, investors\u2019 positioning and technical, quantitative or qualitative aspects. They take into account the key macro and market events and to what extent they have already been discounted in yields and\/or market spreads. They are also based on events which are expected to affect the market trend in terms of yields and\/or spreads in the short-medium term. The Trading Ideas may refer to both cash and derivative instruments and indicate a precise target or yield range or a yield spread between different market curves or different maturities on the same curve. The relative valuations may be in terms of yield, asset swap spreads or benchmark spreads.<br \/><strong><br \/>Coverage Policy And Frequency Of Research Reports<\/strong><br \/>Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. trading ideas are made in both a very short time horizon (the current day or subsequent days) or in a horizon ranging from one week to three months, in conjunction with any exceptional event that affects the issuer\u2019s operations. In the case of a short note, we advise investors to refer to the most recent report published by Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A\u2019s Research Department for a full analysis of valuation methodology, earnings assumptions and risks. Research is available on IMI\u2019s web site (www.bancaimi.com) or by contacting your sales representative.<\/p>\n<p>Source: BONDWorld &#8211; Intesa Sanpaolo \u2013 Research Department<\/p>\n<p style=\"position: absolute; left: -10000px; top: 0px; width: 1px; height: 1px; overflow: hidden;\" id=\"_mcePaste\">Normal 0 14       MicrosoftInternetExplorer4<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The coming week is relatively thin on data in the Euro area. 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